Referendum:The only conclusive opinion poll

Last week there was much jubilation among the so called ‘pacifist’ lobbies and NGOs following the announcement of the results of a public opinion poll conducted by the Centre for Anthropological and Sociological Studies based in the University of Colombo with the financial and technical assistance of a German Political Foundation, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung. This sample survey had been of 2000 heads of households of which 1915 were Sinhalese. Its stated objective is to ascertain the views of the Sinhalese on the ethnic question and its solution.(The opinion polls are published on this page)

One of the questions asked had been ‘ Do you think that military action alone can solve the problem?’ The results of the survey had been that 77 percent replied ‘ no’ while only 21 percent said ‘ yes’. From this response and responses to some other questions, it has been interpreted that the majority of the Sinhalese is against the military offensive. As one commentator in The Island said: ‘In other words the vast majority of the Sinhalese rejected the view that the ongoing war is simply a terrorist problem to which there is a military solution’.

We leave it to our readers to decide for themselves whether this interpretation is logical or not.

We have reiterated in these columns that The Island hopes very much that a political solution is possible and this on going violence should cease and peace dawns on this country. But hard realities have to be faced and peace cannot be brought about with wishful and erroneous thinking.

Opinion polls are new to this country and there is no known Sri Lankan institution that has experience in conducting such polls. Foreign institutions may not understand the psyche of Sri Lankans well enough to conduct such polls. For example,Sri Lankans, by and large, save the politically committed, play their political cards very close to their chest and do not voice their opinions openly. Opinion polls are indeed a very important factor in modern democracies but this art/science has to be developed taking into consideration the particular traits of the people involved . Objectivity and accuracy are sine qua non.

The question posed: ‘Do you think military action alone can solve the problem’, could be categorised as a loaded question. Obviously no one in his senses will say, ‘yes’. Even after a military victory, there has to be a political solution brought about. On the other hand the question could have been as follows: ‘Do you think political negotiations alone can solve the problem?’ Any sensible person would answer in the negative, considering the nature and intransigence of the terrorists for 15 years, thus giving rise to the reverse interpretation.

In fact, the question about a political solution has posed but with other five suggested answers close to a political solution, unlike in the question of a direct ‘yes’ or ‘no’ to a military solution. Only 11.4 percent had answered in the affirmative.

There are glaring contradictions evident in the results of the polls. To the question whether they saw more opportunities for people to solve their problems under the provincial council system as compared to before, 61.5 percent had said, ‘ yes’ and 33.9 percent ‘ ‘no’.But in reply to the question: ‘Do you know about the government proposals on devolution of power, 44.0 per cent had said ‘ no’. If 95 percent could have spoken in favour of devolution of power or against against it, how does it account for 44 percent not knowing about the devolution package ?

The question: ‘What are the issues involved in the conflict in the North has the following options: Genuine grievances; Racism; Separate State, Greed for Power, Harassment; Do not know. But the most fundamental factor of all ‘ Terrorism’ has not been suggested !

This perhaps accommodates the view that terrorism is not the cause of this current conflict.

Opinion polls are not needed to determine that the people of this country are peace loving and want to settle problems through dialogue and not through violence. Those who say the Sinhalese - Buddhists want a military solution are those who invented an academic - journalistic shorthand to explain the current conflict: ‘The historical text of the Sinhalese, the Mahavamsa, has proclaimed that this is the land of the Sinhalese - Buddhists who have suppressed the rights of minorities and attempted genocide of the Tamils who have been compelled to take to arms to fight Sinhala - Buddhist oppression’.

Paradoxically, this shorthand thesis is contradicted by the results of the opinion polls — the Sinhalese having rejected the military option. Has the moment of truth finally arrived?

Just as much we would like to believe the results of the opinion poll let us not forget that the only conclusive poll on this issue is a countrywide referendum.