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Conscription rears its head again
LTTE’s Jaffna gamble fails as Northeast Monsoon subsides

By Our Defence Correspondent
As the Northeast Monsoon begins to subside gradually, Sri Lanka’s armed forces and the LTTE are preparing for a crucial phase in the war.

Fresh from her victory in the recent election. What will President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s new military strategy be? Now that the rains are dying down. Weather conditions are getting to the point that the army should launch operations.

In addition. The failure of the LTTE, attempt to overrun the Jaffna Peninsula, leaves the initiative squarely with the armed forces for the moment.

The LTTE had gambled on forcing their way into the Jaffna Peninsula, by attacking the series of army camps around Paranthan. Elephant Pass. Kaddaikadu and Vettilaikerni in December, fighting their way through the ferocity of the monsoon.

Although hard pressed. The army re-grouped, withdrew from some areas, and held off the Tigers. Whose most ferocious attacks came only a few days before tile presidential election.

Since then the Tigers were regrouping and recovering from their casualties. On the army side. New units were being rushed in, to stabilize the defence lines in the Jaffna Peninsula. Expecting that the LTTE might make a final assault before the monsoon rains ended.

But this major assault never came.

It is now clear that tile LTTE’s casualties in the Wanni and Jaffna battles of November and December were too severe for it to launch another wave of attacks. And army units all along the Jaffna Peninsula are breathing easier now.

The December battles are significant in that the‘- were the first attempt by the LTTE. To retake the Jaffna Peninsula, since the army began its series of operations to capture the Tigers’ stronghold in September 1995 and ended by taking the entire Peninsula by :\law 1 1996.

Since then, there had been nuisance attacks almost daily by LTTE infiltrators, mostly in the form of grenade attacks and pistol shootings. But the Tigers did not make any attempt to try to re-enter the Peninsula in force? Until last December.

It remains to be seen what will happen next.

The army is mindful of the fact that it has not launched a major operation in the north in more than four months. The excuse was the series of defeats in November that caused a need to regroup and consolidate, and the Jaffna situation in December and January, coupled with the monsoon rains.

But now, all that is over. But does the army have the strength to launch anything more than a limited operation? Or will the army’s top brass take the easy way out, and wait for the new recruitment drive to start, banking on the fact that the :LTTE strength is at a low ebb as well?

From the LTTE side, cadres are still concentrated around the Elephant Pass-Paranthan areas, obviously expecting the army to try to retake the areas it lost around Vettilaikerni and Paranthan.

There seem to be no moves to stage a major attack on the forces for the moment, obviously due to casualties.

The army’s stated objective of recruiting 15,000 new soldiers is clearly

censored.

With the present war-weariness that is sweeping the nation, there seems little likelihood of achieving anything like that total. Although the downturn in the economy will bring in a fair number of unemployed youth to swell the numbers, this will never be the main area of recruitment.

Unpopular

Meanwhile, top defence ministry circles were once again abuzz with talk that President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga may consider bringing in conscription after the impending general election. The election is due by mid-August, and the president will clearly make no unpopular moves until after the polls. However, the official stand on the issue by the ministry and the army is that conscription is not being considered right now.

But if the recruitment drive is unsuccessful, and the People’s Alliance wins the election, as is expected, then conscription is a strong possibility.

Meanwhile, on the peace talks front, a mid-level Norwegian delegation arrived in Colombo on January 22 and started talks with Tamil parties.

It is led by Norwegian State Secretary (Deputy Minister) Leiv Lunde. They have so far members of the TULF, EPDP, PLOTE and TELO, and significantly, the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress. This is clearly in an effort to gauge the opinions of the Tamil and

Muslim communities, before discussions begin between Sri Lankan government officials and the Norwegians.

The Norwegian activities are on a relative low key at the moment, with Mr. Lunde’s meetings with Acting Foreign Minister Lakshman Kiriella and UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe being the highlights of the visit. To their credit? The Norwegians are not making any fuss, or giving any promises, but going about the matter in a systematic way. The Scandinavian countries, which have had no military conflicts since World War II, have been involved in peacemaking efforts around the world in the last half century, and Sri Lanka is just one more.

The Norwegian involvement is likely to increase gradually, with the next step being a visit to Colombo by Norwegian Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek, who will meet the president and Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar.

Not clear

It is not clear when the Norwegians will bring the LTTE into the equation, and start discussions with the Tigers, which will obviously be done with LTTE representatives in Europe. But direct talks between the government and the LTTE are still some way off, even with the facilitation of the Norwegians.

Meanwhile, the LTTE continues its series of bombings that are obviously aimed at creating mayhem. The Vavuniya blast on Thursday was cleverly planned and executed, with the blast being timed to perfection, occurring when the Vavuniya post office was filled with soldiers and policemen who had just received their pay packets and were sending money home through money orders.

The Tigers have turned the Claymore mine into a devastating weapon of destruction by modifying it. Claymores are weapons that have been used on the bafflefield for decades, but it is clear that the Tigers have done a lot of research and modification to suit it to their purpose.

With the armed forces adopting a strategy in the Colombo area of clamping curfews and searching Tamil neighbourhoods, which have been extended as far as Gampaha and Negombo, the LTTE is likely to curtail its activities in the capital for a while, and go after easier targets in the north and east, where the bombers blend into the general Tamil population.

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