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Government in dilemma over ceasefire

By Our Defence Correspondent
The government is in a quandary over the LTTE’s calls for a ceasefire, to go hand in hand with the peace talks that are to start up soon, according to Defence Ministry sources.

President Chand-rika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga is firmly opposed to accepting a unilateral ceasefire, believing that the LTTE will only use it to strengthen its military capabilities, and then stage surprise attacks once again, as it has in the past, sources said.

The Tigers shattered the last truce on April 19, l995, by attacking navy gunboats in Trincomalee harbor. Over the following two months, the Tigers attacked and overran dozens of army camps and police stations in the Eastern Province, before their military offensive ran out of steam.

The LTTE had used the ceasefire, which lasted for exactly 100 days, to bring in arms and ammunition, and recruit thousands of new cadres. They had also moved a huge arsenal of weapons and ammunition to the east, taking advantage of the fact that Sri Lanka’s armed forces were powerless to stop them during the truce.

The previous ceasefire in 1989/90, between the Premadasa regime and the LTTE, which lasted 13 months, ended in exactly the same fashion.

However, the problem with trying to hold peace talks without an accompanying ceasefire, is that the negotiations would be disrupted by ongoing fighting, such as army operations and LTTE bomb blasts.

Such was the situation in October of 1994, when negotiations which were going on in Jaffna had to be temporarily suspended when the LTTE assassinated UNP Presidential Candidate Gamini Dissanayake at a political rally at Thotalanga, in a suicide bombing that killed 60 people.

Talks did not start up again until January of 1995.

Last Wednesday’s visit by Norwegian Foreign Minister Knut Vollebaek definitely heralded the start of negotiations. Although direct talks between the government and the LTTE have not begun yet the Norwegians are in touch with the Tigers.

At the moment, the modalities of peace talks are being discussed, which means that it is still being decided when, where and how to have the negotiations.

Minister Vollebaek left Colombo a very satisfied man, having achieved much during his whirlwind visit.

The Norwegian team arrived on Wednesday at 6.25 a.m. on Gulf Air flight GF 142, and were received by a team from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs which included Foreign Secretary Lionel Fernando, and Chief of Protocol I. Ansar. Norwegian Ambassador to Sri Lanka, Jon Westborg, was also at the airport and joined Minister Vollebaek’s team. Interestingly, Lionel Fernando was the key member of Sri Lanka’s last delegation to peace talks.

The VIP’s went immediately to the residence of the Norwegian Ambassa-dor in Colomho, for a closed-door briefing by embassy officials.

Their first official call was on Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, at 11 am, at the Ministry premises in Fort. Apart from Minister Vollebaek and the ambassador, there were two other Norwegian officials, Press Spokesman Ingvard Havnen, and Executive Officer Ms. Kiersti Tromsdal.

Kadirgamar’s team was comprised of himself, Lionel Fernando, High Commissioner to India Mangala Moonasinghe, director General of Economic Affairs C.D. Casiechetty, Director General for South Asia and SAARC Romesh Jayasinghe, Director of Publicity Ravinatha Ariya-singe, and Director of Political Affairs A. M. J. Sadiq.

After lunch, the team called on Opposition Leader Ranil Wickrema-singhe, at 3 pm, at his Official Residence at Cambridge Terrace in Colombo 7.

The final event of the day, and the most crucial, was the meeting with the president at Temple Trees at 4 pm.

The meeting which started late due to the Norwegian delegation’s tight schedule, went on for more than four hours. Apart from the president and her staff, the Sri Lankan team included Kadirgamar, Media Minister Mangala Samara-weera, the Foreign Secretary, and High Commissioner Moonesinghe.

Shortly after midnight, Minister Vollebaek and his team left for Katunayake, and departed on Singapore Airlines flight SQ 402 at 1:30 am. They were seen off by Lionel Fernando, I. Ansar and the Norwegian Ambassador.

Interestingly, the entire visit was given extensive publicity, due to the Norwegian government’s insistence that everything should be done in the open, to avoid any paranoia on the part of any party that secrets are being kept.

The Norwegian delegation included a Press Officer, and the Norwegians issued a statement to the media before leaving.

The key points that have now been confirmed are that the LTTE initially asked Norway to broker the peace talks, almost a year ago. This was passed on to the Sri Lankan government through low-level diplomatic means.

President Kumara-tunga then officially asked Norway to help. There followed months of negotiations at low level between the Norwegian Foreign Ministry and the LTTE, with parallel talks with the Sri Lankan government.

The Norwegians are extremely serious about the entire issue, and were making sure that both parties are serious as well.

The presidential election actually caused a delay in the process, since the Sri Lankan government and opposition had their hands full with trying to get elected, and the LTTE was hell-bent on keeping President Kumara-tunga out of power by staging massive attacks in the Wanni and the Elephant Pass area.

However, once the election ended, the process moved on.

Finally, the first public step, the visit by Minister Vollebaek, was taken.

The Norwegians have cautioned that the peace process will take many months, or years, and are making no promises. Vollebaek noted quite succinctly that it places great responsibility on the parties themselves... It will be difficult and will require courage and sacrifices ... and the necessary political will from the parties."

Interestingly, the meeting with the Opposition Leader was meant to canvass the UNP’s support for the peace process. The Norwegians are woll aware of the fractious nature of Sri Lankan politics, and are taking no chances that their work could be derailed by politics in Colombo.

It is quite clear now that the president is very serious about negotiating a solution to the ethnic conflict, especially since her government’s military campaign has failed miserably after nearly five years.

However, it is not clear how serious the LTTE is. Are they once again playing for time? Or do they actually want peace, for the first time in more than two decades?

All other parties are optimistic, including the Norwegians. But the LTTE’s past record of breaking ceasefires and walking away from peace talks, is not encouraging.

Even during last week, when all eyes should have been on Minister Vollebaek and his peacemaking, the LTTE continued to try to score points on the battlefield, staging attacks in the Wanni and shooting down an air force helicopter.

Can the Tigers change their stripes? Many senior officers in the armed forces, who have seen this process twice before, don’t think so.

But everyone, most of all those in the armed forces, are hoping that the Norwegians, who have few ties with Sri Lanka or the LTTE and are therefore a true neutral party, can work a miracle.

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