      |
|
|
|
International Year of the Ocean and the seas around Sri Lanka
By Professor Ananda Gunatilaka
(Based on an Address given on the 15th October 1998 in Colombo)1998 has been declared as the International Year of the Ocean by the United Nations Organization. We have come to know more about the geology of the oceans in the last 35 years than in all of previous human history. The oceans constitute about 72 per cent of the earth’s surface. About 81 per cent of the Southern Hemisphere are covered by ocean, compared with 61 per cent of the Northern Hemisphere. A glance at a globe shows us that the world ocean is broken up by large continental areas into a few major oceans and numerous smaller oceans and seas. What we see in a map of the world is only the latest configuration, since the relative positions of continents and oceans have been in a state of dynamic change throughout geologic time (c.4 billion years).
Geologists can now trace these changes back to more than 1 billion years (lGy). However, both continents and oceans form only a thin veneer on the earth’s surface. Oceans are not permanent features of the Earth. They are created and destroyed over geologic time as a result of deep- seated geophysical processes. Oceans are created when continents are split-up by these processes; they are destroyed and closed when continents collide with each other and major mountain belts are formed. When the Alpine-Himalayan mountain chain formed, the major ocean of that time - the Tethys was closed up. However, trailing behind were the newer oceans of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian, formed when continental masses fragmented and moved along pre-determined paths from an original position close to the Antarctic landmass. The splitting, drifting and collision of continental and oceanic plates were associated with one of the most fundamental, yet "destructive" processes of the planet - that of volcanic activity. In fact, mantle degassing through numberless volcanic emanations over geologic time was responsible for generating most of the water in the oceans. A major eruption throws up millions of tonnes of steam into the atmosphere during its active lifespan, which soon condenses into water. In fact, this is one of the great quantification exercises in geochemical cycling. Oceans are relatively young features of our planet. The Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) over the last 35 years has shown us that no modern ocean floor is older than c.200Ma (million years). The Indian Ocean the youngest of the great oceans, started opening up only c.125Ma ago.
Deserts
Of the 28 per cent of continental area, a significant proportion is occupied by the world’s deserts (~6 per cent), glaciated terranes ( - 4 per cent), major mountainous regions (- 4 per cent) and lakes (~ 2 per cent). This leaves only a very small area for human habitation and agriculture (~12 per cent). Of more than 5.8 billion people on earth, more than 2 billion live within 60km from the shoreline and hundreds of millions live at or near sea level in the coastal and fertile delta plains, thus exerting tremendous pressures on the oceanic realms. Bangladesh are a case in point, where more than half the country was under water in September 1998. The shallow shelf seas around us play a critical role in the dynamics of regional and global climatic systems, which in turn is mediated by aesthetic sea-level changes, causing rapid and really significant expansion and contraction of the global sea surface as these marginal seas wax and wane (more than 30 times in the last 2 million years). The last contraction caused a fall in sea level of >130m only just 18,000 years ago. Their thermal characteristics influence heat exchange between oceans and adjacent landmasses, evaporation from the sea surface (and therefore terrestrial aridity) and, with nutrient supply, have profound effects on marine bio-production. Between 20 and 50 per cent of all marine primary productivity occurs in these shallow shelf regions, which in turn impacts on the global carbon cycle. Such considerations are also important in the long-term economic health and management of resources, given that ~99 per cent of all fisheries are within these shallow seas. The shelves around us play a prominent role in controlling flexes and flows from land to ocean (e.g. the well known Heinrich and Meltwater Events). Climatic variability and sealevel instability (e.g.due to abnormal monsoonal regimes or El-Nino type events and global warming phenomena) will impact severely on coastal communities with serious economic and social consequences. If the present climatic trends continue and hot-house gases (chiefly carbon dioxide) increase in the atmosphere, scientists predict a general increase in global sea levels in another 100 years (when world population could be in excess of 7 billion). The resulting flooding will force depopulation from the coastal zone - and inevitably into the already shrinking arable lands. The consequences for agriculture will be disastrous.As the world population continues to increase, the shallow seas around us will become the growing repositories for the undesirable end products and refuse of modern industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. Coastal pollution is now a problem out of control. A significant proportion of the oil and gas production in the world occurs in the shelf areas. Production platforms are very common in water depths of up to 400m. Recent engineering has seen the construction of wellheads and platform anchoring systems in more than 1000m water depth. Exploration for hydrocarbons is now proceeding in depths greater than 2000m, which will necessitate production-engineering systems in unprecedented depths. At the same time the installation of telephone and electricity cables has moved to depths of thousands of metres, and the laying of pipelines has reached water depths of up to 600m. These advances have spawned an entirely new engineering technology which involves design, installation and maintenance of structures in difficult manner settings, where a major factor can be natural sea-floor instability involving dramatic changes in morphology, slopeing radient and sediment characteristics. These changes drastically affect engineering structures. Sea- floor instability can be due to sea-bottom erosion, bedform migration, faulting, submarine landslides, fluid explosions etc. Areas of high sediment deposition such as deltas, of high regional seismic risk and local tectonic movements, high bottom currents and wave activity, hurricanes etc. all affect engineering structures. Sea-floor instability poses major problems to coastal and offshore structures because it can alter foundation conditions, apply lateral or vertical stresses, and bury man made structures. The recorded examples where seabed structures, coastal infrastructures such as tunnels, ports and bridges have suffered great damage and destruction due to such instability are legendary. Entire cities have been destroyed by seafloor instability in historical times.
As the use of the seabed becomes a necessity worldwide, we need a better understanding of these remote and poorly known processes. The increasing use of the coastal zone for housing and development means that coastal zone management must include knowledge of such processes, both for economic development decisions and disaster/risk assessment and management. The engineering activity associated with sea-floor resource exploitation and development will require better understanding of seafloor processes at ever increasing water depths. We have to be aware of geological hazards in all these matters. Finally, the increasing use of the ocean for transport and trade have their own impacts on this very fragile environment - a fragility which could be destroyed essentially by human activity. IT IS ALL OF THE ABOVE FACTORS AND THEIR REPERCUSSIONS WHICH HAVE MADE THE MARINE SCIENTISTS OF THE WORLD DECLARE 1998 AS THE YEAR OF THE OCEAN AND WARN US 1N TIME. It is a warning for all governments to reach a consensus as to how we manage the oceanic realm sensibly.
The seas around Sri Lanka
With the above perspectives in mind, where does tiny Sri Lanka stand in the scheme of things. I have chosen a few problems at hand not only because of their priority, but also because the powers that be are in a position to do something about them in our national interest. Sri Lanka is surrounded by the Indian Ocean, which is characterized by very narrow continental shelves (average width is about 90km, with only 9 per cent of the total oceanic area), in contrast to those oceans with wide shelves (up to 400km width). Conse-quently, the extent of coastal upwelling, primary production and fisheries is relatively small. Our average shelf width is only about 25km. With an 18.5 million and growing population in Sri Lanka we are facing a fisheries crisis. It may therefore become necessary to have alternative sources of fish protein for our needs. Just 18,000 years ago when global sea levels were about 130m lower than that of today due to the ice age, Sri Lanka’s shoreline would have been around 25-35km offshore from where it is now, with the shelf totally exposed. Think of the implications for our fisheries and climate. Shelf width is geologically determined in all oceans.Sri Lankas’ economic zone in the Indian Ocean is about seven times its land area (c. 450,000 sq.km.). It is also entitled to an extended economic zone of at least twelve times its land area (over 700,000 sq.km), which has to be claimed by the year 2004 (and partly shared with India). The limits of this zone are where sediment thickness is c. lkm. These areas and limits are determined by the International Commission on the Sea Bed. If we do not stake our claim, there is a likelihood we may forfeit it. This is the domain of the Foreign Affairs Ministry of the Government of Sri Lanka. The claim has to be reinforced by a lot of geological data on the seabed in this zone, before we present our case to this Commission. The data can only be acquiesced by accessing a database, which is the "property" of international oceanographic organizations.
And there is no guarantee that this data will be available simply because the various geophysical and oceanographic surveys did not cover all of the area entitled to us.
Of continuing concern to Sri Lanka are the problems of coastal erosion and coastal pollution. Coastal erosion is caused by three major activities. The destruction of the coral reefs around the island, which afforded a natural barrier and protection against winds, waves and currents (especially under monsoonal conditions) has been going on for centuries and does so still. Even without coral mining, extreme climatic conditions will erode the coastline to some degree. And secondly, though not emphasized much, the construction of the various hydro-reservoirs and dams inland has impeded the replenishment of the coastal zone with sediment by normal river processes. Also, the mining of river sand inland for construction purposes have drastically reduced the sediment budget in the coastal zone. There is simply not enough sediment moving downstream as a consequence of these activities. There is a net deficit in the sand budget causing hydrodynamic disequilibrium in the coastal areas. The result is coastal erosion. Also, coastal developments such as groynes, ports, harbours and piers make their contribution to erosion in no small measure. No amount of coast conservation and environmental laws will put matters right, simply because governments are unable to enforce and implement these laws - which is a general Sri Lankan problem. Such laws must have severe deterrent clauses incorporated into them.
Coast Conservation Department surveys has indicated that the extent of erosion is most intense along the western and northwestern coastal zones. The 685km strip from Kalpitiya to the Ruhuna National Park boundary is estimated to lose annually 175,000 to 2850.00 square metres of land area to erosion. Of this, some 50 to 70 per cent are lost from the 137km coasted strip stretching from the mouth of the Kelani River to Talawila. This area has two characteristics - the high population density and the fact that several major rivers with depleted sand volumes debauch into the coast. Always, the highest rates of erosion are immediately north of the river mouths. These rivers are also the ones where intense inland sand mining occur (e.g. the Kelani, Maha, Mi and Deduru). In some areas it is known that a 10-15m wide coastal strip is removed during monsoon conditions. The distal 15km of the channel bed of the Kelani River is so deep now due to sand removal that during dry seasons when water levels are low, seawater enters the channel at high tide and moves several km upstream. It is not surprising that the beaches of Wattala, Uswetikeyiyawa are presently undergoing severe erosion. The entire western coastline is really a "squatter coast" with its natural equilibrium in jeopardy.
There is no reason why sea sand from offshore (after washing) cannot be used for construction purposes. After all, all sea sand was originally derived from the land. We will only be reclaiming it. It is high time that all river sand mining is curtailed forthwith and sea sand is used for construction (at least partly), even if it costs marginally more. There are precedents for such measures. The hydraulic filling of the Muturajawela swamp is a case in point, where sand was pumped from offshore sandbars without undue effects to the sand budget in the coastal zone. A dredging programme from say 3km offshore and 20-30m water depth will have minimal effects on the environment. I envisage a permanent offshore sand dredging operation in the future, where sand stockpiles will be a common site along the coasts as our river sand resources are depleted or prohibited from exploitation due to environmental controls and/or problems. In fact, if the scale of the operation is large enough, costs might even come down. These stockpiles can be the source of sand for the future construction industry. It is a case of balancing out the environmental costs as against increased transport costs from coast to island. This is the price we will have to pay if the environment is to be preserved. Only in special circumstances should river sand be used.
We should aim at about 80 per cent sea sand utilization for construction in the near future, thus allowing the rivers to replenish the coastal zone over time and ensure a degree of stability.
Finally, we have to consider the mineral sands in the coastal zone of Sri Lanka. We have been exporting rutile and ilmenite from the northeast coast for close upon 50 years. These are known to have the highest feed grades before baneficiation anywhere in the world. Titanium, which is the key element in these minerals, is used mainly in the manufacture of pigments and paints. About 12 companies worldwide control the pigment industry. Today, there is excess capacity in the business. A new pigment plant will need an investment of US $ 800 million. World market conditions are against such ventures. So, we will continue to export without any value addition. Despite the long history of mineral sand mining we are still clueless as to the volume of this reserve (a primary requirement in any mining operation). Nobody knows how many more reserve years are left in Pulmoddai. No attempt has been made to quantify the deposit accurately. It is now unlikely this could be done soon as the deposit is in a war zone. Recently, a new deposit was reported by NARA scientists on the west coast of Sri Lanka between Panadura and Beruwela at water depths of between 10 and 50m. The upper 2m of the sediment in this area contain mineral sands whose current market value is estimated at about US $ 330 million. Certainly, this is a potential future operation. The sand left over after beneficiation could be used as construction aggregate.
The ocean is too important a realm to be left in ignorance. Many universities in the world, even in landlocked countries and states now teach courses in marine sciences in their curricula. This writer has taught an upper level course in Marine Geology for 12 years, which proved to be very popular with students. Perhaps our universities could take the cue and start such courses, as the ocean becomes increasingly important for us.
Governments of the day will have to carefully assess the impact of population growth and development on the coastal zone, protection of the marine realm and careful management of its resources. The ocean is not a bountiful entity. Striking the optimum balance between competing interests will require great political savvy and management capability. At the core of any policy decisions should be the national and international interests of all the countries on this planet as the problems associated with the ocean are global in nature. I hope this article will inform all concerned where our priorities should be as this millennium comes to an end and a new one dawns.
The writer until recently was Chairman and Professor of Earth Sciences at the University of Oman.
The world economic recession and the East Asian crisis
By Dr. J. B. KelegamaThe world is in the grip of an economic recession. World economic growth, according to the IMF will be 2 per cent in 1998 and 2.5 per cent in 1999 as compared to 4 per cent in 1996 and 1997. Expansion of world trade will be only 3.7 per cent in 1998 as compared to 9.7 per cent in 1997. World market prices of commodities have declined; the Eco-nomist all items commodity price index has fallen by 30 per cent since mid 1997 to its lowest level in real terms for over 25 years; the prices of industrial commodities are at their lowest level in real terms since the 1930s. In the 12 months to mid October 1998 world market prices of oil, wheat, sugar coffee and wool fell by 35-40 per cent and of copper, rubber, and tea by about 20- 25 per cent. The commodity producers - mainly developing countries - are thus most adversely affected. Some 150 million workers are actually unemployed or seeking or available for work and 10 million jobs have been lost this year alone on account of the Asian financial crisis. Stock market prices have plummeted almost everywhere and wiped off nearly $ 4 trillion of worlds financial wealth over July - August 1998 alone.
The leading economy of the world - U.S.A. - whose sneeze is just enough for the world to catch pneumonia - after seven years of economic boom is now showing signs of exhaustion. Stock market index - Dow Jones - has fallen by about 17 per cent since mid July 1998 reflecting a loss of confidence and withdrawal of investment. The current account deficit is estimated to nearly double this year to $ 290 billion from $ 155 billion in 1997 on account of declining exports and rising imports. Manufacturing jobs have fallen by 152,000 since March 1998 and several firms are planning further retrenchment; Gillette for instance has announced job cuts by 4700 worldwide on account of lower sales. Banks and financial institutions have suffered losses from the Asian the Russian crises and one of the largest American hedge funds - Long-Term Capital Management - suffered about $ 100 billion in losses and had to be bailed out on government initiative in September. The U.S. economy is estimated to be growing sluggishly at 1.8 per cent now and is expected to be 2.2 per cent in 1999 as compared to 3.7 per cent in 1997.
In Europe, Britain is expected to have a mild recession while the other countries may fare better. Nevertheless, Euro-pean banks are more heavily exposed than even the American to both the Asian and Russian crises and will therefore suffer some adverse effects. Further Europe is bound to feel the impact of a U.S. recession. In addition five European countries - Belgium, France, Germany, Italy and Spain continue to have high unemployment levels exceeding 10 per cent. Growth in the European Com-munity for 1999 is estimated at 2.4 per cent. The Russian economy has broken down and it will have negative growth for sometime. It had already shrunk with an average annual growth rate of minus 9 per cent in 1996.
Although Russia is a light weight in the world economy, the effects of its crisis on commodity markets, investor confidence and cost of capital are significant. In Latin America, Brazil is expected to contract by 2 per cent by 1999 reducing Latin Ame-rica’s overall growth rate to 0.8 per cent.
Japan is experiencing an acute recession and is estimated to have a negative growth of 1.8 per cent this year. The yen has depreciated by 23 per cent and its stock market has dropped by 26 per cent in the last 12 months. With a banking system saddled with $ 650 billion of bad loans and property values falling for the last six years, there is little hope of a recovery in the near future. As Japan is the largest trader and investor in Asia, its recession bodes no good for the region. In fact a survey of 4500 big firms by Japan’s Economic Planning Agency reveals that the companies plan to cut foreign direct investments by 57 per cent in 1998. This will be a serious blow to the Asian economies who are already hurt by the lack of Japanese demand for their exports.
The recession is expected to deepen in the developing countries next year partly because of the fall in commodity prices and partly because of a diminution in the inflow of foreign capital. According to estimates of J. P. Morgan total net capital flows to emerging markets will drop from $ 247 billion in 1997 to $ 186 billion in 1998 and then to $ 119 billion in 1999.
East Asian Crisis
The origin of the world economic recession lies in the Asian financial crisis which began with Thailand’s devaluation on July 2 1997 and the subsequent devaluation due to contagion effect in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan. The Asian crisis which began as a currency crisis soon became a full blown economic crisis em-bracing currency depreciation, crash of stock markets, bank failures, high interest rates and high credit, collapse of business firms, unemployment, low economic growth and social unrest which even led to change of government. The sharpest fall in the external value of the currency has been in Indonesia where the Rupiah is about 80 per cent lower than the average value in 1996.The values of currencies of Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and South Korea have fallen by about 40 per cent and those of Singapore and Taiwan by about 20 per cent. As far as the stock market is concemed the sharpest fall in stock prices has been in Malaysia where they are 64 per cent lower than a year ago. In South Korea, Thailand, Singapore, and Hong Kong they are about 50 - 60 per cent lower, in Philippines 44 per cent, in Indonesia 32 per cent and in Taiwan 28 per cent lower than a year ago.
Economic growth will be negative this year in six countries - Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, Malay-sia, Hong Kong and Philippine, - and poor in Singapore. China’s growth is expected to slow down to about 6.8 per cent in 1998 as compared to 8.8 per cent in 1997 and Taiwan is likely to decline from 6.9 per cent in 1997 to 5.9 per cent in 1998.
Banks have either closed or restricted their credit; thousands of business firms have put up their shutters and unemployment is rising. Indonesia’s unemployed is estimated to increase to about 20 million by the end of 1998 from about 15 million now; in Thailand there will be about 3 million unemployed and South Korea 2 million unemployed by the end of 1998. Hong Kong’s unemployment is 4.5 per cent of the working force and is the highest since 1983.
Unemployment is rising in all other East Asian countries and immigrant workers are being repatriated.
Over 350 mlilion people are now earning less than $ 1 a day - the World Bank’s poverty line - in South East Asia. In Indonesia alone the number of impoverished is expected to rise from 22 million in 1997 to 88 million in 1998 and 40 million of them will be short of food. Millions of people are living through an economic calamity they never imagined possible. Middle class is fast disappearing and white collar workers are forced to perform manual labour to earn a living. Many children have stopped attending school as parents are unable to pay school fees; hospitals are overcrowded with people suffering from psychological problems; financial difficulties are breaking up marriages; crime rate is rising and suicides are increasing most rapidly.
Ripple Effects
The Asian crisis soon spread to other economies mainly through trade and loss of investor confidence. East and South East Asian countries are sizable importers of oil, other raw materials, and consequently a slump in the region contributed to reduced demand and lower prices - for example of oil. Further East and South East Asia form a substantial market for exports of developed as well as developing countries; Japan for instance, conducts 40 per cent of its trade with the region and USA sells 30 per cent of its exports in Asia.Inevitably, lower exports to East Asia meant lower prices and lower profits and this was a major factor in the Japanese recession and fall in American stock pri- ces. Currency depreciation in East and South East Asian countries also in-creased the competitiveness of their exports vis a vis South Asia and this adversely affected some of the latter’s exports.
Second, foreign investors began to flee from risky emerging markets when they were hurt by the Asian crisis and destablised other markets. Nearer home South Asian stock prices plummeted by 24 per cent in Bombay, 43 per cent in Karachchi, and 36 per cent in Colombo in the last twelve months. In the same period the Indian rupee depreciated by 15 per cent, Pakistan rupee by 12 per cent and Sri Lanka rupee by 10 per cent. Far away, the Russian economy collapsed with its stock market falling by about 50 per cent and the rouble depreciating by over 65 per cent.
The Russian economy was already moribund on account of internal weaknesses and the Asian turmoil only triggered the crisis. It has not only devalued the rouble but also declared a three months moratorium on foreign debt repayments and re-scheduled its domestic debt. Western financial institutions have lost as much as $100 billion on account of losses on the government debt market and on loans to collapsed Russian banks. Even Latin America was affected by the ripple effects; the largest country in the region - Brazil - had to spend nearly $ 22 billion in August 1998 to defend its currency against foreign speculators who had sold their shares for dollars; and further raise its interest rates from 29% to 50%.
What Caused the Crisis
The main reason for the Asian crisis is the withdrawal of large amounts of short - term speculative foreign capital - as much as $ 230 billion within a few weeks. This was a shock which no economy could have borne. Foreign speculators lost confidence in the par value of East Asian countries, felt that the par values could not be supported and converted local currency and local stocks into dollars. The demand for dollars was so high that foreign reserves of Asian countries were woefully inadequate to meet it and they were forced to devalue their currencies to reflect the market’s assessment. The rush to sell stocks to remit the proceeds in dollars in anticipation of devaluation and the short selling on the stock market - in expectation of fall in stock prices led to collapse of stock markets. Thousands of businesses were devastated and defaulted on their loans which in turn led to bank failures and restriction of credit which aggravated the cliffficulties of business. Devaluation and stock market crash made banks default on their foreign loans and this in turn dried up foreign credits.Why did foreign speculators suddenly withdraw their short-term investments? It was certainly not because of unsatisfactory macro-economic fundamentals. All these countries had high growth, low inflation, budget surpluses and large inflows of foreign capital investment. Economic management of East and South East Asian countries had been highly commended before the crisis by the IMF itself. There was however a chink in the armour; almost all banks and business firms in about every East and South East Asian country had borrowed excessively from foreign banks and used a great part of the money to finance real estate speculation, prestigious projects and conspicuous consumption. Asian banks are estimated to hold $ 1.2 trillion in problem loans and it will take some $ 386 billion to recapitalize the banks. Although the IMF was apparently not much concerned with these developments, some foreign investors perhaps began to have doubts on the countries’ capacity to repay these loans, particularly as rising labour costs and a currency peg to the dollar on the one hand and a fall in demand for personal computers on the other were undermining their exports.
Flight of capital does not necessarily take place on rational grounds. Suspicion, rumour, gossip, remarks by politicians or bureaucrats in power or some other factor may cause some to lose confidence in currency or stock market. The feeling is infectious; speculators move by herd instinct; a precautionary action by a few often becomes a stampede by all and the inevitable happens - currency devaluation and stock market crash. It has happened before and it is likely to happen again. Now the danger is greater as many markets world over are integrated as never before by modern communications and information, and a disturbance in one country can soon spread to others.
IMF’s Austerity Package
When the crisis-stricken countries sought its help to overcome their currency crisis, the IMF’s stereotype prescription was to squeeze the domestic economy through higher interest rates, tight monetary and credit policy and spending cuts even when they had sound macro-economic fundamentals. In addition they were directed to liberalize, deregulate, and privatize further. These policies and measures according to the IMF were designed to restore foreign investor’s confidence, attract foreign capital and strengthen the currency but they have not only failed to achieve this objective (currencies are still depreciating) but have also caused an economic downturn. The currency depreciation and the collapse of stock and property markets increased the foreign debt servicing cost of banks and large firms, reduced the capacity of borrowers to repay loans, increased bad loans and impaired banks’ capacity to lend. Higher interest rates and restricted credit made matters more difficult to firms already hit by stock and currency markets. Firms went bankrupt and threw thousands out of their jobs; reduction of interest and consumption was reinforced by spending cuts to drive the economies to depression. The IMF remedy instead of curing the patient has nearly killed him. This is not surprising as it is reported that of the 89 nations under IMF care in 1965-95, 16 stagnated and 32 became poorer.While the deflationary policies imposed by the IMF have depressed investment and economic growth and increased unemployment and social instability, currency depreciation has failed to stimulate exports. East and South East Asia do a substantial part of their trade within the region, but as all the countries in the region are experiencing low growth and unemployment there is little demand for their exports. Further depreciation has not reduced export prices to the full extent as the import content of East Asia’s exports is high and depreciation has raised the cost of imported inputs. Export firms in addition are handicapped by restricted credit and high interest charges. In the absence of a domestic economic revival, and in the context of declining stock prices and unstable exchange rates foreign investors have not brought in new capital to the crisis stricken countries as expected by the IMF, although a number of indigenous firms in difficulties are being taken over by foreign firms.
Reaction against Liberalization
The failure of the IMF’s prescriptions to end the crisis and the degeneration of the currency crisis to an economic recession have resulted in a strong backlash against the IMF and a disillusionment with economic liberalization in most Asian countries. The main criticism of the IMF is that it wrongly diagnosed what was essentially a banking crisis as an economic crisis and instead of rescheduling banks’ foreign debt and helping banks with loans, it deflated the entire economy transfomming the banking crisis into a overall economic crisis, causing economic hardship and misery to millions of people: The World Bank and well known economists argued that what was required were measures to reflate/stimulate the economies - such as public spending and cheaper credit - for domestic business to revive, and maintain income and employment, but the IMF was doing the opposite by squeezing the economies with budget cuts, credit restriction and higher interest - to dampen business activity.It is paradoxical that while the IMF and the developed countries were pressurising Indonesia, South Korea and Thailand to deflate or contract their economies by tight fiscal and monetary policies, they were advising Japan - whose currency and stock prices were also falling - to do the opposite - to reflate or expand its economy by liberal fiscal and monetary policies. The application of double standards was deliberate. In the case of Japan they want to prevent the deepening of its recession lest it affects them and the whole world; in the case of Asian developing countries, their main concern appears to be ensuring the repayment of foreign loans and the takeover of indigenous firms which lack finance and bank credit by foreigners. The contraction of their economies by reducing imports (even if devaluation fails to promote exports) tends to create foreign exchange surpluses which can be used to repay foreign loans. The IMF appears to the Asians therefore as a watchdog for the foreign banks and foreign business. The objective of the IMF and the developed countries is achieved however at great costs to the countries concerned - fall in production, closure of business firms, unemployment, poverty, social unrest and transfer of property to foreign owners. To many it appears as if Asian societies are being destabilized for the sake of defending the free market.
The IMF seems to have realized to some extent the negative aspects of its reforms for it has recently relaxed the stringency of its austere measures which aggravated the Asian crisis. It has for example allowed lower interest rates, tax cuts and deficit spending to revive the economies, and restored food subsidies in Indonesia when riots broke out; permissible budget deficits were raised from 1 per cent to 3.5 per cent of GDP in Thailand and surprisingly to 8.5 per cent in Indonesia.
Capital Controls
The backlash against the IMF is accompanied by a reappraised of free markets, globalization and liberalization. It is as a result of liberalization that there is free movement of capital. The East and South East Asian economies opened their doors to foreign capital allowing it unrestricted entry and exit. Hedge funds poured their money to Asian stock markets in search of higher and quick profits and foreign banks lent liberally to Asian banks for the same reason ignoring risks. These foreign funds were instrumental in pushing stock markets up and financing a real estate boom. At the first sign of uncertainty they fled from these countries more rapidly than they had come in thereby destabilizing stock and real estate markets and precipitating devaluation. The IMF and the developed countries made no criticism of the developing countries for attracting such large amounts of speculative foreign capital; on the contrary they praised their policies. When speculative foreign capital fled these countries however the IMF and developed countries instead of blaming hedge funds and other foreign speculators, found fault with recipient countries for unsound macro-economic policies (which was not true) and cronyism (which country does not practice it?) which they never pointed out before the crisis.Asians have also noted that the only East Asian country which escaped the contagion effect of the Asian crisis is China, for the simple reason that it restricts all capital movements into and out of the country providing no opportunity to speculators to destabilize its economy. The Chinese currency - the renminbi - unlike other Asian currencies has maintained its external value unaltered. The IMF and the developed countries, paradoxically again, are praising China for maintaining the value of its currency by capital account controls while requesting other Asian countries to refrain from using such controls. Double standards again! They are grateful to China for its stable currency for they realise that if China were to devalue it will lead to a second round of devaluation of other Asian currencies and create more chaos all over the world. This is a covert acknowledgment of the usefulness of controls to check hot money movements.
Control over capital movements has not discouraged foreign investment in China. Strangely enough China is the developing country which has received the largest inflow of foreign direct investment in the world - $ 199 billion in 1990-97. China encourages foreign direct investment useful to the country and prevents speculative capital inflows which threaten the country’s stability. It is by such selective control that China has succeeded in attracting foreign direct investment and shutting out speculative hot money.
As the IMF remedies made things worse and the free market forces were only reinforcing the disruptive tendencies, Asian countries had no alternative but to take action to reverse liberalization. The Malaysian Prime Minister had for over one year accused international speculation of causing the Asian crisis and advocated consistently some form of international regulation of volatile capital movements to prevent them from destabilizing vulnerable developing economies. There was however no international action. It was in September that Malaysia imposed foreign exchange controls to insulate the economy from speculative capital and eased credit to revive the economy. Such action to control capital movements was supportive by many economists like Paul Krugman and measures to revive the economy were endorsed by the World Bank. Controls over capital movements have been imposed in Taiwan, Russia and Chile while Singapore is contemplating such measures. Al1 South Asian countries maintain capital account controls and this is the main reason why they were not much hurt by the Asian currency crisis. Further, even South Korea and Thailand had capital controls a few years back, until they were forced to remove them under IMF pressure.
It is also puzzling to the Asians and even others why speculative capital movements which cause so much of damage to developing countries, are not controlled and supervised by the UN or the IMF when world trade is subject to descipline under an international code implemented and monitored by the GATT/WTO. The monetary value of all types international capital movements is about 25 times that of international trade; yet it is not subject to any supervision. National goveenments are clearly too weak to regulate hedge funds and other bond traders which move hot money across the globe. Alan Greenspan the Chairman of the US Federal Reserve Board, in congressional testimony, confessed his inability to control them: "Given the amazing communication facilities available virtually around the globe, trades can be initiated from almost any location. Any direct US regulation restricting their flexibility will doubtless induce the more aggressive funds to emigrate from under our jurisdiction." If the most powerful financial regulator in the leading developed country admits his inability to control speculators, then they will continue to destabilize developing economies without any check. No country will be able to exercise economic sovereignty.
This is why the United Nations or the IMF should take the responsibility of regulating international capital movements as in the case of international trade. It is not only Mahathir Mohamed who has been advocating such control. The World Economic Forum in its Action Plan for Global Growth and Reform of the World Financial System has said G-7 economies should establish a new regime for monitoring, disclosure and regulation of highly leveraged short-term financial flows. Even George Soros, the very man who has been accused of destabilizing economies with his movements of "hot money", perhaps after he lost $ 2 billion in the Russian turmoil, stated: "I am advocating greater supervision and regulation of capital markets in general". He repeated this in an interview with the Asiaweek of October 23 1998: "But looking forward, I think that obviously the totally free flow of capital is not advisable, so you need to create some mechanism for introducing stability". The general consensus among developing countries is that a world without controls is a world without security - a world of anarchy.
State Intervention
The crisis has shattered the faith in globallization and the Washington Consensus that the free markets ensure the optimal allocation of resources and financial markets regulate themselves if they are free. Governments are turning away from laissez faire dogmas and IMF’s stereotype prescriptions and adopting pragmatic and interventionist policies. UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan recently wamed "Throughout the developing world, the awakening to globallizations’ downslide has been one of resistance and resignation, a feeling that globalization is a false god foisted on weaker states by the capitalist centers of the world".That the free market has failed to ensure an optimal allocation of capital in the world, that it has favoured a few and marginalised the majority is shown by the World Bank statistics that 95% of all foreign direct investment in developing countries went is just 26 countries in 1996 leaving the balance 5% to be shared by 140 countries. Free market has also failed to provide equal benefits from world trade expansion. The uneven distribution of benefits from trade is illustrated by the fact that 80 per cent of the total exports of developing countries are accounted for by just 15 countries. They are the countries that have benefited from globalization. Africa which consists of the poorest countries in the world saw its share of world investment and world trade falling from 1950. UNCTAD’s 1997 report shows that the income gaps between developed and developing countries have continued to widen under globalization. "In 1965 the average per capita income of the G7 countries was 20 times that of the world’s poorest seven countries. By 1995 it was 39 times as much".
While the market is indispensable for economic development, it has certain shortcomings to overcome which state intervention is required. First, perfect competition exists only in text books; the real world is one of imperfect competition of monopolies and oligopolies which exercise undue influence on the market. Twothirds of the world trade for example is conducted by transnational corporations, and one-third is intra-firm trade. Second unrestricted market forces damage the environment, ignore workers rights and health, and disregard consumer safety.
Continued tomorrow
Religion
Difference between the Dhamma and the Abhidhamma
by Bhikkhu Seelananda"Dhamma" is a multifaceted term. It can mean several things, the facts of life, the facts of nature, the way things happen. The Buddha revealed and expounded the Dhamma for the benefit of all in the world. That we call the Buddha Dhamma. It is the way of liberation for mankind. That was how he fulfilled his task for which he was born as a human being.
The scholars today, accept that the Abhidhamma is a later development of the Dhamma. Earlier there was only Dhamma Vinaya (Dhamma and Discipline). At the first council which was held three months after the demise of the Master, the Dhammavinaya was reharshed by the Arahants. The Abhidhamma was completed as a Pitaka with the compilation of the Kathavatthuppakarana at the end of the third Council held in the reign of the Emperor Asoka (274-237 B.C.)
But according to the Atthasalini (The Expositor), the commentary on the Dhammasangani, (Enumeration of phenomena), the Abhidhamma was preached by the Buddha himself to the gods of the heaven of Tavatimsa before his Mother. She had been reborn as a heavenly being in Tavatimsa. This great event, in keeping with this commentary, took place during the seventh three months rainy retreat after the establishment of the Sangha.
Vap Poya
The three months rainy retreat ends with the dawn of Vap Full Moon Day which falls in the month of October. This significant Poya day of Vap, marks the following event of the Sasana.1. Conclusion of the Buddha’s preaching of the Abhidamma in the heaven of Tavatimsa.
2. The recital of the Vinaya Pitaka, for the first time in Sri Lanka at Thuparama, presided over by Ven. Arahant Maha Arittha (the first Sri Lankan Bhikkhu).
3. On the instructions of the Arahant Mahinda Thera, King Devanampiyatissa sent envoys led by Arittha to request Emperor Asoka to send his daughter, Arahant Sangamitta Theri, to come to Sri Lanka in order to establish the Bhikkuni Order.
4. The conclusion of the rainy retreat (Vassana) and the commencement of the month of offering Kathina civara for the monks who observed retreat for three months.
The Dhamma
When we consider the above topic, first, let us examine what is the Dhamma. The Dhamma is made up of the profound teachings of the Buddha. After his Enlightenment the Buddha said "This Dhamma that I have attained is profound, hard to see, and hard to understand, peaceful and sublime, unattainable by mere reasoning, subtle, to be experienced by the wise. (M. N. Ariyapariyesana Sutta).The Buddha has reiterated on many occasions, that what he discovered and proclaimed should be thoroughly imbibed, and what he discovered are: "The four foundations of midfulness, the four right efforts, the four roads to power, the five spiritual faculties, the five mental powers, the seven factors of enlightenment, the Noble Eightfold Path". (D. M. Maha Pirinibbana Sutta).
Once, the Buddha, addressing Ven. Sariputta said, "Sariputta, I may preach the Dhamma in brief, Sariputta I may preach the Dhamma in detail, Sariputta, I may preach the Dhamma both in belief and in detail. It is those who understand that are hard to find". (A. N. Tika Nipata, Devaduta Vagga, Sutta No. 03).
On another occasion the Buddha said, "Now, monks, this Dhamma taught by me is unrefuted, untarnished, unblamed, uncensored by intelligent ascetics and Brahmins. And what is that Dhamma? They are the six elements, six fields of sense-impression, the eighteen mental approaches, and the four Noble Truths". According to this statement of the Anguttara Nikaya (1.30 Sutta, P. 45 BPS), it is very clear as to what he taught as the Dhamma. In explanation, the six elements are: earth, water, heat, air, space, and consciousness. The six fields of sense-impression are: the field of sense-impression by eye, ear, tongue, body, and mind. The eighteen mental approaches are: Seeing a visual object with the eye, and approaching it either for gladness, for sadness or for indifference. Similarly the process being repeated for the six senses giving us eighteen mental approaches. The Noble Truths are: Suffering, the cause of suffering, cessation and the path leading to the cessation of suffering.
In Buddhism, sometimes, the Dhamma is referred to also as the way of things, Law, and Dependent Origination, — Paticcasamuppada-which is known as Idappaccayata, Dhammatthitata, and Dhammaniyamata. In short, the Dhamma taught by the Buddha can be summarised as 37 requisites of Enlightenment (sattatimsati Bodhipakkhiya Dhamma).
The Abhidhamma
Once, the Professor of Buddhist Philosophy, W. S. Karunaratna said that especially among the Theravada Buddhists, the Abhidhamma is venerated as the finest flower of Buddhist Philosophy. In the Abhidhama there are no names, stories, parables, and dialogues. It is just like a book of science. There are elements, consciousness and states of consciousness etc. The Ven. Nyanatiloka in his work "Guide through th Abhidhamma Pitika" clearly said "The Abhidhamma is not a tale told to fools. The Abhidhamma does not mention mudfish, here we find no gods, no men, no devils, no trees, no chairs, no stones and so forth".From these two definitions we can understand what Abhidhamma is. In Abhidhamma, as one of the three baskets (Tripitaka), there are seven books, namely:
1. Enumeration of Phenomena (Dhammasangani)
2. The Analysis (Vibhanga)
3. Discourses on elements (Dhatukatha)
4. Description of individuals (Puggalapannatti)
5. Book of pairs (Yamaka)
6. Conditional Relations (Patthana)
7. Points of contraversy (Kathavatthu)
According to the Abhidhamma Pitaka there are two realities
1. Apparent Reality (sammuti sacca)
2. Absolute Reality (Paramattha sacca)
Both these, are very significant for the realisation of Nibbana. Certainly, the Abhidhamma is a vast store of knowledge. It is not confied to Theravada Buddhism. There are Abhidhamma Texts in Mahayana Buddhism too. As Bhikkhu Bodhi says "The Abhidhamma Pitaka is held in the highest esteem, revered as crown jewel of the Buddhist Scripture". (A comprehensive Manual of Abhidhamma P.2) In short, as Mrs. Rhys Davids said", Abhidhamma deals with what we find within us, around us and of what we aspire to find". Thus the Dhamma taught by the Buddha is conventional Teaching (sappariayayadesana) and the Abhidhamma is ultimate Teaching (nippariyayadesana).
Today in Sri Lanka the majority are Buddhist by birth, not through familiarisation with the Discourses or by practising the Dhamma taught by the Buddha. Most of our people are well-versed in Buddhist culture, civilization, and Buddhist mythology. We are responsible if from generation to generation our children are taught not really what the Buddha said - I mean not the core of Buddhism-but Buddhist culture, civilization and Buddhist Literature. - the bark of the tree-so that, sad to say, most of our people cannot appreciate the real teachings of the Master. They teach and preach not what the Buddha said. What the Buddha said is not out-dated. It is still eternal truth and can be put into practice in our daily life. The wise one ever delights in the Dhamma made known by the Noble One (ariyappavedite dhamme sada ramati panditho).
The essntial Discourses expounded by the Buddha are in the Four Nikayas, namely; The Dialogues of the Buddha (Digha Nikaya), Middle length Sayings (Majjhima Nikaya), Kindred Sayings (Samyutta Nikaya) and Gradual Sayings (Anguttara Nikaya).
Each and every Buddhist must read at least a few of these Discourses of the Buddha and strive to understand what he really said. Then only can one be a real Buddhist, a practising Buddhist. His teaching is a way of life. It is to be practised in our daily life and experienced. There is nothing to be postponed for a later date. The most important moment is the present moment in one’s life, revealed by the Buddha. Therefore we must strive to be mindful and wise in this present moment. When one is mindful and wise one can realise the three characteristics of existence in the World. Nibbana itself can be realised right now by the wise. Let’s apply Buddhism to our daily life. Be practising Buddhists.
An analytical view
Muhammad’s prophethood
by DR. JAMAL A. BADAWI
Professor of Business Management
St. Mary’s University, Halitex, CanadaA great deal has been said about the prophet of Islam by Muslims and non-Muslims alike. What has been said, however, has been largely coloured by the writer’s preconditioning; whether he is a believer in or a critic of Islam.
For Muslims, the question of Muhammad’s true prophethood is indisputable. They firmly believe that he is a true prophet and Messenger of God, through whom God’s divine revelations throughout history were culminated and perfected, thus forming the universal divine message to mankind. For critics of Islam, generally, it is Muhammad (P), rather than God, who is the founder of Islam, the author of its teachings, and the composer of its holy book, the Qur’an. How could a sincere and "neutral" researcher examine both claims and arrive at his own conclusions?
It is suggested that the search for an answer to this question may be facilitated if one simple rule of objective research is observed. The researcher should try to rid himself of the predominance of emotions, prejudices and preconceptions. This is a demanding requirement of the believer, the critic, and the neutral researcher as well. It is demanding because no man can free himself completely of emotions, prejudices, and preconceptions. Yet, an honest researcher could still try his best before any objective and fair assessment of any issue can be reached.
This paper is a humble attempt in this direction. It brings into focus some of the main issues which relate to the question of Muhammad’s Prophethood, analyse them, and explore the conclusions to which such analysis may lead. The approach which is followed throughout the paper is hopefully, a rational one; one that does not start off with either an unquestioned acceptance of Muhammad’s Prophethood, or with a prejudicial rejection of the same.
Since it was the critics of Muhammad (P) who took the lead in raising questions and doubts about his prophethood, a brief word about the changing nature of their critique may be enlightening.
II. CHANGING ATTITUDES OF MUHAMMAD’S CRITICS.
One simplified way of classifying their critique is to divide it into three slightly overlapping stages:1) The Polemic Era. Writers in this group seem to have been motivated by religious prejudices. Their approach did not reflect an honest spirit of enquiry, perhaps because their writings were intended, at least partially, to arouse the feeling of hatred and fury against Muslims. This feeling succeeded in generating a poisonous atmosphere which was exploited to satisfy the needs and aspirations of the secular and/or religious establishments. The crusades against Muslims were perhaps one implication of this attitude. With these mudslinging tendencies, there was hardly any indecent character that was not attributed to Islam and the Prophet of Islam. With feverish and fanatical hatred, no room was left for fact finding, open-mindedness, or even logic. As such, the ends justified the means; distortions, misrepresentations, halftruths, and at times sheer fabrications were freely used.
2) Disguised Polemic: As the polemic era lost its momentum, a more careful and disguised Polemic was introduced. Writers in this group criticized their predecessors as extremists, refrained from indecent and open attacks on Islam and Muhammad (P). Yet, their motives were not significantly different from their predecessors’. Most of them apparently realized that due to the forces of history, the masses became more educated, at least to the extent of ruling out sheer fabrications as effective offensive weapons against Islam. Their approach, however, still reflected an earnest endeavour to develop more effective weapons to destroy Islam or at least to belittle it. It is not a coincidence that such motives were often connected with the writers’ colonial and/or missionary affiliation and orientation.
3) The Inevitable Inconsistency: A more tolerant yet perplexing attitude then came into being. Some writers began even to give credit to Islam as a powerful and viable ideology and to Muhammad (P) as a man with positive and moral qualities. His sincerity, sacrifices, and the instrumental role he played in bringing about spiritual, moral, and material upliftment to humanity were all admitted. One thing, however, was not admitted as readily: Was Muhammad (P) a true prophet who received divine revelation from God, and was the Qurtan really a divine book or was it of Muhammad’s own making?
No matter how courteous, mild, or apparently objective these writers may seem to be, a serious question of consistency would inevitably arise here: How consistent is it to admit the sincerity and high moral characters of Muhammad (P), while implying that he was not truthful when he claimed to be a prophet of God, or when he claimed that the Qurtan was not of his own, making, or when he claimed that he did not derive his teachings from any human source? It is this latter question that will be explored in some detail in this paper. To do this exploration, however, it would be helpful to clarify the methodology that will be followed.
III. A PROPOSED METHODOLOGY
In an honest pursuit of an answer to the above question, it is logical to start off by finding out what was Muhammad’s claim. Having done this, it would be fair to evaluate and discuss such a claim without accepting it or rejecting if offhand. Such an acceptance of or rejection of Muhammad’s truthfulness should only follow the analysis and over-all evaluation of the salient arguments, facts, and questions pertaining to the issue.THE CLAIM
Reference to the Qur’an, to the sayings of Muhammad (P), and to historical material, consistently indicate that Muhammad (P) claimed to be God’s Prophet and Messenger to mankind, that the Qur’an was not of his own making, and that what he preached (Islam) was divinely and not humanly inspired.THE CRITIQUE
In evaluating the above claim, there seem to be two possibilities; first, that this claim was a truthful one; second, that this claim was not a truthful one, i.e., a fabrication. If the first possibility is accepted, whether by faith or by reason or by combination there-of, then the question of Muhammad’s true prophethood is settled. If, however, the second possibility is still open, how could it be objectively verified or refuted?Only Two Possibilities: It is important to emphasize at this point that Muhammad’s claim of prophethood is subject to only two possibilities; truthfulness or fabrication. It may be contended that many critics of Islam do not use the term fabrication to refer to Muhammad’s claim of prophethood. It may be added also that they talk and write about Muhammad (P) with considerable respect and admiration (like many other great men and heros!) Is the mere fact that they say or imply that Muhammad (P) was a great social reformer and a remarkable composer of an influential book, the Qurtan — is this sufficient to infer that they do in fact accuse Muhammad (P) of not being a truthful man, i.e., that they impute dishonesty on him?
Without "beating around the bush", it should be said, in all candidness that is doesn’t matter how "nicely". "diplomatically", or "courteously" are the ideas stated. What really matters are the logical implications of these statements. If an apparently fair and objective writer does not dispute the fact that Muhammad (P) did claim that what he taught was neither of his own making nor was it derived from any human source, and if the same writer says or implies later on that Muhammad (P) was the Composer or Compiler of the Qur’an, then what he is really saying is that Muhammad (P) was not truthful (or sane) when he claimed the divine origin of Islam. This questioning of Muhammad’s personal integrity and truthfulness can still be done in the most "nice", "courteous", yet misleading manner. It is this courteous inconsistency, and in some cases hypocrisy that is likely to mislead the reader, Muslim and non-Muslim alike. "Diplomacy" or "Public Relations" type of statements are no substitute for candid, objective, and rigorous research in an important subject as the present one.
But Why Fabricate? If the researcher was to avoid the above "courteous inconsistency", he would then assume either of the two possibilities (truthfulness or dishonesty) and seek all evidence that may verify or refute his assumption. Since these two possibilities are contrary to each other, it makes a little difference which one may be assumed to initiate the analysis. For the convenience of presentation it may be useful to see if the assumption of possible fabrication can be substantiated.
If it were true that Muhammad’s claim of prophethood was a mere fabrication, then two sub-possibilities may present themselves; a) that the might have fabricated this claim deliberately and knowingly, or b) that he might have done so unconsciously.
IV. CONSCIOUS FABRICATION?
Deliberate fabrication, like other patterns of human behaviour is likely to have a goal; the satisfaction of certain human needs. Arrogation of prophethood may thus be motivated either by some material benefit or by the aspiration to status, glory and power. We may as well look into these two possibilities.A) Fabrication for Material Gains?
It is reasonable to assert that Muhammad (P) might have claimed prophethood in order to attain some material gains? This question may ne answered by looking into his financial status before and after prophethood. Before his mission as a Prophet Muhammad (P) had no financial worries. His loving and rish wife, Khadija, has had made available to him all what he needed. As a successful and reputed merchant, Muhammad (P) drew a satisfactory and comfortable income. It is ironic that the same man, after his mission as a prophet and because of it, became worse off materially.Describing their life, his wife, Aa’Isha narrated that a month or two might have elapsed before fire was lit in the prophet’s house (to cook a meal), while the household subsisted on milk and dates. After eighteen years of his mission, when Muslims were the victorious, we still find a kind of revolt in Muhammad’s household in protest of the difficult life characterized by a considerable self-imposed material deprivation. This incident took place at the time when the Muslim treasury was under his disposal. Asked about Muhammad’s bedding, Hafsah answered, "It comprised of a piece of canvas which I spread double folded under him. Once I did it fourfold in an effort to make it more comfortable. The next morning he asked me: ‘What did you spread under me last night’. I replied: ‘The same canvas, but I had fourfolded it instead of the customary double fold’. He said: ‘Keep it as it was before. The additional softness stands in the way of Tahajjud (night prayer)’’’. When Omar IbnKhattab went to see Muhammad (P) he noticed that "the contents of his room comprised of only three pieces of tanned skin and a handful of barley lying in a corner. I looked about but I failed to find anything else. I began to weep. He said: "Why are you weeping?" I replied: ‘O Prophet of Allah’ why should I not weep? I can see the mat’s pattern imprinted on your body and I am also beholding all that you have got in this room. O Prophet of Allah! Pray that Allah may grant ample provisions for us. The Persians and the Romans who have no true faith and who worship not Allah but their kings - the Kaisers and the Caesars - should live in gardens with streams running in their midst but the chosen Prophet and the accepted slave of Allah should live in such a dire poverty!’ The Prophet (P) was resting against his pillow, but when he heard me talk like this, he sat against his pillow and said, ‘O, Omar! Are you still in doubt about this matter’? Ease and comfort in the hereafter are much better than ease and comfort in this world." In a long narrative by Bilal about what Muhammad (P) did with the gifts and provisions he received, Bilal reported that the Prophet never kept back anything for future use, that he spent what he had on the poor and needy, and that on one occasion Muhammad received a gift of four loaded camels, yet he took nothing for himself and he further insisted that he would not go home until the whole lot is given away to the needy.
At the time of his death, and in spite of all his victories and achievements, Muhammad (P) was in debt, and his shield was in the hands of a Jewish citizen of Madina as a collateral for that debt!
One may then inquire: Are there any indications of materialistic motives behind Muhammad’s claim of prophethood?
B) Fabrication for Worldly Glory and Power?
Is it possible that Muhammad (P) might have claimed prophethood in order to attain status, worldly greatness, and power? The desire to enjoy status and power is usually associated with good food, fancy clothing, monumental palaces, colourful guards, and the indisputable authority.
Do any of these indicators apply of Muhammad (P)? Following are a few glimpses of his life that may help answer this question.
Despite of his responsibilities as a prophet, a teacher, a statesman, and a Judge, Muhammad (P) used to milk his goat, mend his clothes, repair his shoes and help with the household work. His life was an amazing model of simplicity and humbleness. He sat on the floor, went to the market to shop with no guards or procession; he talked and listen patiently and politely to anyone who stopped him, and he accepted invitations to dine with the poor and ate graciously whatever was served to him. Once he was travelling with some of his companions who began to prepare to cook some food by dividing the work among themselves. Muhammad (P) suggested to be in charge of collecting some wood. His companions told him that they could do it for him. Muhammad (P) answered back, "I know you could do it for me but I hate to have any privilege over you’’. A stranger once came to him almost trembling out of respect. Muhammad (P) asked the man to come closer to him and with a compassionate pat on the man’s shoulder, he told him: "Relax brother, I am only the son of a woman who used to eat dried bread".
Muhammad’s use of authority is quite revealing. His followers loved him, respected him, and trusted him to an amazing extent. Yet, he continued to emphasize that obedience and devotion should be directed to God and not to him personally. As a matter of fact, he made a clear distinction between the specific revelations he received from God and other areas left to human discretion. In the latter category, evidence of Muhammad’s consultative attitudes is ample. In planning for the defense of Madinah (before the battle of the Trench), Muhammad (P) asked for the advice of his companions and decided in favour of Salman’s proposal to dig a trench around Madinah. Furthermore, he started working with his hands like any other man in his company. A similar behaviour was demonstrated in the battle of Badr.
In addition to the simple, humble, and altruistic life of Muhammad (P) one may also ask: Was there any indication in his early life that demonstrates his aspiration for leadership and fame? Critics of Muhammad (P) fail to provide an evidence that he planned or aspired to leadership end fame. Even a writer who goes into a great length to support his guess that Muhammad (P) probably had some "secret desires" to be famous cannot help but admit that Muhammed (P) was not guilty of planning for his role as a prophet. Not only was Muhammad (P) an ordinary and a quiet, person, but he even trembled and rushed home in terror when he received the first revelation as a prophet of God. If he were planning or aspiring for fame, he would have come down happy and jubilant that his "secret desires" are finally coming true.
Andrae’s theory of "secret desires" and similar theories are perhaps modern versions of the pagan Arabs’ initial interpretation of Muhammad’s motives. Long before there was any prospect of success of the new faith and at the outset of a long and painful era of torture, suffering, and persecution of Muhammad (P) and his followers, he received an interesting offer. An envoy of the pagan leaders, Okba, came to him saying".... if you want money, we will collect enough money for you so that you will be the richest one of us. If you want leadership we will take you as our leader and and never decide on any matter without your approval. If you want kingship we will crown you king over us. And if you can’t resist the visions that come to you we will spend all that is needed to seek a cure for youÉ" Only one concession was required from Muhammad (P) in return for that, to stop "dividing the people" and to give up this new claim that there is not God but the One Universal God of all. This was not a high price if Muhammad (P) were pursuing his own benefit. Was Muhammad (P) hesitant when the offer was made? Did he turn it down as a bargaining strategy leaving the door open for a better offer The following was his answer:
"In the Name of God, Most Gracious, Most Merciful. Ha-Meem. A revelation from (God), Most Gracious, Most Merciful; A Book whereof the verses are explained in detail; A Qur’an in Arabic, for people who understand. Giving good news and admonition: Yet most of them turn away and so they hear not".
In another occasion and in response to his uncle’s plea for compromise, Muhammad’s answer was as decisive and sincere, "I swear by the name of God, O Uncle!, that if they place the sun in my right-hand and the moon in my left-hand in return for giving up this matter (Islam), I will never desist until either God makes it triumph or I would perish defending it"
History tells us that not only did Muhammad (P) and and his few followers suffer all kinds of torture and sacrifice for thirteen years, but that Muhammad (P) was about to physically perish several times because of his steadfeastness.
Are these the characteristics of a power-hungry or a self-centered man? What could justify such a life of suffering and sacrifice, even after he was fully triumphant over his adversaries? What could explain the humbleness and nobility which he demonstrated in his most glorious moments when he insisted that success is due only to God’s help and not to his own genius?
V. UNCONSCIOUS FABRICATION?
So far, an impartial researcher would fail to find any ground to doubt Muhammad’s truthfulness. Ironically, some orientalists and missionaries agree with this result. Yet, through "diplomacy", romanticism, and possibly deception, they continue to search for new ways of denying the divine origin of Islam and of attributing the Qur’an to Muhammad’s own thinking.Some claim that - under the influence of repeated "visions’’ and with his disenchantment with idolworship, Muhammad (P), because of his pure and upright nature, gradually convinced himself that he was the reformer or savior of his people! What is overlooked in this type of theories is that Muhammad’s claim of prophethood was continuously and consistently made throughout the full twenty-three years of his mission, and that it was not something that gradually developed or felt. It was rather a claim that came up unexpectedly at the age of forty.
What kind of a person is he who "convinces himself" for twenty-three years that his fabricated claim of receiving revelation from God is only an outcome of his sincere desire to help his people’? A person like this would have to be notoriously dishonest or notoriously sick mentally. As it became too difficult to show objectively any proof of dishonesty, fishing in the troubled waters continued by seeking explanation in epilepsy.
EPILEPSY?:
It was contended, and still is, perhaps to a lesser extent, that Muhammad (P) was a sincere but epileptic person who, during his epileptic seizures recited what became later on the Qur’an.What is overlooked in this argument is that during the epileptic seizure, the functioning of the brain is disturbed. As such, sensible speech is not possible since the patient usually mumbles confusing words which he forgets after he is recovered. From all available accounts on Muhammad’s life, we consistently find a man with excellent physical and mental health throughout his life, a man who never had epileptic seizures, or the "falling-down" disease that was known to his contemporaries, and a man who faced many critical moments in his life without collapsing, even once, under tension or strain, no matter how great.
Are these the characteristics of an epileptic man? How could his followers including the most wise and intelligent, believe in him rather than seek a cure for him? Did the believers in this "epilepsy" school of thought bother to open the Qur’an, read it, and see if it looks like a product of epileptic convulsive seizures?
THE LOGICAL CONCLUSION:
If no reasonable argument can be made to support the imputation of dishonesty and fabrication on Muhammad (P), and if the implicit assumption of fabrication, while seeking psychological explanations for his claim, is only self-contradictory, what other reasons may justify the denial of the divine origin of his message, or to doubt his truthfulness?
