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by Dr. Stanley Kalpage
On 10 January 2000, for the first time in its history, the United Nations Security Council held a meeting on a world health issue. Hitherto, the Council’s concern had been security focussed on military threats, ideology and geopolitics. Now, public health was considered to be a threat to world security. Vice-President Al Gore who presided over the Security Council meeting said that the US had decided to spend $ 325 million in the next financial year to combat AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome). Gore said: "When a single disease threatens everything from economic strength to peacekeeping, we clearly face a security threat of the greatest magnitude."
Pointing to a landmark shift in the US government’s view of stability in the post-Cold War world, Gore continued; "We must understand that the old conception of global security, with its focus almost solely on armies, ideologies and geopolitics, has to be enlarged." Environmental pollution, the spread of illegal drugs and corruption, terrorism and "the new pandemics" that cross borders and devastate entire societies pose threats that are "as grave as war itself," he said.
The global picture
According to Richard Holbrooke, US Ambassador to the United Nations, the number of people who will die of AIDS in the first decade of the 21st century will rival the number that died in all the wars in all the decades of the 20th century.
A Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS estimates that 33.6 million people, including 1.2 million children are carrying the human immune deficiency virus (HIV) that causes a collection of illnesses called AIDS. HIV is found in the blood, semen and vaginal secretions of an infected person. There is no cure for AIDS but certain prescription drugs such as AZT are used in the treatment of AIDS-related illnesses.
Since its recognition as a killer disease in the 1970s more than 16 million people have died of the disease, which destroys the body’s immune system. Some 2.2. million people died of AIDS in 1998. About 85 percent of the deaths have occurred in Africa.
By the turn of the century, it was estimated that the epidemic worldwide will have left behind 11.2 million orphans - with both parents having died of AIDS - and many of the children having the disease themselves.
Worldwide, the number of infected people continues to grow, especially fuelled by unprotected sex and sharing needles with an unprotected person.
Worrying situation in industrialised countries
In the industrialised countries of the West battling HIV rates is still a challenge; there is "extremely worrying evidence" that safe sexual practices are declining among gay men. While AIDS deaths in the United States decreased by 42 percent between 1996 and 1997, the figure dropped by only half that between 1997 and 1998.
While sub-Saharan Africa is the focus of current fears, it is not the only part of the world that in 1999 registered an increase in HIV infections. The highest rate of AIDS growth was said to be in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where the number of people infected in 1999 jumped by one-third. In the former Soviet Union the rate of AIDS infection is said to be skyrocketing.
Most victims in poor countries
The vast majority of HIV victims, nearly ninety-five percent, live in developing countries, where poverty, poor health systems and limited resources fuel the spread of the virus. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to be the worst hit, with close to 70 percent of the global total of those with HIV. Women infected with HIV outnumber infected men by a ratio of more than 6-to-5. For both sexes, life expectancy in southern Africa is expected to drop from age 59 to 45 sometimes between 2005 and 2010 because of the AIDS epidemic.
Some experts predict that in Asia, HIV infection rates will soon surpass those in Africa.
But people, worldwide are "at a turning point" in responding to the epidemic: "Never before have so many heads of state spoken out...(and) more investments are being made by the development agencies of the richer countries."
AIDS in Africa
Less than five percent of the world’s population live in Africa, yet it is home to more than 50 percent of HIV-infected people. AIDS is devastating African economies, causing the loss of much of their work force and making these countries unable to care for the victims or their survivors.
Striking across economic and educational lines, AIDS threatens to wipe out many of the gains that the struggling societies of sub-Saharan Africa have made in recent decades. The development of a preventive vaccine for containing the HIV has been slow.
As many as 16,000 new cases of HIV infection are daily reported world-wide and sub-Saharan Africa accounts for most of them. According to the World Health Organisation, 11 million Africans have so far died of AIDS, and a further 22 million are living with HIV or AIDS. Aggravating the situation, Africans cannot afford anti-viral drugs available in the industrialised world. Governments and donors have even been neglecting basic health and development programs that could at least relieve the suffering.
Cultural factors have also played a role: superstitions are being spread in some areas of Africa that the best cure for an HIV-infected man would be to sleep with a virgin. The disease thus shows further instability that, in turn, ensures the kind of desperate conditions where AIDS flourishes.
1999 African AIDS summit
In September 1999, at a week-long African AIDS summit, held in the Zambian capital Lusaka, researchers urged African governments to provide more leadership in the fight against AIDS. Not a single head of state made an appearance at that summit. AIDS activists charged that a "conspiracy of silence" had encouraged a climate in which AIDS victims are severely stigmatised. In a much-publicised case in South Africa on World AIDS Day, a woman who admitted on television that she was HIV-infected was beaten to death by neighbours in her township.
Pierre Mpele, director of the Society of AIDS in Africa says: "Today, political commitment is not sufficient in Africa. In some countries, one person out of three is infected, and yet such questions have not received serious attention."
Every minute, 10 Africans are infected with HIV. In Zambia and Zimbabwe, a child born today has a greater chance of dying of AIDS than of living free of the disease. The American White House predicts that, in the next decade, more than 40 million children in Africa will be orphaned by AIDS.
Impact on children
A United Nations report shattered notions that the AIDS epidemic is subsiding worldwide. It raised an even more alarming spectre - the effect of the disease on children and implications for the future in certain parts of the world.
The impact of the AIDS epidemic on children is said to be worse than that of decades of war. In fact, the social indicators for infant mortality and malnutrition in many African countries are equivalent to countries that have been at war for 10 or more years.
The overwhelming majority of AIDS-affected children are in Africa. Subsequently, this is where the majority of orphans are found. With nowhere else to go, thousands, for example, have flooded the streets of Zambia’s capital Lusaka.
A UN report contains dire predictions, particularly for Africa, where experts say the impact of millions of children orphaned by AIDS and abandoned is tearing at the very fabric of the entire continent. Africa has been overwhelmed by AIDS orphans - more than 10 million.
In Zambia alone, more than 360,000 children - once in 10 of the total population - have lost either their mother of both parents of AIDS. With resources already stretched to the breaking point, many Third World countries - with the focus in eastern and southern Africa - have been forced to leave millions of these youngsters to fend for themselves. Poor, malnourished, uneducated and unwanted, they represent a social plague in the years in the years to come.
United Nations launches initiative
On 7 December 1999 the United Nations launched an initiative to lower HIV infections among young people in Africa. The two-day United Nations meeting was attended by officials from Africa and UN agencies, non-governmental organisations and private companies.
The aim of the meeting was to draw up a plan to reduce infection rates by 25 percent before 2005 among Africans aged 14 to 25. "Our response so far has failed Africa," Annan said in an opening statement to the closed-door UN meeting. "From now on, let us resolve that failure is not an option.
Kofi Annan said the international community has to break the "conspiracy of silence" and stigma that surround the virus. He also said it is important to speed up vaccine development and make treatment affordable for Africans.
Africans themselves have launched a number of AIDS initiatives such as Lesotho’s decision to double its AIDS budget, Namibia’s cabinet approval for a national AIDS program, and Uganda’s success in stabilising levels of the infection with a massive information campaign.
But, as Annan said at the UN Security Council meeting on 10 January: "Africans alone cannot be held responsible for fighting the epidemic. This unprecedented crisis requires an unprecedented response - a response that makes humanity live up to its name."
Ranil wields the big stickby Deshavimala
The People’s Alliance government of President Chandrika Kumaratunga which had plans to extend the life of the present parliament and to rush through a Cross Over Bill finally decided this week to abandon both plans and work out a process to reach a consensus among all political parties to see a new constitution through. The plan to extend the life of parliament for another two years was mooted by the UNP rebels who are now called the ‘Gang of Five’ in PA circles. They who worked very hard to achieve this objective met about 30 UNP Parliamentarians, hosted them to dinners and tea parties to get their support. While some UNP MPs kept their meetings with the rebels a secret, the others confessed to their leader Ranil Wickremesinghe of the meetings they had with the rebels in the late evenings in the week gone by.
Many senior PA ministers disliked the move to extend the life of the present parliament and some ministers after the cabinet meeting last Wednesday who were annoyed by this approach of the rebels labelled them as the ‘Gang of Five’ trying to dictate terms to the government .
A very senior cabinet minister had quipped, ’Very soon Mangala will lose his place in the Palace because the gang leader looks smarter than him’. Even the Cross Over Bill was an idea that emanated from the Gang of Five, who managed to convince the President saying that they would bring at least another fifteen UNPers to their fold. The government too favoured the bill which had provision only for one way traffic in parliament and gave time till early this week for the rebels to conclude the assignment to bring more green men into the blue fold.
Though the rebels succeeded in holding talks with some UNPers nothing practical happened. In the meantime, the government was making preparations to rush through the Bill as a matter of national Importance’ to the Supreme Court. It was even ready to call an emergency session of parliament next week to debate the bill.
While the government awaited to rush through this bill in that manner it was also waiting to know what would transpire at last Monday’s UNP joint meeting of the parliamentary group and the Working Committee.
UNP Leader Ranil Wickremesinghe who was aware of the behind the curtain operation by his rebels at the outset of the meeting was critical of those who had talks with the rebels on the Cross Over move. Angry Wickremesinghe told the meeting that such talks should have been held with his or the party Chairman’s and the General Secretary permission. He said he would not accept lame excuses after talks are held. Matara District MP Lakshman Yapa Abeywardene close confidante of Wickremesinghe said the party should not try to look after the interests of those who have left and added that the party had one leader and that was Ranil Wickremesinghe.
UNP’s Mahiyangana MP, Lakshman Seneviratne and Moneragala District MP Rangith Maddumabandara joined Abeywardene in condemning those who held talks with the rebels. Seneviratne, son of fomer UNP Labour Minister Capt. C. P. J. Seneviratne who opposes those who try to betray the leadership was expelled by President Premadasa for trying to impeach him in the company of Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamini Dissanayake. When Seneviratne voiced his opposition to those who spoke to the rebels some in the gathering whispered to each other probably they were recalling Seneviratne’s past.
The pint sized Mervyn Silva from Hambantota, one of those who talked with rebel Susil Moonesinghe and later apprised Wickremesinghe about those talks took the floor at this point with eyes directed at Seneviratne.
Mervyn an outspoken man asserted that there was no need to penalise any member for having talks with the rebels as the Cross Over Bill was a dead subject. ’We have personal relationships and that is not a concern of others’, he added looking at Seneviratne. Ravi Karunanayake chipped into say that there was no necessity of talking about a cross over bill as the party should not favour any extension of the life of parliament. He said the UNP must be ready to face a general election at anytime .’The rebels are fighting for their own survival and the UNP should not be a party to the game that was played by the five rebels.
The topic changed when Rukman Senanayake got up to express his concern about the UNP man in the political wilderness Sirisena Cooray. Rukman appeared to be the latest sympathiser of Cooray when he said he was even prepared to vacate his seat in the Working Committee to accommodate Cooray. Rukman then said that not only Cooray but others who are also sidelines should be brought back to the fold and warned that such a step would avert a disaster.
Wickremesinghe listened carefully to what Rukman had to say but did not reply. Others at the meeting knew that Rukman pleading on behalf of Cooray wont succeed due to what take Cooray had told about him in public many times. Rukman was unaware with meantime, Cooray had issued a statement very critical of Wickremesinghe’s leadership to the ‘Mid Week Mirror’ for publication on Wednesday. In that statement Cooray had stated that if the UNP wanted to come back to power, it had to change Wickremesinghe’s leadership. Though Cooray had been criticising Wickremesinghe in many times, the latter chose to ignore the man and his criticism.
Rukman’s pleadings will have no effect in UNP circles as Cooray himself is aware that the door is closed for him as long as Wickremesinghe holds the reins.
Cooray has now decided to come out as the leader of an Independent group to contest the next general election. Senior UNPers say that Rukman is wasting his time Wickremesinghe may distance him for the latter’s concern for Cooray. Cooray has already started his work in the Independent group and has informed UNPers in Colombo Central that he would be contest as an Independent candidate.
After Rukman made his plea on behalf of Cooray, former Education and Cultural Affairs Minister W. J. M. Lokubandara spoke about the downfall of the party and complained that the party did not perform well at the right moment failed to capitalise on PA’s mistakes and reacted late to the errors of the PA. Other at the meeting were seen nodding in favour of what Lokubandara said. Lokubandara cited the Acting Elections Commissioner’s case and said that it would have been more honourable for the party to have stayed out of the case rather than agreeing with the Attorney General on the issue. The UNP leader tried to explain that he acted upon the advice given by the legal experts in the party.
Lokubandara who appeared annoyed dismissed the explanation saying that the party had suffered many set backs due to its’ lethargic approach. Others at the meeting appeared to be in favour of what Lokubandara said over the explanation of the party leader. Lokubandara expressing much concern about the crisis situation in the party said,’ have discussed an action plan with Mr. Ronnie De Mel and if it is put into place we can fix the PA’. Wickremesinghe asked Lokubandara about the plan and Ronnie De Mel said the party should first bring a motion in Parliament to scrap the Executive Presidency a motion would be a challenge to the PA which promised to scrap it and explained that it was one way for the party to come to power.
He said that the country in the future could not expect free and fair elections and urged the leader to pressurise the government to appoint the three commissions called for by the UNP. Wickremesinghe agreed to the plans of De Mel and assured that steps would be taken to implement them and also noted that he would make some changes to the party structure.
Wickremesinghe told the members to make their views on the two National List vacancies in Parliament. Former Minister A. R. M. Munsoor who held the portfolio of Trade in the Premadasa government opposed the move to appoint Segu Issadeen for one of the vacancies. Issadeen was the former SLMC Chairman who was expelled for confronting the SLMC leadership on party matters. Issadeen’s name was proposed by a UNP Committee which comprised Muslim politicians which included M. H. Mohamed and Imtiaz Bakeer Markar. Mohamed was one who opposed Issadeen at that committee and Bakeer Markar favoured Issadeen. When Munsoor raised his objection, Wickremesinghe lost his cool and warned, ’Let me do the way that I want’. Munsoor was shocked by Wickremesinghe’s statement.
Then the Lanka Jathika Estate Union Worker’s General Secretary Raja Seneviratne was opposed to accommodated former UNP State Minister S. Sellasamy to the UNP. Wickremesinghe lost his cool again to warn Seneviratne. He said that if he cannot act the way he wanted then the issues should be put before a committee. Thumping the desk he said,’ Some of you wont allow me to work the way I want’.
The UNP General Secretary Gamini Athukorale seated next to Wickremesinghe did not know that he was the next man to be axed by the Leader. Pruning down the powers hitherto enjoyed by Athukorale at Siri Kotha, Wickremesinghe announced that a committee would be appointed to look after the administration and the functions at the party headquarters. Athukorale looked a dejected man when this announcement was made but others appeared happy over the move to slash his powers. Wickremesinghe giving an excuse for the move said that the new step would help Athukorale to concentrate more on his work in the Ratnapura District. The four members appointed for the task at Siri Kotha were Charitha Ratwatte, Daya Pelpola, Daham Wimalasena and Tilak Marapona. However, several members present appeared unhappy over these appointments as many MPs in the UNP say that these men close to the leader have no rapport with grassroots level men in the party.
Wickremesinghe also appointed Ananda Kularatne to Head the UNP Yovun Peramuna and Renuka Herath as the leader of the UNP Lak Vanitha Movement. These two appointments were not popular with the party men. Wickremesinghe told the meeting that he was appointing these two as the Peramuna and Vanitha movement have flopped over the years with no expansion in the membership.
MPs say that Kularatne and Herath are not popular among some grass root level MPs and they would find it difficult to work in rural areas to strenghten the organisations. Majority of the MPs feel that the party propaganda unit should be revamped.
The PA Ex-Co
The PA Exe-Co met for the first time this year under the Chairmanship of President Chandrika Kumaratunga on Friday(14). As the PA had dropped the idea of an extension to the life of the present parliament much attention was focused on the Cross Over Bill in which the UNP rebels played an active role. President Kumaratunga was of the view that the rebels would succeed in bringing in more UNP men to support her devolution package. Though the rebels were busy tapping the UNP men, the Green leader was aware as to what was happening behind the curtain. Wickremesinghe was playing for time to ensure that there would be no more men to join the rebel ranks. Unaware of Wickremesinghe’s move, the rebels went on tapping even men who were close to Wickremesinghe and some like Mervyn Silva who never kept secrets.
The Cross Over Bill was given prominence in PA quarters and it was the first subject on the PA Ex-Co agenda. While SLMC leader Ashraff had reservations about the bill, the President assured him that she would not absorb any SLMC member who tried to cross over. Following this assurance the PA was of the view that Ashraff’s support was also on the cards. When the matter was put forward there was no opposition and it was decided to treat the bill as an urgent one of national importance to use it to get the two thirds majority in the House to see the new constitution through.
A Committee was also appointed to finalise the draft constitution including electoral reforms within three weeks. The President named the members to the Committee immediately from the PA constituent parties saying that she was keen to implement a new constitution soon. The President stated that her government would seek the cooperation of the UNP once the constitutional reforms including the package was finalised before it was put to parliament.
The President then spoke about the electoral reforms. The members present discussed the German model of election with fifty per cent rotation on the first past the post system and the balance on the PR system. SLMC leader at this point moved that the five per cent cut off point should be removed and the President agreed. The Ex-Co decided to go ahead with the German model to hold future elections and hoped to ensure it in the new constitutional reforms.
The Ex-Co decided to inform the UNP rebels that the Cross Over Bill was being supported only to get the two thirds majority and not for any other purpose .This decision meant that the government as a whole was opposed to the move to extend the life of Parliament. President Kumasratunga told the Ex-Co that she would not resort to undemocratic methods like the UNP to put off elections or to extend the life of parliament with the Pot and Lamp game. She categorically said,’ I don’t like to be another J. R. Jayewardene to play a game of pot and lamp’. This statement was received with a loud applause and laughter.
The subject of the Executive Presidency was then discussed as the PA promised to abolish it in 1994. After lenghty discussions the members agreed that modifications must be introduced to the system while retaining it. The current provisions of the package will be amended accordingly to include the Executive Presidency with modifications. The PA is of the view that if they absorb more UNP MPs they would find it difficult to accommodate them in the nomination list for the next election. It is already experiencing that problem with the five already in the fold. The President is pushed into embarrassment to accommodated both Jeyaraj Fernandopulle and Wijayapala Mendis from Katana.
MEP leader Dinesh Gunawardene and his party to supported the President at the Presidential election and the PA seniors say that Dinesh should be given priority in the Avissawela-Homagama area over Susil Moonesinghe. Rebels Amunugama and Nanda Mathew face the same plight in Kandy and Ratnapura. PA men in the Kandy District claim that Amunugama made no contribution during the presidential election as the PA vote did not increase in Harispattuwa and Galagedera. The PA knows that the rebels are compelled to support the government on the moves event they don’t like then because they have no place in the UNP.
Ranil’s Letter
UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe gave another shock to the rebels on Wednesday when he made an historic speech in Parliament extending his support for the package. Wickremesinghe while extending his support with ‘reservations’ said that if the government had no way out he was prepared to give the required support to implement the package. Wickremesinghe has now put the ball in Kumaratunga’s court along with an official letter to her expressing his desire to help her if she had no other alternative to introduce the new constitution. With Wickremesinghe taking this stand, the rebels now know that all their exercises to grab more men from the UNP has proved futile. The UNP leader has now kept his cadres intact as there is no need for them to jump sides.
The UNP leader’s statement which came at an unexpected moment surprised government ranks in parliament when discussing the setting up of a Council for the Elders. Wickremesinghe said that he was opposed to the concept of regional councils which endagers the unitary character of the country and added that his proposals for the three Independent Commissions on Elections, Police and Public Service should be incorporated under a new constitution. Two days before at the UNP joint meeting he assured Ronnie De Mel that he would push for the three commissions as De Mel wanted them to ensure free and fair elections in the future. Wickremesinghe said he hoped that a response would come from the President early to his offer.
The PA Committee appointed by the President to go into the constitutional reforms for a new constitution early in Parliament met under her chairmanship on Thursday morning at Temple Trees. Mrs. Kumaratunga told the members at the out set that she had received a letter from the Leader of the Opposition but did not disclose its details in the latter. She said she was in the process of studying it. Members welcomed the statement by Wickremesinghe the previous day in parliament saying it was a positive move that would help the government to end this long drawn battle for a new constitution. The Committee was of the opinion that no time should be wasted like the Select Committee process to finalise the matter. The President told the Committee that the draft must be finalised within two weeks to make it open to the UNP and other parties to which the members agreed.
The members present discussed the participation of the LTTE on constitutional reforms and proposed to the President to make open the final draft to the LTTE if it was keen on a lasting solution to the problem. The President said that she had no objection to that and welcomed not only the LTTE but also other parties into the fray to help find a solution. Some members pointed out that there were areas in the draft constitution released in October 1997 which needed more attention to reach a consensus. The President said that the committee should identify those areas to find remedies acceptable to all parties. The Committee proposed to the President to discuss Wickremesinghe’s letter with other political parties. The President did not reply as she earlier said she was in the process of studying the document. PA sources said that there would be a favourable response from the President to Wickremesinghe’S letter soon. The PA like in the past is not prepared to offer much time to the UNP when the draft is finalised and released to them for their observations.
The parcel Bomb
On Monday the presidential security staff detected a parcel bomb reported to have been addressed to the President. It is a known fact that the Head of State does not open her mail as there is a separate staff in the Secretariat for that purpose. Therefore it is certain that the letter bomb would have caused no harm to the President and it could be assumed that it was meant to cause harm either to the staff or the property at the Secretariat. The LTTE being aware of this ground situation at the Secretariat that the President does not open her mail may never have intended to give the President another chance to say that a second attempt was made on her life, But the state controlled ‘Dinamina’ ran banner headlines to say it was the second attempt on the President’s life though everyone knew it could never be so as the President DO not open her mail herself. The Police was directed to investigate as to how the letter bomb addressed to the President came through the Central Mail Exchange without proper detection at that corner.
With the government abandoning the move to extend the life of parliament and leaving out the Cross Over Bill, the UNP rebels now have to fight for their survival as it’S just two weeks more for the Supreme Court to give the ruling on their expulsions. The PA appeared not much concerned about the five men who crossed over to back them.
All their efforts to help the PA too has proved futile. Wickremesinghe has played his cards beautifully so that the MPs under him now await the reaction of the President to Wickremesinghe’s letter. At the joint meeting they pledged their support to the UNP leader and even after the meeting there were no reports upto Friday that any member had met the rebels for talks. The ninety day period covering the expulsions end on February 05.
The Supreme Court will continuously hear the case for three days from next Wednesday. Therefore the judgement is likely to be delivered on the eve of the 52nd Independence day of the country. While the five rebels are confident that they would win, the UNP is more confident that the judgement will come in their favour like in the Lalith Athulathmudali, Gamini Dissanayake expulsion case during the Premadasa regime.
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Of elephants and ostriches— rejoinder to ‘Sathya’by Tisaranee Gunasekara
"When life and the world are in pieces
The German professor will have a thesis
He can make sense of things when it matters,
Serve up a system for better or worse,
With his cast-off night caps and dressing gown tatters
He’ll stop up the holes in the universe." World-view - Heinrich HeineI call it the SLFPisation of the UNP and the Bandaranaikisation of the UNP leadership. The theme is a very familiar one. Since 1977, the SLFP did not lose a single election; its enemies won through unfree and unfair means; Sirima Bandaranaike did not suffer a single electoral defeat; she was deprived of her victory by her various enemies. So it went on for 17 long years - the UNP kept on winning and the SLFP kept on losing. And with time the SLFP became accustomed to and even comfortable with the prospect of electoral defeat. After all, they lost not because the electorate rejected them; they lost because their opponents did not play fair. Thus there was absolutely no need to change anything - not the leadership and not the policies. One only had to wait till one’s opponents lost the will to fight and the desire to win.
Today the UNP under the leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe has embarked on a similar course. They too are getting accustomed to the idea of successive electoral debacles. The only activity after each election consists of blaming the opponents for winning through foul means and reaffirming total faith in the infallibility of the Leader and the Leader’s policies. Having made these obligatory noises and gestures of obeisance, the party then once more reverts to waiting with complaisance for the next election - and the next defeat.
Mr. (I hope I got that right) Sathya’s reply to me in the Sunday Island of Jan. 16th, 2000 is symbolic of this particular worldview cum mode of political existence. He believes that, that there was nothing wrong with either Ranil Wickremesinghe or his policies. According to Mr. Sathya there was no understanding between Ranil Wickremesinghe and the LTTE. "As a responsible leader he stated his proposals for solving the ethnic issue..". The proposal was handing over the North East to the LTTE for two years via an interim council. As Ranil himself said: "So what’s wrong with giving the North East to the LTTE for two years; let’s try it; if it doesn’t work we’ll take it back!". That was not enemy propaganda; that explanation-justification of Ranil’s proposal was in the video released to the media by Ranil Wickremesinghe himself. Going by the LTTE’s performance, past and present, what possible conclusion can one derive from this statement? Either Ranil Wickremesinghe was stupid enough to believe that he can take back the North East from Prabhakaran after the LTTE has dominated it for two years. Or he had/has a quid-pro-quo understanding with the LTTE:
North East for Tamil votes
Unfortunately for Ranil Wickremesinghe a majority of the electorate did not regard his generous offer to the LTTE as an attempt (even a misguided one) to solve the ethnic problem; they perceived it as a ‘territory for votes’ deal between Ranil and the LTTE. Confirmation was supplied by pro-Ranil UNP parliamentarian from Batticaloa, Ali Zaheer Maulana who publicly stated that the UNP has the support of the LTTE (this was transmitted by Reuters); and by the Bishop of Batticaloa who said (in an interview) that the people of the North East are going to vote for the UNP because the LTTE has clearly indicated that this is their preference. That was why, as Mr. Sathya himself admits the LTTE bomb contributed to Ranil Wickremesinghe’s defeat. After all, a similar LTTE bomb blast which killed Gamini Dissanayake in 1994 did not work in favour of his widow, despite the fact Chandrika was officially negotiating with the LTTE at that time.
Mr. Sathya tries to justify Ranil Wickremesinghe’s pro-LTTE stand by equating his offer to the Tigers with President Jayewardene’s proposal for the setting up of an interim council. That proposal was made by President Jayewardene in the eighties - before the LTTE started three wars, firstly by going back on its understanding with India and subsequently by unilaterally breaking its negotiations with two Sri Lankan administrations (those of Ranasinghe Premadasa and Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga). It was also before the LTTE assassinated Ranasinghe Premadasa, Rajiv Gandhi, Ranjan Wijeratne, Gamini Dissanayake and Lalith Athulathmudali. Therefore the two proposals cannot be compared in any way. President Jayewardene’s proposal was a sincere attempt to solve the ethnic problem. Ranil Wickremesinghe’s proposal, coming after the LTTE started three wars and killed a number of top Sri Lankan and Indian leaders, is either an act of unparalleled stupidity or an act of unpardonable perfidy. Incidentally Mr. Sathya, Mr. Wickremesinghe did not condemn the ‘LTTE bomb blast’; he condemned the ‘bomb blast’ and left the LTTE out. In fact during the entire election campaign Mr. Wickremesinghe never once said a word critical of the LTTE - not even after Madhu. In fact he and his acolytes sounded jubilant whenever the LTTE scored a victory over the Sri Lankan Forces.
Rigging
According to Mr. Sathya apart from the LTTE bomb blast it was "....the flagrant violation of democratic election procedures which gave official victory to the PA candidate" (Italics mine - TG). All I want to know is did Ranil Wickremesinghe expect the PA to hold a completely free and fair election? The statements he made prior to t-he elections clearly indicated that he did not. Which was why he wanted the UNPers to go to the polling booths not on the 21st morning but on the 19th night. The fact that a sizeable segment of the UNP did not go to the polling booths even on election day (and that is what I proved through my statistics last time) shows that Ranil Wickremesinghe is incapable of inspiring his own party men and women, let alone floating voters and first time voters.
Mr. Sathya considers crowd attendance at electoral rallies to be a superior indicator of popular choice than official election results. If so the JVP (and not the UNP) should have won the Presidential election of 1982. The JVP lost because in this far from perfect world, power usually accrues to the ‘official’ victor of any electoral contest, based on the official results rather than crowd attendance at election rallies. Therefore a serious political party cannot afford to ignore figures, unless it is satisfied with crowning itself the unofficial victor and thus languish in the opposition for decades. Though it is undeniable that election malpractices took place, that factor cannot used to explain away the PA’s huge majority of around 709,409 votes. And if
in fact the PA did succeed in stuffing the ballot boxes to the tune of more than 700,000 votes, then that is the clearest indicator of the ineffectiveness of the Ranil Wickremesinghe leadership and the urgent need to replace him - before the PA increases its majority to a million votes by stuffing ballot boxes at the upcoming Parliamentary election.
Another important point is that there does not seem to be any correlation between the degree of election related violence (as reported by the CMEV and published in the Sunday Leader) and the UNP’s performance. For example, according to the CMEV, the province with the lowest incidence of election related violence (out side of the North East) was the Southern Province. But it is precisely in the Southern province the UNP got the lowest average vote in the country - 37.5% (5.21% lower than its national average). And the number of votes polled by Ranil Wickremesinghe in the Southern province is lower not only than the number of votes polled by the UNP at the 1994 Parliamentary election but also than the number of votes polled by the UNP at the crucial Southern Province election in March 1994 (See Table I)
Therefore the argument that the UNP lost because of electoral malpractices is not even sufficient as a fig leaf. There were malpractices and they served to enhance the PA’s majority. But the UNP lost because of the weakness of its Presidential candidate, his policies and his lack of leadership qualities. Mr. Sathya is right when he says that a majority of Sinhalese lost faith in the PA and its leader due to their dismal performance in office (and their anti-people policies particularly in the socio-economic sphere). In fact as Sirisena Cooray repeatedly stated this is the most unpopular government in the history of post-independence Sri Lanka. Only Ranil Wickremesinghe could have performed the almost impossible feat of making Chandrika seem the lesser of two evils. And he did it in grand style!
Incidentally Mr. Sathya, when one talks about Ranil Wickremesinghe’s weak leadership one is not referring to his physique but his leadership style, policies and character. Therefore your attempt to defend Ranil by saying that Mahatma Gandhi was "a frail man with a frail spine" is as ridiculous as Ranil Wickremesinghe’s statement about giving the North East to the LTTE for two years and taking it back afterwards if the Tigers do no play ball! Mahatma Gandhi was indeed a frail man (though his spine was not weak even physically, as his medical records prove) with an iron will and an indomitable spirit. Ranil Wickremesinghe far from being frail physically displays a tendency towards corpulence, while all his will power is directed at clinging to the Party leadership at all costs and sabotaging Premadasa Commemorations (though I must point out that all such attempts have ended in failure). Mr. Sathya is obviously quite partial to such sleights of hand making asathyaya seem like sathyaya - for example his statement that Rev. Gangodawila Soma did not ask the electorate to spoil their votes! Rev. Soma not only made this appeal using all the media at his disposal; he even published leaflets with the same message (I am a fortunate possessor of such a leaflet which was distributed at the Borella bus stand a couple of days before the election, by some youthful and grim faced adherents of Rev. Soma).
Mr. Sathya says that the UNP lost in 1994 because of ‘Dooshanaya’ and ‘Bheeshanaya’. Wrong. The UNP lost in 1994 because the LTTE killed President Premadasa and his successors allowed his winning electoral coalition to fall apart. The LTTE also decimated all the alternate leaders of the UNP. As for Dhooshanaya and Bheeshanaya, if that is a problem then how come Mr. Sathya is an uncritical supporter of Ranil Wickremesinghe of Batalanda and Gonawala Sunil fame?
Ranil vs UNP
The choice before the UNP today is a simple one. Either it allows itself to become a victim of the kind of escapist fantasies Mr. Sathya indulges in (in this fantasy world Ranil Wickremesinghe is the unofficial victor and therefore the unofficial Mr. President) and wait patiently until the PA tires of power and of winning. Like the SLFP did after 1977. or the UNP can decide to dump Ranil Wickremesinghe, thereby paving the way for the reinvigoration of the party and its possible victory at the upcoming Parliamentary election. It is important to bear in mind that there are no half way houses. Because the problem is Ranil Wickremesinghe. It cannot be solved by giving Karu Jayasuriya more photo/interview opportunities or by replacing Gamini Athukorala with some one else (even if that some one else is Sirisena Cooray - because as Cooray has clearly stated on more than one occasion not even he can lead the party to victory if it is burdened by the Leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe). Therefore UNPers at all levels should decide to whom they owe the first loyalty - Ranil Wickremesinghe or the Party. Because if Ranil Wickremesinghe remains the leader, the UNP will continue to weaken as more and more party faithful at all levels leave in disgust and despair. And this process of political and electoral debilitation will continue irrespective of whether those who leave the party join the PA, contest separately or simply retire. Because if there is no off shoot of the UNP to vote for, those voters who are disgruntled with the Ranil Wickremesinghe leadership will opt for the JVP — as the only viable alternative to the PA. A repetition of what happened to the SLFP in the eighties.
Time is running out, for the UNP and therefore by extension, the people and the country.
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