by Kusal Perera
All's set for the presidential elections it seems. Madame President has directed her cabinet of ministers to get their act together to face an election towards February going by reports, both in the state and private media. The Elections Commissioner, it was reported, had assured he is ready even for a presidential election at short notice.

Reading between the lines, the intimation is that the P.A. is counting on a second lease of life of governance on the charisma of their smiling lady leader. The logic of their argument is that the ''dull witted'' Ranil would stand no chance with Chandika's smile and her photogenic appearances on stage.

Even if she losses 10 per cent of the vote she polled against Mrs. Srima Dissanayake, she would still have a comfortable 52 per cent and be home and dry. The parliamentary elections could then follow to return the PA this time with a stable government.

All's well for the PA, if, and that's a big IF, everything works out to plan and if the opposition goes into limbo. But would it happen that way? Will the people vote for a smile against a dull face?

This faux pas has always been the slip with the SLFP leadership. As the dominant party within the PA it reflects on the PA leadership. Almost always, the SLFP leadership counts only on petty things that they feel comfortable with and always prefers to discard whatever they are not happy with. Yet, the ground reality does not account for only those that the SLFP leadership is happy and contented with. And that accounts for more political factors than smiles and dull wits, or, to put it in clear political terms, elections have more depth than the images of political leaders.

Images
If, as the SLFP leadership is happy to think, images of political leaders could woo the voters how did J. R. Jayewardene sweep the polls in 1977? Let's not forget that Mrs. B. in 1975 was crowned queen of the NAM, held in Colombo itself. She was the most outstanding leader in the decade of the seventies not only here in Sri Lanka, but in the world as well. She was ''mother'' figure in politics, respected, revered and trusted. And like today leaders, she did not have slandering anecdotes making popular rounds, a sure sign that she was a respected and accepted leader.

Who was JRJ compared to Mrs. Bandaranaike? JRJ was the one who took the ''gentleman-leader'' Dudley Senanayake to the courts twice, challenging Dudley's right to the leadership of the UNP. He was ''Yankee Dickey'', the pet of he Americans and was called the ''old fox'' in politics. He was feared in politics, not only by the opposition but also by the traditional and conservative UNP vote base. Added to all this, JRJ did not even have the advantage of accomplished politicians campaigning for him. He had to run along with then amateurs and first-timers like Lalith Athulathmudali, Gamini Dissanayake, W. J. M. Loku Bandara, among many others.

If images decided the poll in 1977, JRJ would never have stood a chance. And, as images have little to do with political issues, JRJ outscored and outnumbered the SLFP and its ''mother'' figure, to have himself installed in power, with the biggest majority to date, in our history of parliamentary politics. Thus it is best, the SLFP leadership leaves this factor of leadership images and start counting on real life issues with political relevance.

If, as assumed the presidential polls is on the cards to begin with, the PA would have to answer why they are now continuing with the executive presidency they were opposed to right along and what they promised in writing at the 1994 Presidential Elections to do away with. The UNP would no doubt raise this as the major ''promise'' of the PA and say that the people had been cheated. The JVP who bagged that promise in writing from the PA presidential candidate, would not be a silent spectator either. What possibly could the PA say?

Answers
One of the possible answers as blurted out by one of the president's confidantes, is that this promise to be kept, needs a two thirds majority in parliament. As the people did not provide that majority it is now a promise that the people do not want honoured. If there is no opposition to instantly counter such fallacies as orchestrated in Rupa-vahini interviews, the gullible may swallow it. But not so in present day election campaigns with hi-tech aids.

This promise was made after the PA government was assembled in parliament. This promise was made at the Presidential polls, knowing very well that the PA did not have a two thirds majority. It was argued by no less a person than Prof. G. L. Peiris, that a two thirds majority in parliament is not a necessary criteria to have this clause amended. And the PA presidential nominee, the incumbent President was preferred in office to have it removed, with a historical vote of over 62 per cent.

To crown it all, the PA campaigners said they would not need as much as 12 months to do away with the executive presidency which the PA now wants for a second time, after four defaulting years in office. Thus it would be tough going for the PA, minus the LSSP and the DUNLF as it seems now, to justify their 'reversed stand on the executive presidency'' leave alone canvassing votes for that.

Another juggle the SLFP leadership would try is the linking of the executive presidency with their proposal on the North East crisis, as they have already done naming it a ''package'' and then hitching it with the on going war. This war they would claim should be won, for the package to be implemented and the executive presidency to be abolished and therefore a mandate should be given to finish the war in the form of a vote for Chandrika at the next presidential polls. But how naive is our voter?

Credibility
The PA should realise, they are duty bound to deliver the goods they promised and it is only on the credibility of that, they could depend on the votes. And they should also realise they cannot and will not be able to lead the people blindly with bizarre and take strap lines to their campaign. It is also time the PA realise they still have time to gain some lost credibility, if they prove they are determined to end the executive presidency'' though belatedly.

That needs on the first instance the delinking of the artificially and unnecessarily linked ''package to end the North-East war'' and the proposed ''provision for the abolition of the executive presidency''. These are two different issues, neither complementary to each other nor contradictory in character and therefore could be addressed independently and separately. And on that basis the SLFP leadership has three options to address the issue of their own credibility.

i. They could move an amendment to the present constitution, to abolish the executive presidency, allowing the incumbent president to continue in office till the lapse of her term as Executive President. Then the next general elections would install a government with full executive powers vested with the parliament and the prime minister. Parliament could thereafter appoint a symbolic President, may be in the Indian way.

ii. They could move an amendment to the constitution to abolish the executive presidency, providing for a general election to elect a government with full executive powers vested with the parliament and the prime minister as head of government. The incumbent president could then continue as the non executive nominal head of state.

iii. They could also move an amendment to abolish the entire cause on presidential immunity in the present constitution and make the president answerable to the highest judicial forum if challenged, thus making the president equal to any citizen in the country, before the law, as the French or the American presidents.

Political cunning
This definitely requires a two thirds majority in parliament, which the PA does not have at present. But it also requires a lot of political cunning from the UNP to defeat such an amendment. The UNP could be the creator of the constitution with the executive presidency, but, can they now go before the people and justify a stand that deprives the people of having a more democratic parliament?

If on the other hand they opt to the obstinate enough to withdraw their votes in parliament to defeat such an amendment, then the PA had won their day. The PA had moved to fulfil their election pledge which the UNP had sabotaged. If the UNP complies, again the PA wins, having honoured the promise.

This of course would not solve the entire problem the PA is facing today. That is the reason why the PA is fighting shy of such a political strategy. They fear this alone would not provide them with enough votes at the next parliamentary elections. They possibly cannot avoid the charges of ''dooshanaya'', their second main platform at the previous elections.

The president would have to say why she did not bring those political colleagues of hers who have serious charges of corruption amounting to bribery, to a public hearing at the Galle Face green, as promised by her at every election meeting. ''Bheesha-naya'' too is no less significant and would need adequate answers with Anamaduwa, Eppawala, at least, staining the PA track records.

The worst would be the cost of living. The lack of trickling down of economic benefits to the lower layers of the society, both urban and rural. Bread, would definitely be one strong issue, that would ice the cake for the opposition. The prevalent disillusionment with the PA provincial activities on the performance of their own government, adds to the agonies of the PA parliamentarians who would find it difficult to mobilise their voters.

These are negative factors, most PA electoral organizers are experiencing and feel they could circumvent them by pushing forward the charisma of their ever smiling very charming leader at a presidential election. This I am sure is too primitive an approach to hoodwink the people. Political images or figures have failed even on better agendas as explained at the beginning of his article.

Thus the safer approach for the PA would be to honour at least one of its major promises by moving to abolish the executive presidency and then face the people on one to one basis at Provincial Council elections, as credible politicians. This could be one promising way of making their sinking ship to stay afloat till the next general elections, when, who knows what would happen?