by Shamindra Ferdinando
Despite the deployment of additional forces to support the Jayasikuru offensive, the military top brass have admitted that it was not in a position to launch a wide scale assault to regain the Vavuniya-Kilinochchi road swiftly The Island learns. The LTTE has further strengthened their defences in the general area of Mankulam and south of Kilinochchi.

"We simply cannot complete the offensive in a hurry," a senior officer said adding that the return of over 10,000 deserters would not have an immediate impact. They have not rejoined any fighting formations yet.

Contrary to reports, claims and speculation, the military last week did not mount the so called final phase of the offensive. Since the April 20 battles in the general area of Mankulam resulted in heavy losses among both men and material.

Troops have not sought to make further advances. Instead they have carried out regular small group operations ahead of their defences.

"We are still engaged in small group operations while engaging identified enemy targets with artillery and air strikes," military sources said.

The clandestine Voice of Tigers [VOT] radio monitored in the north had said that the LTTE had resisted a two pronged army advance towards Mankulam in the early hours of Thursday. It also had said that they were able to beat back the army advance from positions held southwest and northeast of Mankulam.

However the military said that there had been no push into enemy territory. A senior spokesman denied LTTE claims that heavy losses were inflicted on troops on Thursday.

He said that artillery was fired at several enemy positions west of Mankulam at first light Thursday. Later terrorists engaged troops manning defences with mortars and small arms fire. More mortars were fired on Friday morning.

"We did not suffer losses both on Thursday and Friday," the spokesman said.

Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte last week visited forward areas to meet the Overall Operations Commander [OOC] Major General Sri Lal Weerasooriya and field commanders.

Officers said that there was no possibility in mounting frontal assaults on strong enemy defences." A multi-pronged frontal assault will result in massive losses," one officer said reminding of the December 4 battle last year west of the Vavuniya-Kilinochchi road where almost 200 special forces and commandos died.

Some believe that troops will be probably able to secure the road ahead of the forthcoming elections to Uva, Sabaragamuwa, North, West, North Central and Central Provincial Councils. Elections Department officials said that elections were likely in late August or September.

From Kayts to Jaya Sikuru for one more try at Mankulam

By our Defence Correspondent
In a furious attempt to capture the key town of Mankulam, the army last week moved thousands of soldiers out of the island of Kayts and sent them to the front of Operation Jaya Sikuru.

The movement of nearly two thousand fresh troops, comprising almost an entire brigade, was one of the last moves open to the army to boost the strength of Operation Jaya Sikuru, before it is forced to resort to conscription.

Before some bright spark accuses this column of giving away vital information to the LTTE, we must add here that army intelligence reported to headquarters on Friday that the LTTE has already got wind of the evacuation of Kyts and has warned that the Tigers are planning to infiltrate the island.

However, Kayts, the second largest of the islands off the Jaffna Peninsula, has not been left unguarded, since the government has handed over its defence to the navy, which has already moved troops from the base at the adjoining island Karaitivu, home of the northern naval command headquarters. More naval troops are being sent from other bases around the country to boost strength on Kayts.

Although Kayts is only a dozen miles from LTTE held territory, and is thus only a short boat ride away for Tiger infiltrators, it is not considered a vital at the moment, and the move by the army is entirely justified. Keeping thousands of troops to guard against a few infiltrators just didn't make sense, since the soldiers are badly needed elsewhere.

There is no possibility of the LTTE capturing Kayts, since it still has several hundred navy defenders, who would be more than a match for a few dozen Tigers coming by boat. The LTTE, itself short of cadres, just doesn't have enough people to think of making a serious attempt at wresting control of an island which is not as strategically important as it once was.

Kayts has been an army held island since September of 1991, when the late Lt. Gen. Denzil Kobbekaduwa led an amphibious landing there, as well as several other nearby islands. The Tigers, sensing the impending attack, withdrew a few days before from all the islands.

Kayts is most well known as the place where Kobbekaduwa himself met his death, while planning an assault on Jaffna which never took place.

The renewed urgency in Operation Jaya Sikuru comes after both President Chandrika Kumaratunga and Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte impressed upon the army top brass several weeks ago that they would like to see Mankulam captured before the upcoming Provincial Council elections.

The announcement of the date of the elections has been delayed by the President until Mankulam is taken.

However, the elections are due in July, unless the President uses her emergency powers to postpone them, something she is not very happy about doing.

The election, which will be for six of the country's nine provinces, Western, Central, North-Central, Northwestern, Uva and Sabaragamuwa, are seen as a key indicator of the popularity, or unpopularity of the People's Alliance coalition and the way it has governed since August of 1994, nearly four years. These are the last major elections before the next general election which is due in the year 2000, save for the lone election for the Southern Provincial Council in early 1999. The other two provinces, the North and East, are under direct government control and there are no elections scheduled.

The President would dearly love to go to the polls with the news that Mankulam is taken, and Operation Jaya Sikuru nearly completed.

However, the army's Overall Operations Commander for the Northeast, Major General Srilal Weerasuriya, who is heading Operation Jaya Sikuru, has made it very clear to the defence ministry and the government, that there can be no deadlines in this war. He has said very firmly that previous deadlines for Jaya Sikuru only resulted in field commanders being placed under undue pressure to perform, and rushing into battle when their units were not ready and understrength.

Weerasuriya, who is also the army's Chief-of-Staff, is likely to be appointed the army commander within the next few months, with Lt. General Rohan Daluwatte expected to step down at the end of his term.

Aware that the People's Alliance's popularity is waning, due to the inability to finish off the war, and the high cost of living, not to mention the numerous charges of corruption, the President is also delaying the start of conscription until after the provincial council elections. Conscription would see the Alliance's popularity plunge to an all-time low for certain, since it is not a measure which has bad popular support in any country. Parents just don't want to see their children going off to fight and die. There is no use asking what young men think of being drafted.

Until then, the army has begun a massive crackdown on deserters, and the move has met with some measure of success in the past ten days. Squads of soldiers could be seen scouring neighbourhoods over the weekend, when deserters would be at home like everyone else, especially in the Western Province, mainly the Colombo and Gampaha districts, where it is easier for deserters to get jobs in factories and small workshops without being discovered.

However, the army top brass has stressed to the government that this is just a temporary measure, and cannot in any way be expected to supply enough soldiers to win the war. Even if the army succeeds in completing Operation Jaya Sikuru without having to resort to conscription, there is no way that it can hold on to all the recaptured land in the Wanni, not to mention the Jaffna Peninsula and the Eastern Province, and also drive forward against the LTTE.

Although the nation is waiting with baited breath for details of how the conscription is to be carried out, each young person hoping that he won't be in the unfortunate age group, the fact is that the army has been told by the defence ministry to deliberately delay even planning the drafting, since word would leak out through the newspapers and even the opposition UNP, and the PA's popularity would dip.