By Our Defence Correspondent
What is going on in the north that the government doesn't want the people to know? And how long is it going to hoodwink the people by saying that elections are just around the corner?

On Monday, the Daily News carried as its lead story, an interview with Deputy Defence Minister Anuruddha Ratwatte, in which he gave vague promises on when the islandwide state of emergency would be lifted, and provincial council elections held.

``Maybe in a month's time, maybe two. Elections will come sooner than people think,' Ratwatte's promises are as vague as they are endless.

Operation Jaya Sikuru continues...

Ratwatte has said that while Operation Jaya Sikuru is going on, there aren't enough police and soldiers in the rest of the country to guarantee security for the elections. This is the government’s excuse for postponing elections. To postpone elections, the president needed to proclaim a nationwide state of emergency.

Meanwhile, the censorship of all articles relating to the armed forces, continues to hide what is going on in the north from the people. The censorship is now more than three months old, and doesn't look like it's going to be lifted anytime soon.

The government clearly believes that the combination of the state of emergency and the censorship will be enough to fool enough of the people into believing that elections really cannot be held now. Meanwhile, the vague promises keep flowing, intended to satisfy the voters for a little while longer.

How long can this last?

Every one of the government's arguments and actions we have mentioned, are false.

Let's take the censorship for starters. According to all reports of the Defence Ministry, the LTTE and the NGOs operating in the north, and also people travelling from the north, there has been no major battle since early June.

In fact, the defence ministry's daily propaganda bulletins speak of fighting going on in the same area where battles were being fought in January! 'Troops operating in general area Mankulam' has become imprinted in the minds of the public, since it is being parroted by newspapers, radio and television for so long.

Clearly, according to what the Defence Ministry says every day, the army has not moved forward at all since January. If they have, then they haven't gone more than a few hundred meters, or a couple of kilometers. Unless of course, the defence ministry is deliberately lying about the location, which it doesn't seem to be doing, since the Tigers are refering to the same area in their propaganda.

At the same time, the Tigers haven’t launched any mass attacks on the forces either. Neither have they claimed to have done so.

Thus, it is quite clear that both sides are literally exhausted of men and women, and haven't been able to move much.

This is what the government is trying so hard to hide from the public, through the censorship.

A glance at a map shows that Jaya Sikuru has captured less than 50 of the 70 kilometers from Thandikulam to Elephant Pass, or roughly two thirds, according to what the defence ministry says.

Yet, Ratwatte and many other members of the Cabinet keep talking of 'one big thrust' which will clear the rest of the road, split the Tigers into two areas, open an 'MSR' (main supply route) to Jaffna, and release troops for the elections.

And all this, in a month or two, according to what Ratwatte told the Daily News!

The government, in trying to fool the people, is quite obviously fooling only itself.

Sri Lankans know how to read maps. Those who don't, can ask those who do to explain to them where Mankulum is. With nothing but Mankulam being the most mentioned town this year, when it comes to the warfront, everyone knows that nothing much seems to be happening, since the troops are evidently stuck there since January.

Thus, if Ratwatte believes that the people believe him when he says that it will take only a month or two to clear the rest of the road, he is fooling himself.

Maybe he is talking about some other strategy. But definitely, no-one believes that the strategy that has been followed for one year and four months now, can succeed in clearing the road in two months.

At the same time, almost no-one believes that the elections were postponed for security reasons. The United National Party, as well as all the other opposition parties, and even several of the PA's own allies, have made sure that the people understand this, with politician after politician speaking on it at public meetings.

Phrases like 'crisis of credibility,' 'constitutional coup,' 'dictatorship,' etc, are being thrown at the government, with ease. Only the most diehard of PA supporters are voicing opp-osition to this.

Yet the government has not batted an eye lid in the face of all this criticism. No elections, have censorship have emergency. That's the stand.

So, what is the government's plan?

The first most obvious option is to continue like this until Jaya Sikuru succeeds. But no-one knows how long that will be despite Ratwatte's soothsaying.

Other cabinet ministers have said that they don't expect Jaya Sikuru to take more than a few months. But their vagueness on the actual time frame clearly shows that they have not given Ratwatte any sort of deadline.

Just suppose that the operation drags into the middle of next year. Then what? Are we still going to be living under emergency, censorship and no elections?

On the other hand, if Jaya Sikuru fails, or goes on into next year there is no way that the PA will win the elections. Voters who are already angry at the subversion of their right to democracy, will defintitely throw the PA out of the Provincial Councils, if elections are held without winning in the north.

From the point of view of the PA, it has backed itself into a disastrous position, politically, from which there is no going back without losing face and probably losing elections.

The talk of holding Presidential Elections early or even a general election is all hogwash. A ruling party which is afraid to lose a provincial council election is not going to risk it all in a nationwide election.

So what does this mean to the war?

Ratwatte is now assured of the PA's total commitment to the censorship and state of emergency, which suit him best given the dismal record of Jaya Sikuru. He knows that the PA cannot risk election until he wins in Jaya Sikuru.

Until then, the country will have no choice but to read his promises in the front page of the Daily News, Unless of course you choose to turn the page, in which case you can read the promises of some lesser minister in an inside page.

But then, there is always the sports page. At least that has good news, and no promises. For the moment.