Is the world in crisis?
John Keegan, military historian and this year's BBC Reith lecturer, asks if our good times are coming to an end

The world has been preparing for the second millennium of the Christian era in a spirit of optimism - and not without reason, for the ending of the Cold War did seem the turning of a corner. Not only did the superpowers, America and the Soviet Union, announce that they were ceasing to target each other with their nuclear weapons. The relaxation of nuclear confrontation was followed by a termination of face-to-face military confrontation across what had been the Iron Curtain and the collapse, on the Soviet Bloc side, of the ideological systems that had sustained it.

In less than a decade, the Soviet satellites acquired non-Marxist governments and the outer perimeter of the Soviet Union, formed of nationalities that had been subject to Russian imperial rule since the Tsars, fell away into independence. Russia itself renounced communism and joined the democratic and capitalist world. What had been gained by the colonial subjects of the European empires in the aftermath of the Second World War seemed to be on offer also to the subjects of the world's last multi-ethnic empire - not only freedom of government, but freedom also to launch out on to the sea of free enterprise, with all the promise of wealth that a successful voyage entailed.

Freedom had indeed gone hand-in-hand with the achievement of prosperity in many countries released from Western rule. Their number included Japan which, under MacArthur's military government, had been tutored in the rules of American industrial efficiency and had learnt the lesson so well that, in less than 30 years, it had become the second largest economy in the world. Its example inspired its Asian neighbours, not least China, to embrace the culture of the stock exchange, the international bond market and convertible currency.

To visionary observers, it seemed that something scholars call a ``moment of secular change'' had embraced the world. Widow weeds outworn were being shed, a great age was beginning anew. A Japanese-American scholar, Francis Fukuyama, actually proclaimed ``the end of history''. History, a process of tension and crisis, is painful. Fukuyama foresaw the world's entry into an era of ``win/win'' choices - utterly at variance with the cycle of competition, leading to victory or defeat, military or commercial, that had been the lot of nations for as long as mankind could remember.

It was a wonderful prospect and a fitting context for the transition to the next thousand years. Then, suddenly, almost over the course of this past weekend, history threatened to laugh back. Crisis and tension, history's raw material, had returned in force. America, the principal source of authority within the world community, was brought to the realisation that its ``most approved'' president of modern times might shortly suffer impeachment and be removed from office, with two years of his presidency to run and no reassuring successor in sight. Almost simultaneously, the Russian president dismissed his entire government, for the second time in five months, leaving the ex-superpower apparently rudderless.

Russia's ministers were removed because they had failed to navigate a smooth course from a command to a free economy. The index of their failure was a sharp decline in the international value of the rouble, an inevitable outcome of an internal situation that failed to deliver taxes to the central government or tempt Russia's new rich to commit their savings to industrial investment.

Russia's crisis follows hard on the heels of others in the Asian ``tiger'' economies, regarded only a year ago as offering a perhaps terminal challenge to America and Europe. Now it appears that their politicians and business leaders have fallen into the same trap as their Russian equivalents - overborrowing while mismanaging the tax system - with the same consequences to themselves, ejection from office or withdrawal of popular confidence in their competence to rule.

Just to heighten tensions, there has been a sudden tightening of the military screw, so dramatically loosened at the beginning of the decade. India and Pakistan have mutually revealed themselves to be nuclear powers, while international terrorism, apparently brought under control since the worst days of the Lebanese civil war, has again struck directly at the symbols of American power overseas. The clumsy American response - turning over rocks on an Afghan hillside - suggests a determination by a weakened president simply to do something, rather than do anything effective.

So is history beginning again, in one of its nastier forms? Are we about to enter, say, a repetition of the general crisis of the 1930s? Then, it will be remembered, a tide of incautious borrowing, to fuel speculation in an overvalued American share market, led to a crash that had worldwide consequences. The consequences were political and military, as well as economic. Brutal industrial disinvestment in labour costs resulted in mass unemployment that, in Germany, ushered in the Nazi regime. In Britain, then still the world's policeman, it frightened the government into neglecting defence investment, with the result that it could not carry out its policing role. In America, it defeated the efforts of its most imaginative modern president to generate recovery, heightening the country's isolationist mood until world crisis became world disaster.

World disaster today? I don't think so. The omens simply aren't there. What is different about the world of the 1990s from the world of the 1930s is the absence of aggressive ideology. There is a breed of strategic analyst who warns that what communism and nazism were yesterday, Islamic fundamentalism or Marxist China will be tomorrow. Rubbish. Germany under Hitler was a dynamic industrial power. The Soviet Union under Stalin, despite its appalling inefficiencies, was an imperial state with a terrifyingly efficient military sector. None of those qualities attaches to the states or groupings with which strategic doomsayers currently seek to frighten us.

Islamic terrorists are terrorists, nothing more. Even if they were able to acquire control of a sovereign state - and Saddam may be seen as as a terrorist who has done just that - their power to do harm would remain, as his is, pathetically limited. No existing Muslim state, whatever its government, is a potential threat to world peace. They are all too weak. Strong states that remain gripped by a theoretically aggressive ideology - and China is the only one - have silently discarded their ideological baggage. North Korea has, of course, not. Any strategic analyst, however, who argues that North Korea threatens world peace is as believable as a financial adviser who counsels putting life savings into Russian stocks.

I am betting on a smooth transition to the third millennium. The collapse of the rouble won't hurt the dollar, let alone destroy Russia, which has survived every horror known to man, from Genghis Khan to Adolf Hitler.

Indian and Pakistani nuclear weapons cancel each other out. Beijing prefers capital accumulation to Das Kapital. Islamic terrorism is on a level with Irish republican atrocity - contemptible but futile. Finally, though it may be that President Clinton is on a collision course with impeachment, the magnificently flexible American political system will shrug that off, and American common sense will endorse his successor as if he had never been.

His last public act, when he visits Belfast next month, may be to make Sinn Fein/IRA begin surrendering its weapons. A foolish but essentially likeable man, he could retire honourably on that achievement and look forward to the same rehabilitation that Nixon enjoyed.

-'TheDaily Telegraph
(The author is Defence
Editor of The Daily Telegraph)


Sri Lanka's ethnic crisis and national security
by Rohan Gunaratna

The LTTE operations in the southern theater has been largely focused on Colombo, the capital. As a diversionary tactic in warfare, the LTTE has been highly effective. After stealthily shifting the theater of terror into the seat of the country's administration, LTTE elimination of political and military leaders, adversely affected the morale of the security forces. Some of the classic operations, providing insight to LTTE operational patterns, are discussed.

*On April 21, 1987, at 4.50 p.m., a bomb built into a Ford Escort car exploded in the vicinity of the People's Bank building and the Central Bus Stand, Pettah, Colombo, killing 113 persons and injuring 298. A timing device activated the explosion. The vehicle was provided for the operation by Selvamuttu Mahendran of Batticaloa and the explosives were fitted into the vehicle by Kanagasingham Muralidaran alias Muttukumar alias Muttusamy of the LTTE.

* ON November 9, 1987, at 5.35 p.m., a bomb built into a Peugeot 504 car exploded near the side entrance to Zahira College, Maradana, Colombo, killing 23 and injuring 106. A timing device activated the explosion. The car was purchased from Colombo by Selladorai Rajendran Indran. While LTTE cadres Sachithanandan of Araipattai, Batticaloa, could not be arrested, Navaratnam Manohari Watson was apprehended in Ampara. Her accomplice Chandran committed suicide. Manohari, sentenced to seven years in prison, was released during the peace talks on October 30, 1989. President Premadasa, committed to drawing the LTTE into a negotiated settlement, pardoned her at the request of the LTTE leader Prabhakaran.

* On July 13, 1989, three LTTE gunmen Aloysious Leon, Ragalingam Aravindan alias Vignan and Vichu visited the residence of the TULF leadership in Bullars Lane, Colombo. When the bodyguards wanted to frisk the visitors, V. Yogeswaran said that they were known to him and instructed that they be ushered into the living room. They carried two pistols and a .38 revolver using special heavily charged ammunition. While one remained talking with the guards the other two engaged the parliamentarians in a dialogue. During a discussion, the suspicious guards searched the visitor and discovered that he had a concealed weapon. As the guard moved into the house to alert the parliamentarians of the impending danger, the two cadres in the conversation opened fire killing A. Amirthalingam instantly. The guards responded - in the cross fire between the bodyguards and the LTTE hit team, V. Yogeswaran was killed and M. Sivasithamparam sustained injuries.

The LTTE had secured a detailed map of the house and visited the home at least once. Yogeswaran, when MP for Jaffna, had helped one of the assassins to secure employment at the Point Pedro branch of a state-owned bank. The LTTE often used such tactics for effective and deep infiltration. During the assassination, the LTTE and the Premadasa Administration were engaged in talks. Vichu had travelled to Colombo in the air force helicopter, with the rest of the LTTE delegation. Inadvertently, the then Deputy Leader of the LTTE Gopalasamy Mahendrarajah alias Ajith Mahattaya acknowledged that the LTTE had assassinated the 'traitor Amirthalingam.'

* On May 7, 1990, LTTE gunmen assassinated another TULF parliamentarian Sam Thambimuttu and his wife at the entrance to the Canadian High Commission, Colombo. The gunmen, both Batticaloa cadres Sinnathamby Somanathan alias Neelan alias Kottan and Lakshman, escaped on two motorcycles. The LTTE had secured intelligence on the movement of the Thambimuttu couple by cultivating a domestic servant. The allegation the LTTE made during that period was that the TULF leaders had flirted with the Indian government and had betrayed the Tamil struggle for independence.

* On March 2, 1991, at 8.25 a.m., an LTTE suicide bomber Prem, detonated his explosive-laden white Toyota Hi-ace van killing the Minister of State for Defense Ranjan Wijeratne. The outspoken Wijeratne, who had publicly vowed to annihilate the LTTE, was the prime target of the LTTE. Prem, the one time driver of a former LTTE Jaffna political leader Stanley Dominic, drove his vehicle abreast of the minister's vehicle before activating the explosive device. The explosion wrecked the bullet proof Mercedes Benz killing him instantly. A total of 19 persons, including the minister's bodyguard, driver, and five STF personnel, perished. Some 79 were injured and several buildings in the vicinity were damaged. Although, the minister's vehicle was protected by back up vehicles armed with elite troops, the minister followed almost the same routine every day.

Although the explosion nearly vaporized the body of the bomber, the identity of Prem was established. A video clip of Prem driving Stanley Dominic in an LTTE Pajero into the military complex at Palaly during the LTTE-Premadasa Administration peace talks assisted in confirming his identity. The explosive device was turned out by 'Ravi Kumar alias Ravi alias Ravi Shankar alias Charles, an LTTE explosives expert.

* On June 21, 1991, at 9.55 a.m. an Elf 350 lorry destroyed the Headquarters of the Joint Operations Command (JOC), the nerve center of the Sri Lankan security force. The LTTE had planned to destroy the JOC when the service chiefs were in session, but on that day there was no conference. Under the direction of Nadaraja Varatharajah alias Muthukumaraswamy Sridharan alias Varathan, two LTTE cadres Panchalingam Surendran alias Suresh alias Saheer and Thavagapal Thirumahan alias Chandran were tasked to drive in a vehicle laden with explosives into the JOC compound. As Varadan failed to arrange for a pass for the vehicle to enter the compound, he instructed Surendran to park the vehicle near the entrance to the JOC, arm the explosive device and withdraw. When Surendran realized that the circuit had no timer and the vehicle would explode instantly killing the driver, he backed out. Thereafter Varadan used Surendran's backup Chandran, who was killed in the explosion. After the explosion, Varadan did not travel to the north fearing that the LTTE leader would reprimand him for not conducting the operation according to the designated plan. Therefore, he withdrew to Kotmale, where he committed suicide by consuming Potassium Cyanide when a police team closed in on him. Eleven service personnel and ten civilians died and 114 were injured in the blast. The explosion also damaged about 200 houses, 56 motor vehicles and a number of push cycles.

The LTTE gradually perfected the art of striking secure security, political, and economic targests in Colombo. Within two months of the Wijeratna assassination the LTTE assassinated Rajiv Gandhi, but this time used a suicide body suit. Thereafter, the LTTE perfected their art of long range operations to strike human targets. Similarly, after the JOC bombing the LTTE developed their expertise in bombing buildings. The Sri Lankan security agencies were developing their counter intelligence capability reactively to district preparations by the LTTE to conduct operations in Colombo.

* On November 16, 1992, an LTTE suicide bomber Subaramanium Loja Mohan alias Mohan, riding motorcycle No. 126-5062 crashed onto the official vehicle of the Navy Chief Clancy Fernando. The vehicle was traveling slowly towards Navy headquarters. Admiral Fernando, his flag lieutenant Sandun Gunasekera, and the driver were killed. Admiral Fernando, escorted by a navy guard, followed almost the same routine every day. For over a month, an LTTE team had mounted surveillance on Admiral Fernando's movements. Admiral Fernando, who was responsible for several naval initiatives to dent LTTE's domination of the Kilali lagoon, separating the peninsula from the mainland, was a prime target of the LTTE. His death not only demoralized the navy but also impeded plans to develop a brown-water navy to fight the LTTE Sea Tigers.

Following the assassination of the Navy Chief, the police and the army supported by the intelligence agencies began to conduct operations to identify LTTE operatives in the city. Mohan was a member of a nine member LTTE hit team operating in Colombo under the directive of Kanagaratnam Sivakumaran alias Kannan. When a police team moved in on Kannan on November 24, 1992, he committed suicide by exploding a grenade. Kannan had taken precautions to evade suspicion by establishing residence in a plush area in the city. The security forces arrested another team member who provided information that revealed future LTTE targets in the city.

* On March 23, 1993, a LTTE cadre Kandiah Ragunathan, operating under the alias of Appiah Balakrishnan, opened fire killing Lalith Athulathmudali, the former Minister of National Security and the leader of the Democratic United National party. Athulathmudali was addressing an election meeting in Kirulapona when the assassin approached him with 9 mm CZ pistol, a favourite weapon of the LTTE. After he opened fire, Athulathmudali's bodyguard returned fire wounding the assassin. Exploiting the pandemonium that followed, the assassin escaped. Due to extensive bleeding, Kandiah could not proceed to his safe house. Having managed to walk down the nearby Mugalan road, he rested under the cover of darkness. Due to extensive bleeding and pain, he consumed a phial of Potassium Cyanide and committed suicide.

The then opposition tried to exploit the animosity between President Ranasinghe Premadasa and Lalith Athulathmudali by accusing the President of ordering the assassination. Subsequent investigations produced substantial evidence to indicate that the LTTe had masterminded the assassination of Athulathmudali, a leader who was bent on destroying the LTTE. To create dissension within the mainstream parties, the LTTE issued a statement denying its role but admitted that Athulathmudali was an enemy of the Tamil people.

On May 1, 1993, the LTTE suicide bomber Kulaweerasingham Verrakumar alias Babu assassinated President Ranasinghe Premadasa on his way to address the May day meeting. As Babu approached the president and his entrourage on a push cycle at 10.45 a.m., bodyguards attempted to prevent him from reaching the president. Babu activated the suicide body suit worn beneath his clothes, killing the president and 23 others. Premadasa's body was perforated by hundreds of small steel balls. Babu, was originally dispatched by LTTE leader Velupillai Prabhakaran, to collect intelligence on the intentions of Premadasa during the peace talks. During that period, Premadasa's inner thinking that he shared with his staff was communicated to the LTTE leader by Babu. Babu defied the regular security screening conducted by the National Intelligence Bureau at the recommendation of the Presidential Security Division (PSD) by winning over the confidence of the powerful presidential aides. Babu even flew in the presidential chaser helicopter and spent time in the presidential bungalows throughout Sri Lanka. Through his friendship with the presidential aides, Babu had effectively penetrated the president's inner circle. Even the 600 strong PSD failed to protect the president from Babu, who had systematically and effectively won the trust and the confidence of the presidential aides. Deception was integral in LTTE war strategy. Premadasa was among the many who had failed to understand the LTTE psyche.

Prabhakaran, who was in the peninsula, ordered the public announcement of his opponent's death at the LTTE organized May Day rally in Jaffna. A cadre walked on to the platform announced that 'President Premadasa of Sri Lanka was killed by a suicide bomber this morning.' The announcement shocked the crowd. A momentary deafening silence was broken by cheering LTTE supporters. In keeping with the LTTE strict code of not acknowledging civilian killings, the LTTE denied its responsibility in the killing of a ruling world leader.

* On the night of April 8, 1994, there were four explosions. The first meant for the Mount Lavinia hotel exploded prematurely killing Alphones Anthony Aruldas, a member of the LTTE in Canada who had joined the LTTE in Sri Lanka. His accomplice, Madimaran Mahendran, who was injured was taken into custody. The other explosions were at Hotel Sapphire, Taj Samudra and Marriot. The next morning there was another explosion in the National Zoological Gardens at Dehiwela. The police recovered another explosive device from the boarding place of Aruldas. A tribute to Aruldas by another LTTE activist in Canada was published in the Canadian press.

* On October 24, 1994, an LTTE female suicide bomber assassinated Gamini Dissanayake, the presidential candidate of the United National Party, while he was addressing an election meeting in Grandpass, Colombo. As Dissanayake, who was planning to leave the platform at 1.15 a.m., stood up and greeted the audience good morning, the bomber who was seated on the third row stood up, and while biting a Potassium Cyanide phial detonated herself. The bombers head blew off sky wards and landed on a concrete roof of a nearby building and her scalp was entangled in a power line just below the roof. Among 54 civilians killed and 72 injured were prominent members of the ruling party and other political leaders. Their bodies were perforated by two different types of steel balls from the suicide jacket worn by the assassin. Based on hard intelligence, Dissanayake was repeatedly warned of an impending threat to his life but did not heed the warnings.

The assassination was carried out during the peace talks conducted by the LTTE and Chandrika Kumaratunge, the newly appointed prime minister.

The LTTE denied its role in the assassination. To win the favour of the new president, a few public officials tried to exonerate the LTTE The LTTE feared Dissanayake because he called for the implementation of the Indo-Lanka Accord. He also called for the return of the Indian Peace Keeping Force, under which the LTTE had suffered badly.


University reforms towards meeting national needs
By Professor R.P. Gunawardane
Dean, Faculty of Science Univeasity of Perdeniya

Continued from yesterday

The future of higher education seems to be more inclined towards employing distant learning methods with the extensive use of electronic media and information technology.

There is at present a growing market all over the world for ''distance learning'' where courses are conducted via e-mail, T.V. Video conferencing etc. Further extension of this approach is the televersity-a kind of open university for the Microsoft age, which is emerging in some developed countries, arimed at a wider constituency.

For instance, one of the most prestigious seats of learning in the world, the Oxford University is planning to offer degree courses over the Internet. Initially, Oxford University will be offering on-line courses for postgraduates in Medicine, Computer Science and Soft Ware Engineering. Despite the opposition from many traditional universities, Internet run courses are expected to commence in many institutions all over the world at the dawn of the new millennium. Sri Lanka also should consider seriously to use this methodology to a maximum in order to open up tertiary education to a wider section of the population.

The main disadvantage of on-line higher education is the lack of direct student-staff contact and the enjoyable social life the students are expected to have in the campus.

On the other hand, the advantages of a 'televersity' are enormous. Certain courses in Humanities, Social Sciences, Law, Management etc. may be conducted entirely using this system. Perhaps even traditional universities could make use of this system in order to reduce the course duration in the campus and also to increase the intake substantially.

Non-state sector participation
Since the state alone is unable to bear the total cost of the required expansion of university education, it should be opened up to non-state sector organizations with adequate control and a monitoring scheme by the UGC. Although this has already taken place to a certain extent, there is no effective control or a monitoring scheme in operation at present.

An independent body for accreditation and quality assurance of degree programmes should be established under the UGC. This body could formulate and implement guidelines with regard to granting of permission and maintaining quality of the degree programmes offered by the non-state sector. In particular professional organizations should be encouraged to organize and conduct courses and training programmes of high quality.

It is an accepted fact that healthy competition between state and non-state sectors would raise the quality of education with the opening up of more opportunities for tertiary education. It is expected that pressure for admission to state universities would also be eased with the availability of recognized degree programmes in he non-state sector.

The priority fields may be remarked for granting permission to these institutions depending on the demand and the needs of the country. Additional incentives should be given for the establishment of technological Universities. Simultaneously a scholarship scheme should be initiated for students who need financial assistance to enrol in these institutions.

Research and Service
Research and service to the community are the other major functions of a university. Thus, it is accepted that research activity should form one of the primary duties and responsibilities of the University staff. The Universities are therefore, expected to provide the necessary infrastructure and resources to enable the staff to undertake relevant research activities. The infrastructure and resources presently available for research are rather inadequate. It is absolutely necessary that more funding and resources be made available for research in the university system. Research should be coupled with postgraduate training and, for this purpose more link and collaborative programmes should be established, particularly in subject areas where sufficient expertise is not available locally.

University'Research Institute'Industry'Professional Organizations'links and cooperation should be promoted to build-up multidisciplinary research groups particularly in subject areas of national importance.

In addition, the universities should explore the possibility of linking with centres of excellence abroad, especially for postgraduate training. Postgraduate Institutes of the University system should provide the leadership in this direction by promoting and developing multidisciplinary research projects and postgraduate programmes in association with the Centres of Excellence.

The Universities also should make their resources available for community service. It would be in the best interest of the country if the Universities could move away from the 'Ivory Tower' mentality and offer services to the country at large. By extending the facilities and expertise to provide community services the recognition of the universities among the general public could be considerably enhanced.

Furthermore, the universities could offer consultancy services and extension/outreach activities using the pool of expertise available in the universities. If the required expertise and the facilities are available, this may be further extended to generate additional income by running a separate Business Office or by floating a limited liability company to carry out consultancy, business and income generating activities.

Other Priorities
Administrative reforms, career guidance and staff development are the other areas which need immediate attention. Decentralization of administration to faculties, departments of units will streamline the administration system and increase the efficiency of the management.

The universities should consider employing students on part-time basis in laboratories, libraries, halls of residence etc. and minimise the use of permanent non-academic employees. It is necessary that Career Guidance Units should conduct regular programmes to guide the students with regard to employment prospects and other opportunities available at postgraduate level.

Each University should establish a separate Staff development Fund to incur expenditure on (i) regular workshops in Teaching Methodology, Research Methodology, Scientific Writing, Higher Education Management etc. for university staff. (ii) partial support for Probationary staff to obtain postgraduate qualifications abroad, and (iii) travel grants to attend conferences and short training programmes for senior staff. Universities may set apart about 1% of their recurrent vote annually to this Fund and may also adopt various innovative approaches to enhance this Fund.

Reforms are considered necessary for our university system to be consistent with the global trends of university education. In order to have a maximum impact of the reforms it is absolutely necessary to give utmost priority, and expedite the implementation of reforms in curricula, structure of degree programmes and teaching methodology in the universities.

It is the duty of the university community to cooperate with the authorities in the implementation of the proposed package of reforms. There may be certain shortcomings in this package, but these may be corrected during the implementation process. It is hoped that the reformed university system in Sri Lanka will be able to contribute effectively towardsfilling the manpower needs of the nation in the new millennium.


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