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Hard year ahead

This issue of the Sunday island will be the last for this year. By the time next Sunday comes round, 1998 would have come to a close and we would have entered the last year of the present century. For astrologers no less than historians, the new millennium would have its significance for reasons of planetary influences on the affairs of mankind as well as for the historical milestone it would mark. But ordinary mortals will be concerned with less esoteric things and for us here in Sri Lanka, the most important question will be whether the elusive peace can at last be won so that the nation can buckle down to the demanding task or realising the country's undoubted potential and securing a better life for all its people.

1998 was not a good year in terms of ending the war and healing the wounds of the nation. The politicians seem to have at last learned the folly of setting deadlines for ending the fighting that has already gone on much longer than is good for anybody and making stupid statements like 96% of the war being over. Prabhakaran's Hero's Day speech as well as the wide-ranging interview granted by President Kumaratunga to Frontline, the Indian news magazine, taken together would have given most discerning people a clear indication that a negotiated solution is not likely in the short term. That is a reality that we will have to live with in a new year.

The signs are that 1999 is not going to be good in economic terms. Ours is still a largely agricultural economy and the weather gods will largely determine the state of the crops. Whether the rains will come in due season and bless the land and what grows on it next year remains to be seen. But the projections for tea and rubber prices particularly are not as sunny as we would have wished them to be. While tea did well in the first half of this year and the estates could cope with the substantial wage increase granted to plantation workers with effect from January, the picture is now changing. Hopefully, the industry will remain viable even if the boom conditions of the recent past are no more. But all indications are that the going will be rough.

Although Sri Lanka did relatively well handling the backlash of the East Asian crisis in 1998 and the politicians and their publicists fell over each other to claim the credit for sound economic management, the signs are that we may well suffer an after shock in the coming new year. Most analysts believe that 1999 is going to be an economically difficult year for the country. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) which not so long ago was very upbeat about the country's economic prospects in the short term has not been very happy with the 1999 budget. The IMF's resident representative in Colombo, Anton Op de Beke is on record saying that overruns in defence expenditure together with falling revenues have affected the budget. He has also seen the revenue estimates as over-optimistic.

All this suggests that we are heading for a difficult year and it is best if we accept this reality instead of allowing our leaders to paint their accustomed pie-in-the-sky pictures. The Wayamba Provincial Council election has been scheduled for January 25 and already the first signs of the expected violence have been demonstrated. A victory is important for both the PA and the UNP and all indications are that this will be a no-holds-barred battle. That is not what the country wants or needs at this time. The sudden transfer of the Deputy Inspector General of Police (DIG) in charge of the province and several other senior policemen in the area will not give the public the impression that the government is determined to ensure that the election is going to be free and fair. It obviously wishes to profit from the handicap of incumbency.

Just because a policeman has served in the security detail of a former president, it does not mean that he is incapable of evenly holding the balance between the contenders. If considerations like that are brought into play, it will be very difficult to find senior police officers who will have to secure a number of provincial council elections within a couple of months of this one. Those elections that should have been held in August are now overdue and they are likely to be called in the next couple of months. Indeed, there are those who believe that bigger fish than provincial councils will be fried in the coming months. It is not outside the bounds of possibility that President Kumaratunga, who indicated a willingness to fight a premature presidential election last November, may well consider tossing her hat into the ring if the people of a province currently held by the UNP votes in favour of the PA at the upcoming election.

Let us conclude this comment by wishing our readers and the people of this country a happy and prosperous new year. They deserve better than they have had for several years with especially the people of the war-torn districts undergoing immense suffering. It is important that the more fortunate among us count our blessings and also be willing to make sacrifices in the interest of those of our countrymen in the frontlines of the war and those living in areas where it is being fought.

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