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Lady luck makes up for incompetence of security and intelligence!

By Our Defence Correspondent
Security forces personnel guarding the City of Colombo are still in a state of shock over last weekend’s attack.

They are also thanking their luck stars that the LTTE made a big mistake in selecting the target of the attack.

The arsenal of weapons that the Black Tiger suicide squad possessed at the time of the abortive ambush on State Drive, was more than sufficient for the LTTE to have successfully broken through the defences of almost any of the vital installations in Colombo.

When the elite Commando teams finally secured the Serpentine Flats at Borella, 14 hours after the attack began, they were shocked to find that the arsenal included a General Purpose Machine Gun (GPMG), two Multi-Purpose Machine Guns (MPMG), two Light Anti-Tank Weapons (LAW), and three 40 millimeter Grenade Launchers which are known as Tombas.

Left behind at the site of the ambush on State Drive were no less than three more LAWs.

There were also the usual AK-47 automatic assault rifles, which are Chinese-made weapons used by both the LTTE and the armed forces, as well as the police. And of course, hundreds of rounds of ammunition. There were also the six suicide jackets! Which were exploded by their wearers, one on State Drive, and the other five at Serpentine Flats. Also, during the fighting on the street at Rajagiriya, the Tigers fired two LAWs, and two Tombas, which panicked the public and caused much mayhem and confusion.

Quite apart from the arsenal of weapons, the fact that the LTTE managed to gather together a force of at least six Black Tigers and two other cadres, as well as support personnel estimated to number at least a dozen, is also alarming.

Had the Tigers chosen to attack some more vital building or installation in Colombo, they would have had far more impact on the war and the nation than what they achieved last weekend. Basically, the net result of the Rajagiriya battle was to kill six policemen and more than a dozen innocent civilians, and destroy a large number of civilian vehicles.

 

Alarm bells

Within hours of the incident ending, the report on it went to the Operations Commander, Colombo, with details of the weaponry that the Black Tiger squad had with them, and from his headquarters to other key operations rooms of the forces and police, and alarm bells began ringing.

Jittery officers in charge of the defence of key areas in and around Colombo began calling their respective senior officers and asking for instructions on how to deal with an attack by such a strong forcer, possessing such overwhelming fire-power.

Most armed forces and police sentry and checkpoint units are equipped with AK-47 assault rifles, hand thrown grenades, and possibly a single Tomba. This is enough for them to take on enemy units that would be armed with light automatic weapons and grenades. They are not in any way capable of handling an assault with GMPGs and MPMGs, which have a massive rate of fire-power.

In other words, these heavy duty machine guns shoot far more bullets per second than the guns carried by ordinary soldiers and policemen, and also shoot much more powerfully with the result that anyone being hit by such bullets have a slimmer chance of survival.

It is a similar situation with the explosive power of Tombas and Anti-Tank Weapons, which, as their names suggest, can destroy or at least badly damage even a battle tank, and would turn ordinary vehicles into deathtraps in about half a second.

The reason that these awesome weapons did not play a major part in last weekend’s battle, is that they are very cumbersome and heavy, and had not been placed in position when the ambush was discovered. MPMGs and GPMG7s are not guns that one can carry and shoot from the shoulder or hip. You have to place them on the ground, or on a wall, or some other solid object, and then shoot. It also takes a couple of people to carry them around, as well as the hundreds of rounds of ammunition they need.

Tombas and LAWs are not as difficult, being easily carried and fired by one person. This is why the Rajagiriya battle saw the use of Tombas and LAWs but not the heavy machine guns. When police initially rushed to the area, the Black Tigers killed six policemen with AK-47 fire.

The chief concern among top officers is that government troops will retreat first during future attacks, first trying to ascertain if the attackers have such heavy weapons, before mounting a proper defence. This would enable even lightly armed attackers to press home their attacks with far more effectiveness than before.

 

Vital installations

This is not to say that a force of Black Tigers with weapons like we saw last weekend, could overwhelm any installation in Colombo. Many of the most vital installations have defences such as machine guns and barricades that would more than suffice against such attacks. These include Temple Trees, and the headquarters of the army, navy and air force, as well as the Ministry of Defence.

However, the ordinary checkpoint on the street is no match for such a squad.

One heartening factor is evident from the desperation of the Black Tiger squad, to save not themselves, but their weapons.

This means that getting such an arsenal into Colombo, presumably from the Eastern Province, is not an easy matter even for the LTTE.

In fact, it is now quite clear that while three of the cadres distracted the police and Special Task Force units that rushed to the State Drive scene, the others were trying to get their weapons to safety. Hence their retreat down the railway track to Serpentine Road. It is believed that they were too tired to carry the weapons much further, which is why they took refuge in the flats, knowing that they would surely die there.

They did not, in the end, cause a massacre of civilians in the Serpentine Flats, despite the fact that the complex contained thousands of people who had no notion of what was happening. This is in contrast to a few hours earlier at Rajagiriya, where they intentionally attacked civilians and vehicles filled with office workers. It is now believed that this was a tactic to divert attention while the heavy weapons were carried away.

Had the Black Tiger squad completed setting up their weapons, and remained undiscovered until the convoys of government and opposition Members of Parliament, including every member of the Cabinet of Ministers, came waltzing down the road, the result would have been unimaginable. It would led to a disaster to the political hierarchy of the country not seen ever before.

It is quite clear that the LTTE had carefully studied the security precautions on State Drive, and found that the police cordon on the street was nothing but a flimsy excuse to impress the politicians. Every policeman stands facing the steet, waiting to salute the passing politicos (as if either the MPs or the policemen really have any respect for each other), rather than face the pavement, from where an attacker would come.

 

Standard Procedure

In the North and East, when a convoy is coming down a road, it is standard procedure, for a squad of troops to check out any buildings on the route. But in Colombo, this is never done, and the LTTE could station a killer squad in any house along the way.

It is only good fortune that smiled that day, and sent the owner of the land at Rajagiriya to check on his property, where he found the Black Tigers.

The abortive attack was in every way a failure of intelligence and security in Colombo. We quote from our column of February 13, 2000 ("Intelligence men caught napping!"):

Two months of continuous bomb attacks across the country have shown that Sri Lanka’s numerous intelligence services are incompetent even after 18 years of war."

On the bright side of things, the Black Tigers have had their ranks severely depleted by unsuccessful attacks since December 18, 1999, with at least 13 Black Tigers and Black Sea Tigers being killed.

They include the attack on President Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, the assassination of Major General Lucky Algama (the only one that was successful), the Flower Road bomb attack, the human torpedo attack in Trincomalee two weeks ago, and the Rajagiriya attack.

 

Sea Tigers to use Indian trawlers to attack naval boats

The latest Black Tiger debacle took place last Sunday, when naval gunboats successfully attacked a training run by three Black Sea Tigers in an Indian trawler off Delft Island in the north.

Two Dvora fast attack craft on patrol had noticed two Indian trawlers far inside Sri Lankan waters at 7.30 a.m., moving very suspiciously, and went to investigate. This is a common occurrence. Hundreds of Indian trawlers intentionally enter the rich fishing grounds of Sri Lanka every day, knowing that it is physically impossible for the Sri Lankan navy to stop them.

The LTTE, has sometimes terrorized Indian fishermen, killing many of them over the years. But the Tigers also often pay the more unscrupulous among Indian fishermen to carry supplies for them from South India, including fuel.

It is now clear that the Tigers are going to try a new tactic, using captured or bought Indian trawlers loaded with explosives and manned by Black Sea Tigers, to attack Sri Lankan naval targets.

Last Sunday, a three-member Black Sea Tiger squad was on a training run for just such a mission, their trawler crammed with explosives. They included Major Varathan Chandrakumar, Major Madan Sivathevanathan and Captain Divosh Supendran.

When the first Dvora came close and fired warning shots, the boat exploded in a huge fireball. It is not clear if the Black Sea Tigers exploded it themselves, or if a shot from the Dvora hit the craft and ignited the explosives.

All three Black Sea Tigers were killed, and their boat blown to smithereens.

The Dvora was badly damaged, but did not sink. It was later taken back to base. One sailor was killed, and two officers and a sailor were wounded.

The second Dvora’s crew, believing quite rightly that the second trawler was also part of the ambush, opened fire at it and sank it. Its occupants, who were Indians, were rescued by the Dvora, and taken into custody.

Meanwhile, more LTTE craft were launched from the shore, but turned back due to the arrival of naval reinforcements.

Tiger broadcasts later gave the names of the Black Sea Tigers, confirming that the LTTE had used the Indian trawlers as cover for the attack.

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