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oo Treasury Deputy Secretary Lawrence Summers says that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), now with less than $10,000 million to respond to any new financial crisis, urgently needs approval from the U.S. Congress for additional credit. "Its lack of resources could well become a constraint to action in case further problems arise, and, by reducing confidence, its lack of resources make future problems more likely," Summers said. Summers made the remarks in an August 4 speech to a National Governors Association meeting in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. A copy of his prepared text was made available in Washington. "To say that the IMF has been indispensable is not to say we must be satisfied with the institution we have now," he said. "The IMF needs to be more transparent and accountable to the public, allow for increased external evaluation, and work at ways of making more information available to the markets." The Clinton administration has requested an appropriation of nearly $18,000 million in new credit for the IMF, but Republican opponents in the House of Representatives have blocked the bill so far. Summers also reviewed the current global economic situation, noting that the Asian economic crisis has not yet been fully contained and that serious related financial issues need to be addressed in Russia, China, Japan and South Africa. Following is the text of Summers' remarks: I would like to spend most of my time today discussing the global economic situation, the United States response to it, and the vital role of the IMF in that response. But let me begin with a few words about conditions here at home. The American economy today is the strongest it has been in a generation: 16 million new jobs in the past five and a half years, stable prices, real wages increasing at their fastest pace in 25 years, and lest we forget, the budget deficit is no more. At the start of the first Clinton Administration the deficit for 1998 was projected to be $357 billion. Today, as you know, we expect a significant surplus. These successes have come because our policies have been prudent, and in a deeper sense, because America is superbly placed to take advantage of the kinds of trends that Daniel Yergin has described. Emerging markets are paving the way for the world's first truly global economy. Countries where three billion people live have moved toward the market, with vast populations seeing a doubling, sometimes trebling of incomes in a single generation. And if you think about emerging markets, about Latin America, about Central and Eastern Europe, about Asia -- America is uniquely linked to all of these regions and uniquely placed to prosper from their emergence. Information technology and modern competitive finance are fast moving us toward a post-industrial age. And if you think about what this new economy means -- whether it is AIG in insurance, McDonald's in fast-food, Walmart in retailing, Microsoft in software, Harvard University in education -- the leading enterprises are American. And yet, as a wise former Secretary of State once said, "history knows no resting places and no plateaus." As strong as our economy is -- as well-equipped as we are to compete -- our capacity to continue this success in an ever-more interconnected world will depend in no small part on events beyond our shores. And looking around the world, there are today enormous reasons for concern. I. A Critical Time For The Global Economy The Thai, Indonesia, Korean and Malaysian economies are all now expected to shrink substantially this year -- by upwards of 12 percent in the case of Indonesia -- with unemployment and inflation rising to unprecedented levels. Japan, the world's second largest economy, has been mired in recession for seven years and faces banking problems several times larger than our own Savings and Loan crisis in the early 1980s. In South Africa, where the U.S. exports more than to all of the states of the former Soviet Union, we have seen the rand depreciate by over 20 percent in the last three months. And in Russia, continuing structural problems have been exacerbated by contagion effects from Asia and have raised serious questions about the future. Russia's trouble, in turn, has the potential to become Central Europe's -- and the world's. Make no mistake. Containing these problems is critically important to America's future. It is about safeguarding American jobs, American savings and American national security. Trade has accounted for one third of our growth in this expansion and is the prime engine of high-wage jobs. More than 30 percent of those exports -- and 40 percent of our agricultural exports -- go to Asia. Already, exports to the economies in crisis are down by nearly one third, year-on-year. Private forecasts are suggesting that the crisis could add one half, even one percentage point of GDP to the United States current account deficit this year. Consider the implications of a sustained crisis for California, where about half of last year's exports went to Asia. Or Colorado, where exports to Thailand alone grew nearly four-fold between 1993 and 1996. American markets have been remarkably strong in recent years, including through the last year, and American savings are ever more dependent on our markets. But history teaches us that the performance of our markets continues to become more closely linked to the performance of global markets because our companies' profitability depends increasingly on these markets and because ever more capital flows across international borders. The Cold War is over but the world is still a fragile place. In too many ways -- nationalist forces, economic frustration, incipient ethnic conflicts, a shortage of institutions knitting nations together -- Asia bears resemblance to Europe at certain points early in this century. Seen in that light, a strong response to the crisis that prevents it from festering is forward defense of America's core interests. I am convinced that few issues we confront will be as important to the way the 21st century begins as our management of these crises. Our goal is clear: to work to restore stability and growth in Asia and Russia and prevent further contagion in other markets. Let me now say a little about the means. II. An Effective Response First, a strong domestic response is the absolute prerequisite for restoring stability because any amount of financial support that goes into an economy will flow right back out if policies are unsound and governments are not credible. That means sound monetary and fiscal policies; that means policies to strengthen the financial system; and that means structural reforms to open the economy, raise transparency and let market forces operate. Second, in many ways, sovereign financial crises have elements of a self-fulfilling prophecy -- like bank runs, everyone expects failure or everyone expects everyone else to expect failure which leads to a rush to be the first one out and thus causes failure. Temporary, conditioned international financial support provides countries a bridge to overcome this self-fulfilling prophecy. Third, there must be strong policies to support growth in the major economies of the region because no country will emerge safely from crises in an environment of region-wide deflation and declining demand. -- The United States must continue to do its part in maintaining sound economic and financial policies that provide the basis for sustainable economic growth that we are experiencing today. -- The Chinese have recognized that their continued commitment to addressing their financial sector problems and to maintaining a stable currency will be critical to the stability of Asia. -- Japan, the largest Asian economy, has an even more crucial role to play. The new government has reaffirmed the importance of fiscal action to stimulate domestic demand and tackling decisively the problems in the financial sector. But as confidence has declined so too has the scope for further delay. The crisis is still very much an unfolding story, and very large challenges lie ahead. There is no question that there is enormous economic distress being felt in the countries worst affected. This is inevitable given the massive withdrawals of private capital that have occurred. But it is encouraging that in those countries that were first hit and where policy has been most determined there has been evidence of containment: In Korea and Thailand the run on the currency has stopped and production shows signs of stabilizing. The Korean won has risen more than 35 percent since January, retracing almost four-fifths of its decline, and import volumes have actually been rising in recent months. And in Latin America, a quick response to market pressure in Brazil last fall has helped to maintain stability in a region not so long ago considered highly vulnerable. The case of Mexico is instructive. In early 1995 Mexico was mired in crisis and a matter of days away from default. The economy shrank by 6 percent that year. But with strong policies and conditioned support from the United States and the IMF, it grew over 5 percent the year after and has sustained that pace ever since. Unemployment has fallen and investment and real wages are on the rise. To be sure, the implementation of the principles I have been speaking about involves questions of balance. National sovereignty should be respected, politics should be understood, and the provision of support should not engender a backlash against the providers. These criteria must be balanced against credible policies that will contain the crisis, reduce the risk of future crisis and have the potential to increase confidence. In Asia, the problems related to "crony capitalism" are at the heart of this crisis, and that is why structural reforms must be a major part of the IMF's solution. Economic growth -- not austerity -- is a crucial objective of support programs, but a resumption of market confidence is essential to restore growth, with this balance being particularly difficult to strike when banks are failing and currencies collapsing. It does bear emphasis that interest rates in Korea and Thailand are near pre-crisis levels and, in real terms, are well below pre-crisis levels. And in Thailand, the government has chosen not to make full use of the fiscal expansion provided for in the IMF program. A balance must be found between the imperative of maintaining confidence and avoiding bailouts of investors who should have known better. As Secretary Rubin has often said, he would not give one dime to help any creditor or investor, but the imperative to create confidence and to avoid disaster can in some circumstances compel actions that do benefit some creditors. To be sure, investors in non-Japan Asia have lost, by some estimates, as much as three quarters of a trillion dollars, in part because of the programs for resolution of private-sector debt entered into by Korea and Indonesia along with the IMF. The final area of balance is in the application of conditional support. In each crisis country, the international community's interest is to reinforce market confidence while national policy makers are motivated to act in an expeditious yet prudent manner. This is one reason why the IMF has, at U.S. behest, begun charging penalty interest rates on extraordinary loans. III. The Way Forward Japan's actions to fix its problems and to get its economy growing are crucial to the future of the world economy. The success of the Russian government in carrying forward on its reform program is of the utmost importance economically and politically. And, as the world's largest and strongest economy, we too have a critical role. Most important is keeping our economy strong, maintaining the strength of our example, and encouraging others to take necessary policy steps. What is also essential is providing the IMF with the support that it needs. The IMF has been critical to our containment of the Asian financial crisis to date. Let me be clear. Without the IMF there would have been no effective international response to events in Asia and we would, without question, be facing a situation far more serious and damaging to American interests than we face today. There would have been no conditioned reforms; there would have been larger devaluations and greater reductions in these countries' capacity to purchase our goods; and I am confident that there would now be much more pressure on the United States -- at events such as this one -- to respond unilaterally with taxpayer resources. The crises have taken their toll on the IMF's resources, and, as of today, the IMF has less than $10 billion that it could prudently use to respond to an intensification of the present crisis. Moreover, its lack of resources could well become a constraint to action in case further problems arise, and by reducing confidence, its lack of resources make future problems more likely. And the IMF's ability to get new resources awaits approval by the United States. Making good on our commitments has not cost American taxpayers one cent. Appropriations for the IMF are scored as a zero net cost to the budget. That is because the IMF acts like an international credit union. We and other countries are providing a line of credit, and when the IMF draws on our commitments, we receive a liquid, interest bearing offsetting claim on the IMF. To say that the IMF has been indispensable is not to say we must be satisfied with the institution we have now. The IMF needs to be more transparent and accountable to the public, allow for increased external evaluation, and work at ways of making more information available to the markets. With pressure from the United States, the IMF has come some distance in these areas but it is not past the finishing line. It seems clear to me that the way forward is for the U.S. to continue to shape the IMF's approach to economic policy around the world. But maybe the way forward is to look backward when, as in the 1930s, there was no effective international response to financial crises. The result was competitive devaluations, deflation, contraction, and widespread depression that laid the ground for what was as great a conflict as human history has seen. The speaker who follows me this morning has written eloquently of American diplomatic history as "oscillating between isolation and commitment." In the 1920s and early 1930s we oscillated in one direction -- with disastrous consequences for America and the world. With the leadership of Franklin D. Roosevelt and our post-war leaders we swung decisively -- and triumphantly -- in the other. When we consider our failure to pay our dues to the
United Nations and prospective loss of our seat in the
General Assembly; when we consider our failure to ensure
adequate funding for the IMF; the conclusion can only be
that we are fighting another swing of the pendulum into
perilous isolation. America's success and economic
strength is not now in question. What is today very much
in question is our ability to invest that success wisely.
Quite simply, not to invest in an effective IMF at such a
time would be like canceling your life insurance when you
have just gotten sick. It is simply not a risk we should
take. And with your help, it is not risk we will take.
Thank you. Privatisation of plantations - management and
ownership I presume that the people of this country are aware that it was the previous government that initially privatised the management of the public sector-owned plantations by constituting them into twenty two plantation companies. This most important happening in the plantation industry for a reason that cannot be deciphered was hurriedly enacted without any consideration for the importance and seriousness of the operation. Hence in consequence many a gaping loophole was left on the prescribed Terms of Reference for those who had no national love and a commitment to turn these estates into total commerce or profit-oriented management. Their desire was to extract whatever possible off these entities affording no consideration that these estates constitute the most valuable national asset of this country and belong to the people of Sri Lanka. I think the government, too did not realise that they were only the custodians of these lands and thus had a moral responsibility to ensure there viability and good management at all times which was and still is the governments obligation. It is conceded that at the time of privatisation of management in 1993, temporarily though, it may have been due to the poor international market conditions that all three crops tea, rubber and coconut were selling poorly, and the government coffers had to fuel millions to keep the estates going. This trend dramatically changed subsequent to privatisation and as at present the plantation companies are effectively minting money as the international demand for all three crops mentioned had increased beyond expectation. Hence, as I had earlier pointed out in an article written by me to the media, whilst productivity and production of all three crops remain virtually stagnant the profit factor has improved beyond belief. The reasons attributed there in which I repeat are due to the unpresidented sale price in the international arena. It appears that it is that excessive to the effect that if proper records and accounts are perused by government authorities in the Treasury and the Central Bank, as they should be, then what is available realistically should greatly offset the vast amount of money expended by government in the on-going unfortunate north-east war. Hence on this prevailing scenario where the present government has gone one step further on privatisation of management it is now in the final lap on the virtual privatisation of ownership of the 22 (twenty two) plantation companies. In effect, it is a reality that in numerous instances the new plantation companies are in effect "killing the goose that lays the golden egg." This would soon result in the total erosion and downfall of this plantation industry of Sri Lanka where all three crops have been planted over a hundred years ago. Probe I am sad to say that no one up to now has used this powerful weapon the Golden Share, and many wrongs and unprescribed fraudulant and detrimental transactions are effected with none bothering to correct them. Even bureaucrats, in most instances, show total disregard and callousness to these atrocious happenings to the natural wealth in agricultural land. It must be understood that the public sector JEDB (Janatha Estates Development Board) and SLSPC (Sri Lanka State Plantations Corporation) may have faulted and also may have run at great loss, due to extraneous reasons in market conditions. But still they were adequately social-oriented to ensure that the viability and the agricultural wellbeing of these plantations were always kept in an impeccable manner by good agricultural practices and unstinted application of fertilizer, replantings etc. Skilled staffers I am aware that certain companies in the recent past have already bought a consortium of estates by bidding the highest in the stock market but due obviously to some form of bungling somewhere have still not taken over the said company for management. Thereby obviously the company which were the previous owner will bleed the estates before handling over to the new owners by cutting down on agricultural inputs, uncontrolled arbitrary spending of finances, cessation of expensive operations like infilling of vacancies and even application of the all important fertilizer. I know of instances which actually seem to emanate from Ripleys Believe It or Not where certain executives have been paid in millions, approved by the Board of Directors for services rendered etc. This is because of lethargy and inadequate vigilance by those controlling the management of these plantations. If this trend continues and is not checked and corrected forthwith, the clearly prescribed terms of management laid down by the wise old European management companies of years gone by and tea will undergo much damage as is the present tea lands of Uganda before long. The rubber if not replanted at 3% of total hectarage annually will also leave behind thousands of hectares of tapped out rubber, which cannot be tapped for latex any further. I state with certainly that the tea small holder sector is doing a first class job of work and recently I saw in the media that they produce over 65% of the countrys tea crop even though they own an equivalent quentum of land as the reputed plantation estates. This is a serious warning and it is unfortunate that people more knowledgeable than me do not keep the public and the government apprised of this tragic scenario and unless we speak up how are the people and, more so, the government to know. It must be accepted that we simply cannot expect the President to know everything that is happening all over the country and it is our national obligation to keep her and the government informed of what is happening. It must be accepted that it is only if we are man enough to speak out and constructively criticise that they will know to put things right. Hence, I fervently hope that many others from varying disciplines keep the government informed and something will click of some point. My sole intention in writing this article is not to cast aspersions or damage the stature of any plantation company or individuals, private or public, but only as a national minded citizen of this country, who is genuinely interested in the plantation sector, to which I devoted my entire life culminating as a Chairman of Regional Boards and Director of the Central Board of the JEDB (Janatha Estate Development Board). I am interested in its progress to strengthen the rapidly weakening foundations of this great plantation industry of Sri Lanka, which was once considered to be amongst the best organised and managed. I consider that it should be obligatory for the plantation companies abide stricktly by the prescribed norms and terms of reference laid down by the government at the time of takeover and to look after them as their own as these lands, in effect, belong to all of us Sri Lankans. We should all remember that our political preferences should be at the time of elections and before and after let us all think and act as Sri Lankans. This is our country and unless and until we indoctrinate ourselves to think in like manner, we as a nation will fail. Science Yes, it was the culmination of the preparations by the present undergraduate students to celebrate 50 years of agricultural education by organizing an exhibition at the Faculty of Agriculture, University of Peradeniya, recently. The giant DNA molecule, over 7 feet tall was prepared so meticulously, each part, the sugar, the nitrogenous base, the phosphate, the hydrogen and covalent bonds were individually cut, fashioned and painted with so much precision, devotion and love. They would speak with their heads lowered, hands covered with dust and paint. Each nucleotide, the monomer of the polymeric molecule, was joined to its complementary partner by means of the hydrogen bonds and both fixed onto a central column. The base pairs were stacked with the bases on the inside and the phosphate bonds (the backbone) on the outside in a design identical to the natural molecule; the distances and angles were measured with much precision and the final base pair was placed in position by the talent of the group standing on the table. Awesome The giant DNA molecule was magnificent and continued to turn throughout the 5 days of the exhibition. The DNA molecule has been the object of research of modern-day scientists. Much information is now available to enable scientists to study this marvel of nature in more detail and to even manipulate it to an extent that has even put fear into our minds. It is now possible to cleave genes from one species and introduce them to another. Human genes are now being expressed in bacteria and in higher animals, bacterial genes in plants, plant genes in microorganisms. Insulin and many other pharmaceuticals are now produced in microorganisms on an industrial scale. In gene therapy, the proper gene is introduced to patients with genetic disorders in clinical trials. Human blood is being produced in animals to function as blood banks, human milk proteins are produced by sheep, and the gene responsible for the protein that prevents blood from coagulating (hirudin) found in the leech has now been cloned and can be used to dissolve blood clots in patients. In the area of floriculture, a blue rose will soon be in the market! Transgenic plants now carry foreign genes that enable them to withstand heavy doses of weedicides and some carry genes that produce toxins that kill pests. In the future fruits and salad vegetables will carry multiple vaccines. So when you take a bite of a mango you will be automatically vaccinated for several deadly diseases! These are a few of the many manipulations that scientists have carried out with the DNA molecule. Are they all for the benefit of mankind? Which of these are suitable for use in Sri Lanka to suit our culture and ways of life? We will have to find answers to these questions soon. With DNA fingerprints, it will be possible to identify those carrying hereditary diseases. Will this be used to discriminate applicants seeking employment or in arranged marriages? We all know about Dolly. Then, the production of a human clone will be as easy and will be done for sure. Why not? What about homesexual marriages(now legal in some countries)? Wouldn't they like to have a child, a clone? What about the death of a loved one? Wouldn't we like to have a clone of him or her? All these possibilities come to mind as one stares at the giant DNA molecule slowly turning on its axis. In contrast, there was much apprehension about the latest F1 hybrid tomato variety bred at the Faculty. There was no DNA manipulation here. A new breeding strategy based on the work done here, had been introduced to the world about a month ago through a publication in an international journal. Hybrids were produced through this strategic breeding method and planted in the field. They had to flower and fruit during the exhibition. There were many worried faces; heavy rains day after day, cloudy skies, little sunshine. But, just as the DNA molecule turned at the right moment, the flowers bloomed on the tomato plants and they bore fruit (though not ripe as yet) just in time for the exhibition. For many characters, the hybrids were already far superior to the parents used in the crosses and it took less than 1 year to produce and evaluate the hybrids. It was shown that it is possible to produce hybrid varieties of most crops within 1 year and pure varieties in about 3 years (it takes more than 6 years to breed and release a new rice variety!). The exhibits on display provided vast amounts of knowledge and some posed many interesting and puzzling questions. Man has developed science to enable him to evolve outside his body. He can 'fly' (at this very moment there are thousands in the sky), his eyes have 'evolved' to enable him to observe details of planets and stars and minute organism. He has used the development of science to travel to the moon, but more important than all, he has created machines and bombs to kill his own brothers and sisters at will, while his fellow brothers and sisters elsewhere are dying without food in their hundreds, at this very moment. What has science done about this? Live specimens All these wide variety of exhibits were created by the students with lots of dedication, sweat and love. They couldn't fail. If the motor did not turn the DNA molecule, and the weather prevented the hybrids from blooming, the devas would have done it! -- A tribute to the students...from a loving teacher. A reply to Gunaseela Vitanage "Love God with all your heart, and with all your soul and all your mind ... Love your neighbour as yourself.' ( -- Jesus Christ) St. Mathew Ch. 22 - Vs. (37-40) As stated in my first article all the great religions of the world have much in common and their moral teaching is for the good of man. Let persons of all faiths co-operate to resolve some of the important issues facing the land. Some of these as I see them are briefly set out below as needing urgent attention. a) Race and Language - b) Religion and Education - c) Bribery and Corruption - d) Suicide and Murder - e) Brain Drain - It is most important that ordinary people are encouraged to read the words of the founders of their religions. I have found reading the Bible, the best way to learn about Christian teachings while also listening to our preachers. Even the Catholic church has now stopped conducting their services in Latin, as in the past, and encourage their flock to read the Bible in their own languages. The actual teachings of the founders of the great religions need to be made readily available to people. Interpretations by men, however clever, can vary and as stated earlier, man-made divisions are present in all the great religions, not only in Christianity - caused by differing interpretation of the original teachings. It is best if religious services too wherever possible, be conducted in a language understood by the people. Then only can religion in my humble view become truly meaningful. In this context I would also suggest that the use of external loud speakers be eliminated as far as possible - as I am sure our religious founders would not have wanted their followers to disturb or harm others. It is known that noise affects health and persistent and protracted noise at high levels can be very harmful particularly to the sick and the infirm and can impair hearing. It can also be a serious nuisance to all in the neighbourhood. Let us all strive to "live and let live". One of the increasing problems is the world scene today is the growing religious fundamentalism, (at least in some parts of the world) - which needs to be recognised and addressed by the world community in the interest of peace and justice as there can be a 'multiplier effect'. In some countries like in Ireland there is serious internal conflict involving different sects of the same religion whereas in other countries the conflict is between different religions. Religions fundamentalism is often caused by zealots, who in their zeal however well intentioned - feel that their particular interpretation of a religion is infallible, and allow little freedom to others to practise and preach something different. This can result in growing intolerance often leading to armed conflict. Religious fundamentalism (like violence) begets fundamentalism. Persons of all faiths are susceptible to this and only a genuine spirit of tolerance which permits freedom of religious expression and interpretation, can help prevent conflict in the name of religion. Inter-faith dialogue among religious leaders both at a national and international level, too is desirable. Such dialogue at every level perhaps needs to recognize that while there are essential differences in beliefs and unique features that give each religion their special indentities that there is much in common particularly concerning ethical teachings. Let us be aware of our differences; but recognise and respect what we have in common in a spirit of goodwill. Martin Luther King the Civil Rights leader said: "I have a dream" dream of a united America with no racial discrimination, and he was assassinated by a fanatic - although his dream is moving forward. As a citizen of this country, I too have a dream. I dream about a visit through India by train when I was only a schoolboy in the 1950s crossing the Palk Strait from Talaimannar to Danushkody. I also dream about five memorable days spent in Jaffna attending the CCYM Conference (conducted in English) in Jaffna, also in the 50s. I have another unfulfilled dream too? (I was in India a couple of years ago for a medical purpose, and came across a well-bound road map of India. It was modestly period and I am sorry I did not buy it). I dream that during my lifetime in the not too distant future, that I will be able to drive to Talaimannar and once again cross the Palk Strait by ferry boat, and (buy a road map of India) and drive on to Madras, Bangalore, Bombay, Puna and New Delhi, (if I can afford it) to visit friends and see the sights. I will not forge |