In analysing which way the cookie is going to crumble at a future election, one has to take into account the worldwide trends. It can be observed that these political cycles during which one or the other side may be ascendent. Making predictions on the basis of these worldwide political cycles is a little like making political predictions on the basis of astrological calculations. There is no rational explanation for these political cycles, but they seem real enough.

During the late seventies and throughout the decade of the eighties, the conservatives were on the rise. The UNP won a landslide victory in 1977, the British Conservative Party won a landslide victory under Margaret Thatcher in 1979. The Republican Party of the USA won in 1980, and this period saw the political parties of a conservative mould generally being ascendent. Even though Sri Lanka was an underdeveloped country amongst so many developed democracies, the two party system that has evolved in this country bears an uncanny resemblance to the two party systems prevalent in the UK or USA and other developed democracies. I was surprised to find in reading Margaret Thatcher’s autobiography “Path to Power”, that if some of the names and dates were blacked out, the book might have been a description of the UNP and the SLFP!

The two party system which has evolved in the democratic countries is basically a division between a Conservative type party and a slightly “pinkish” Social Democratic type party. By and large, the UNP, the Conservative Party and the Republican Party and the Christian Democratic Party in Germany think and act alike. Similarly, the Democratic Party of America, the Labour Party of Britain and the SLFP of Sri Lanka resemble each other in their policy emphasis, projection to the public etc. They are perceived by their respective population also in a similar manner. For instance, the image that J. R. Jayewardene had among Sri Lankans was in large measure similar to the image that both Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan had among their own population. They were all regarded as “Yankee” types.

It was thus no accident that Margaret Thatcher, Ronald Reagan, J. R. Jayewardene all came to assume power at around the same time. They were riding a wave of conservative ascendency. This wave of conservative ascendency lasted for an average of fifteen years in the various countries and during this period the face of the world was decisively changed. The conservative creed became the bedrock of mankind’s political perception. So much so that the opposing social system of Communism died a natural death during this period of Conservative triumph. Even in a place like China, reformers like Deng Xiao Ping became ascendent about the same time as Reagan JRJ and Thatcher...

The period of Conservative ascendency came to an end during the early nineties. The Conservative parties which had held power for twelve, seventeen, or eighteen years began to loose one by one. The first to go was the Republican Party in 1992, next the UNP was defeated in 1994. The British Conservatives lost in 1996. This was a period of retreat for the conservatives and what happened in Sri Lanka in 1994 was a reflection of the times. Nothing could have prevented it.

The manner in which the old Social Democratic parties recaptured power after spending many, many years in the opposition was once again uncannily similar. In Sri Lanka, Britain, the United States and now in Germany, the old Social Democrats shed their old ideologies, adopted new policies which followed closely upon the conservative agenda, they appointed new, attractive younger elders like Bill Clinton, Tony Blair, Chandrika Kumaratunga, Gerhard Schroeder etc. and came into power with a polished and refurbished image. The old Conservatives exhausted after wielding power for three or four terms, simply wilted under the new more aggressive Social Democratic challenge. Moreover, the old fears which the Conservatives had used to keep the Social Democrats out of power for so long, now no longer applied to the new, more modernised, and almost unrecognisably polished new Social Democrats. Tony Blair, Bill Clinton and Chandrika Kumaratunga all use a vocabulary totally different to that used by their parties in the past.

Thus the decade of the nineties became by and large a “Social Democratic decade” as against the Conservative decade of the eighties. The question was, when is the trend going to change? When are the conservatives going to come back into power? In this context, I watched with baited breath the German elections of September 1998. One could guage by the outcome of this election whether the Conservative trend was beginning to reassert itself or whether the Social Democratic wave still was ascendent. Germany was one place where the Conservative block led by the Christian Democratic Party of Helmut Khol had held out.

But in the past year, the CDU was under siege from the newly refurbished Social Democratic Party of Gerhard Schroeder. Once again the established pattern was visible. A younger and more dynamic leader takes over an ailing Social Democratic party, polishes it up, changes its vocabulary, exerts charismatic appeal to the masses, and capitalises on the need of the people for “a change”. Initially, Khol and the CDU were swept off their feet by the new image of the Social Democrats. (Like the UNP, the Conservative party and the Republicans before him. Helmut Khol too had been in power for an unbroken period of sixteen years.) But as time went on, Kohl slowly began to ragain points he had lost. It almost seemed as if Kohl would succeed in reversing the Social Democratic ascendency by defeating the Social Democrats once again, even if only by a small margin.

But the conclusion of the German elections left the Christian Democratic party defeated though only by a small margin. The era of landslide victories for the “New” Social Democrats is over. Social Democracy is still ascendent and Conservatism still in retreat, but the beginnings of a new pro-Conservative trend is already visible. It might not be a dramatic ascendency like in the late seventies or the eighties. However, the early years of the twenty first century will almost certainly see a resurgence of the Conservative parties.

What does this mean for Sri Lanka? The chances are that if an election is held immediately, while the Social Democratic trend is still in the ascendent, the PA may have a better chance of winning than if the election is held at the appointed time i.e., in two years time. There was some speculation that the PA was trying to advance the Presidential election to the end of this year instead of having it in the year 2000 as scheduled.

This would be a wise move from the point of view of the PA, as the signs are very clear that with each passing month, the momentum of the Social Democratic wave is waning. The worldwide trend is turning the other way, not in a drastic way, but clearly enough to indicate that the prospects for victory for the Social Democrat types after the year 2000 will be slim indeed.

If the government goes in for an election immediately, they might be able to defy fate and remain in power beyond the year 2000, but if they fail to act NOW, they may loose whatever initiative they still have.

Cat’s Eye welcomes the selection of Jennifer Moragoda as the new President of the Duncan White Foundation (DWF), since it is an important event for women in sports in Sri Lanka, and the only occasion that a woman has been selected to a decision-making position within male-dominated sports organizations. While most other sporting cultures are increasingly conscious of issues regarding women in sports, the elite, more appropriately the boys-club, that organize local sports production in Sri Lanka are still in the Neanderthal stage on gender equity. So, we hope that Jennifer will make some practical interventions in this area.

The DWF exists in a sports culture, where only a minority of young girls participate in local sports. Despite the rhetoric about sporting excellence, most of these young girls’ duration in sports ends with adolescence, particularly as an effect of the (O’levels and A’levels) exam rites of passage. In effect, patriarchy has it’s mechanisms in place fabricating feminity, at this particular age, to mean that young women do not participate in the public masculine domain of sports.

The silver medallist at the recent Commonwealth Games Sriyani Kulawanasa, at age 28, is a role model not only for young women in sports, but all women who strive to be fit and healthy.

Sriyani Kulawansa

The few brave souls that continue to participate in sports beyond adolescence, are faced with the task of dealing with patriarchy in various forms, especially to display loyalty to the conservative (male) bureaucracy that governs them (see Cat’s Eye of Nov. 26th, 1997). Take for instance, the recently concluded Commonwealth Games in Malaysia. The opening ceremonies were telecast locally and our team was proudly shown for a few seconds, men in Western coat and tie and women in sari. We have previously pointed out the whole male bias in enforcing the sari as “national” team uniform for our athletic women. We hope that the new president of the DWF takes an active role in changing this nonsensical dress code.

Sports Women in Saris
Most countries have multiple official team uniforms for their athletes for separate public occasions such as opening, closing, awards ceremonies and official “casual” wear for various other functions. But the Sri Lankan international sports teams and male officialdom who are seasoned foreign travellers (mostly on public funds), are oblivious to these changes. Considering that garment manufacturing is one of our main foreign exchange earners, it is a tragi-comedy at our international sports representatives are just reduced to looking like the cabin crew for Air Lanka at public official ceremonies. Have we lost all creative potential to change this archaic, unimaginative public image of our sporting stars? When sports is also linked with the celebration of bodily motion, why do we normalize “official” dress codes that contradict this very essence of sports?

A prime reason for reproducing this banal colonial and patriarchal mentality, is that the old-guard (and the status quo) of the local sports culture (men in the state bureaucracy, private sector, and media) still have a master-slave approach to sports. As such, most of them regard the opening ceremony as some immutable sacred ritual to endorse this backward officialdom. Mostly reliving their nostalgic boyhood days of sports glories, these mature men continue to reproduce a culture in which most young girls never even get a chance to participate in sports.

We hope that Jennifer Moragoda will pioneer a move away from these male-biased irrationalities to understand sport as a part of global popular culture. While we do realize that sport in popular culture is determined mostly by big business, advertising, consumerism, and entertainment, we also recognize the modernizing potential of popular culture. Considering the complete lack of sports marketing, most of our individual athletes are unlikely to receive any personalized T. V. coverage. Thus, we could at least be creative in the area of a team “image”. Why not involve some local designers, garment factory owners and organize a range of sporty outfits? We really don’t have a large number of international athletes and it would be a minor capital investment.

A Modern Sports Culture?
Looking at the “distinguished” list of private sector CEOs connected with the DWF, this is an opportunity for them to sponsor a range of team uniforms such as official wear for various occasions, official “causal” wear, competition wear accessories, etc. But all this should focus on a creative, functional mode of dress for our women in sports. After doing the “stronger, faster, higher” thing in the public gaze, having to jump into a sari is not the most liberating experience. We have some talented world-class female athletes and we hope that Jennifer will take her position seriously and make this needed reform in the team uniform (and infuse some creativity to all those captains of industry involved with the DWF).

After 50 years of Independence it’s time those involved in the local sports culture, start looking to the future and clear the ground for a “modern” sports culture. As Jennifer had mentioned, if the DWF is not a “charity” organization: It is time to make our private sector sports enthusiasts break-out of their male-bias to actively promote women in sports, as athletes, coaches, administrators, officials, journalists, commentators, photographers and educators, thereby transforming sexist attitudes in sports.

‘School of Rape’ in Burma
Many of us in Sri Lanka are now pretty well informed on the almost 40-year long war waged by the Burmese military junta against its ethnic minorities. Indeed, the courageous writings, speeches and actions of Aung Sang Suu Kyi have done much to give publicity to the atrocities perpetrated by the State Peace and Development Council — as the military regime now calls itself. A recent report entitled “School of Rape” complied by Earthrights International, an organisation dedicated to safeguarding human rights and environment, now sheds light on yet another little documented aspect of the civil war in Buruma — the sexual abuse of women by Burmese soldiers.

The report conservatively estimates that nearly 1.3 million Burmese women and girls who have “fled to camps or are in flight inside Burma’s borders” are at high risk of military rape. In fact, many thousands of them might have already been sexually violated, the report notes, as accurate figures are hard to come by due to the reluctance of victims to talk about their experiences. The rapes take place under a variety of circumstances: when soldiers invade villages, when women are summoned to army bases, when women work as forced labour in infrastructural projects, when women are suspected of being associated with a group opposed the regime or when they are made to make “forced marriages” with soldiers. The report further discloses that the majority of the affected women belong to the more than 20 ethnic minority groups in Burma. Though several groups have signed ceasefire agreements with the military junta since 1995, the war continues against factions of the Karen, Shan, Karenni and Chin minority groups who have refused to give up their battle against the regime. Though armies belonging to these ethnic groups are not known to rape women while capturing territory from the Burmese army, some activists have pointed out that these armies are also very male-dominated and tend to ignore the plight of women, sometimes even playing down the rape of their women by Burmese soldiers.

Military Leadership to Blame
The author of the report, Betsy Apple, explains the pervading silence and denial surrounding the rapes occurring in Buruma as a result of the naturalisation of rape as an intrinsic part of warmongering. She points out that there is a common public assumption that sexual activity is necessary to maintain men’s sense of their masculinity. In addition, rape is treated as a sexual rather than a violent act which leads to rape being seen as “an unavoidable and perhaps even necessary aspect of war.” Apple further notes that the key to understanding the phenomenon of rape in war is to examine its origins and causes by scrutinising the lives, background and experiences of the rank and file soldiers of the Burmese army. The report reveals at not only is the majority of thesoldiers in the 300,000-strong Burmese army below the age of 18 but that many of them have been forcibly recruited into the army, are being denied access to their families as well as basic comforts and medical treatment, and that their daily lives are subjected to extreme forms of torture and violence within the military. In addition, the soldiers have been “brainwashed” to think that the Burmese race is the finest and thus rape as a tool of ethnic cleansing and a propagator of he Burmese race becomes a mere extension of the that logic. The Burmese military, in other words, has created an environment which supports and perpetuates rape.

The Earthrights International’s report recommends that the army leadership publicly condemn rape by soldiers and officers and notify army personnel that rape under any circumstances will not be tolerated. The report also argues for changes in the army’s policies of forcible recruitment of soldiers and for provision of more humane treatment. Ultimately, it concludes, it is the leadership of the Burmese army which must take full responsibility for human rights abuses by its troops.

Clinton’s feudal Ideology
“When Clinton confessed that he had sinned at the White House prayer breakfast — comparing himself to King David asking God’s forgiveness for having sex with Bathsheba — he was publicly bowing down before the Grand Inquisitor and pitching his remarks to the Christian right. He even went so far as to say that even if the Star investigation was intrusive and unjust, it might be to the good. And when he finally got around to mentioning Monica Lewisnky in public as anything other than ‘that woman, Ms. Lewinsky,’ He brought up all this feudal ideology about apologizing to her family — as though Monica was the property of her family and his mistreatment of her was an affront to their family ‘honor.’”

— From Article in Revolutionary Worker, (USA)

Human rights violations in the context of uprisings against the state have long been known to exist in Sri Lanka. But many of them have been swept beneath the carpet, or under mounds of earth, as at the infamous location of Suriyakanda. Now another mass grave is alleged to exist at Chemmani in the Jaffna peninsula.

Successive Sri Lankan governments have repeatedly promised to address the ugly issue and prosecute the perpetrators. But very few investigations into the human rights violations by agents of the state have in fact taken place. Hardly any at all have reached a satisfactory conclusion.

The government’s successful prosecution of the Krishanthi Kumaraswamy case seemed to have changed all that. The Sri Lankan government today is following a sophisticated policy.

It is one that combines both the political and military aspects of warfare to meet the Tamil nationalist challenge that is spearheaded by the LTTE. Ever since the breakdown of peace talks in April 1995, the Sri Lankan government has been able to wrest the political initiative away from the Tamil cause. Along with its devolution package, the government has been successful in projecting peace and human rights-oriented messages to the world.

The government has also ensured that the continuing military censorship leaves us and the rest of the world in the dark about the happenings in the north-east. By way of contrast, the LTTE has not been able to evolve into a more politically sophisticated organisation. The messages it has been bombarding the world with have been horrifying ones of destruction and cold blooded murder.

The Central Bank bombing followed by the Galadari bombing in which US personnel were perceived as targetted, the bombing of the Temple of the Tooth, and the murders of two Mayors of Jaffna, may have earned the LTTE short term gains, but at long term cost, especially in terms of international credibility.

If the LTTE is to be a liberation movement it needs to change. More, it owes it to the Tamil people to come up with more political ways, instead of sheer militarism, to lead the Tamils of Sri Lanka to a better future. The facts may be that on the ground, in the north-east, the Sri Lankan security forces have perpetrated atrocities.

But in the messages that go out internationally, about respecting human rights and the rule of law, the government has been ahead. So it continues to lay claim to the vast resources of the international community. The Krishanthi Kumaraswamy verdict has further strengthened its credentials as a democratic government striving against the odds to solve an intractable problem.

EROSION
Young Krishanthi Kumaraswamy’s rape and murder, and the murder of her mother, brother and neigbour who went in search of her, might not have surfaced to the attention of the public if not for her family’s connections and President Chandrika Kumaratunge’s orders that a proper investigation should be done.

Still for all, the investigations may have come to nothing if not for the pressure continuously put on the government by local and international NGOs and civil groups. No government would like to preside over investigations of its own armed forces who are protecting the government when it is at war.

But on this occasion, the government clearly made a determined effort to make an example of the accused rapists/murderers belonging to the security forces. With the escalation in the size of the Sri Lankan security forces, and their increased muscle, more and more incidents have been reported of indiscipline even with regard to non-Tamil civilians outside the north-east battlegrounds.

Therefore, the accused found themselves without any allies, and a good opportunity to emphasise the supremacy of civilian authority over the military presented itself and was taken. Undoubtedly the severe verdict by the three judge bench, only the fourth non-jury criminal trial in Sri Lankan history, and completed in the record time of two years, who passed the death sentence on the accused will instill a greater degree of accountability of the security forces all over the country.

Even non-Tamil parents in other parts of the country will breath easier that an exemplary punishment has been directed against those who choose to be brutes in uniform. Regular critics of the government such as Amnesty International were quick to praise the government. But the allegation of the mass grave site at Chemmani has

begun to erode once again the credibility of the government’s commitment to putting an end to human rights abuses by its armed forces and prosecuting the culprits. Over three months have now passed since the allegation of mass graves were made by the First Accused in the Krishanthi Kumaraswamy case who was convicted of rape and murder and sentenced to death.

So far no decisive action seems to have been taken by the government to investigate the alleged site in a systematic manner. The government’s reputation for taking human rights seriously received a significant boost locally and internationally by virtue of a single successful prosecution against low ranking soldiers who had acted on their own in the rape and murder case.

But the awful reality is that so long as a savage and no-holds-barred war between the government forces and the LTTE takes place, the major causes of the human rights abuses will continue. High ranking officers may also be implicated and the government’s hands will be tied due to its dependence on the very armed forces who are engaging in the abuses.

GOVERNMENTAL DILEMMA
The allegation of a mass grave site near Jaffna has a certain ring of truth in view of the actual disappearences of several hundred persons after allegedly being taken into military custody in Jaffna in 1996.

This was in the aftermath of two major setbacks suffered by the military in July, the first being the assassination of the Jaffna town commander Brigadier Hamangoda and the second being the fall of the Mullaitivu army camp with the loss of over 1200 soldiers.

After several attempts made by relatives of the missing to meet the President, and threats made by the EPDP to stop supporting the government in Parliament, President Kumaratunga did meet them in 1997. She promised the relatives of the missing that the government would investigate their charges.

But now two Jaffna-based civic organisations, the Council of Non Governmental Organisations in the Jaffna District and the Guardian Association for Persons Arrested and Disappeared in the North have made representations to both local and foreign organisations regarding their concern at the delay in the investigation of the alleged mass grave at Chemmani.

After complaining that the delay will mean that investigations will soon be impossible in view of the flooding of the site by monsoonal rains, the latter has written “Further, we who are in Jaffna are highly suspicious about the security of the site at Chemmani.

We requested the government to set up an independent body to guard the Chemmani area. The government is saying that the place will be guarded. But upto now nothing has been done in this regard.

Moreover the suspected area of mass graves is under the control of the army during curfew hours (8.30 pm to 5.00 am) at night. Nobody else could have access to this area during the curfew hours except the Sri Lanka forces, who are being implicated as perpetrators of the arrests and disappearances of nearly 600 people in the North.

Alarmingly, we hear news these days that some unknown persons are active during curfew hours in making physical changes in this suspected Chemmani area to erase any clues of human bodies.” Undoubtedly, the government finds itself in a difficult situation on the issue.

Digging up the alleged grave site can open up a can of worms that can seriously affect the government’s relationship with the army. Even the old JVP time allegations of mass graves at Suriyakande are not being effectively investigated as top army officers are implicated.

But they are also the persons on whose leadership the government is relying on to defeat the LTTE threat to itself. Curiously, the LTTE has taken a relatively low key attitude towards the alleged mass graves. They have not made vast propaganda out of the issue.

It is believed that the LTTE too has mass graves of its opponents in Jaffna. Despite its difficulties in digging up the site, the government should at least perform a minimum function to establish its credibilty with the people at this time.

It should take concrete action to reassure the relatives of the missing and the people in general that the alleged grave site will not be tampered with or destroyed. The government could make it clear, that while investigations may not be taking place today for a variety of reasons, they will some day, and the evidence will be preserved for that day.

Accordingly, the government should take steps to ensure that officers of the Human Rights Commission are permitted to permanently monitor the alleged grave site until investigations are completed. Independent journalists should also be given periodic access to the site to report on its condition.

In the longer term it will be necessary for the government to come to terms with the issue of human rights violations by the armed forces, especially in areas under virtual military rule. Of course a context of war makes this difficult.

Peace is necessary for that, which is why there are so many vested interests in the continuation of the war. Perhaps this is why the South African solution of “Truth Commissions” that can pardon those who confess and are repentant may be pragmatic for Sri Lanka also.