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Beware the terrorists in January

By our Defence Correspondent
As 1998 comes to a close, Sri Lanka’s security forces look back on a breather from major battles with the LTTE for three months. The last major clash was on September 27, when the Tigers overran Kilinochchi, killing 978 soldiers.

That attack ended the ill fated Operation Jaya Sikuru with the army realizing the folly of blindly pushing up the road to Jaffna. But as the new year dawns, there is an urgent need for the armed forces to hit the LTTE hard somewhere in the north.

Historically, the Tigers have used the lull afforded by the northeast monsoon from November to mid January, to regroup, plan new attacks, and strike at an army camp when the rains end.

This is also the time when the LTTE attacks outside the north and east, most frequently in Colombo. As we show below, January has not been a kind month for the armed forces.

But the Tigers do not stop with attacks in January. During most years, they have staged a string of attacks in the northeast and Colombo, which have run through February, March, and even April.

Among the most glaring examples of Tiger terror attacks in January were: The bombing of the Central Bank in Colombo on January 31, 1996, which wrecked the country’s economy, by destroying the Fort area, killing 88 people and wounding more than 1,400.

The Dalada Maligawa bombing this year, which wrecked Sri Lanka’s planned golden jubilee independence celebration;

The massive attack on Paranthan army camp on January 9, 1997 in which 223 soldiers and 350 Tiger cadres were killed.

The overrunning of Kanugahawewa police post in Anuradhapura district on Jan. 18, 1997, killing 21 policemen.

The killing of ten civilians by exploding a bomb in a bus in Anuradhapura on Jan. 18, 1994. The massacre of 20 Muslim civilians in the Ampara district on Jan. 23, 1991. The only recent years when there were no major attacks in January were in 1995, when the peace talks and cease fire were on, and in 1992.

Examples of major attacks in February, March and April are: The air force headquarters bomb in February of this year. The Maradana bus bomb in March of this year.

The unsuccessful seaborne assault on Colombo harbor on April 12, 1996, damaging three cargo ships.

The assassination of State Minister for Defence Ranjan Wijeratne by blowing up his car in Colombo on March 2, 1991.

Exploding bombs at five hotels in Colombo on April 9, 1994, wounding three people.

Shooting down two Avro transport planes over Jaffna on April 28 and 29, 1995, killing 87 military personnel an three journalists.

The overrunning of Sungawila police post in the Polonnaruwa district on Feb. 10, 1997, killing 16 policemen.

The blowing up of a Y-12 reconnaissance plane on the ground at China Bay Air Force Base near Trincomalee on March 6, 1997.

The attack on Vavunativu army camp in Batticaloa district on March 6, 197, killing 65 soldiers.

The killing of 15 soldiers in the ambush of an army patrol at Pulmoddai in the Trincomalee area on March 25, 1996.

The ambush of a Special Task Force patrol at Pulukunawa in Ampara district, on April 5, 1996, killing 18 STF personnel.

The attack on Vellaveli police post in the Batticaloa area on March 11, 1996, killing 23 policemen.

The ambush of an army patrol near Vantharamoolai in Batticaloa on March 23, 1996, killing 40 soldiers.

The killing of 47 soldiers in an ambush near Mannar on Feb. 17, 1991.

A bus bomb in Ampara which killed 25 civilians on April 10, 1992.

A car bomb which killed 11 civilians near Colombo on April 10, 1992.

The massacre of 56 Muslim villagers in the Polonnaruwa district on April 29, 1992.

Overrunning Kaddumuruvikulam army camp on April 23, 1995, killing 28 soldiers.

The attacks have not been confined to land by any means. Examples of Sea Tiger attacks in the early months include an unsuccessful attack on a navy convoy off Mullaittivu on March 24, 1997; the sinking of a Dvora gunboat off Vettilaikerni on March 30, 1996; >the sinking of a navy Dvora off the Jaffna coast with mines on Feb. 5, 1992; >blowing up two gunboats in Trincomalee harbor on April 19, 1995.

Little can be done about terror attacks in Colombo, that has not already been done by the various security arms, including the National Intelligence Bureau, the Crime Detective Bureau,

The Criminal Investigations Department, The Terrorism Investigations Department, Military Intelligence, local police stations, and the soldiers manning checkpoints and conducting neighborhood searches. Increased vigilance is the key.

But in the north, there is a way to prevent attacks, namely, to strike hard before the Tigers attack, and kill as many cadres as possible.

This would deplete LTTE resources and cadres, and force the scrapping of any major attack. Such action must necessarily be in the north, where the LTTE is concentrated, and not the east, which is of secondary importance.

Similarly, the Sea Tigers need to be hit hard when the winds off the coast die down. Otherwise, the Sea Tigers will strike first, at a convoy, or a harbor like Kankesanthurai, Trincomalee, or Karainagar.

1998 was not a particularly impressive year for either side.

The armed forces gained on the ground, advancing at a snail’s pace up the Jaffna road. A change in strategy in early December, saw troops move into the eastern side of the Wanni, on the Mullaittivu road, which shows much promise at the moment.

Jaffna remained under the army’s control, with LTTE infiltrators trying their best to disrupt life. Elections there were meant to hand over government to the Tamil political parties, but the Tiger threat prevented this.

The merciless killings of two mayors of Jaffna underlined this. Yet, there is no serious threat to Jaffna, as long as the forces advance in the Wanni.

There were no significant battlefield gains for the LTTE, except in preventing the army from capturing the entire Jaffna road. The terror bombings in Colombo and Kandy only served to alienate them internationally, and bans by several major nations against them grew stronger than ever.

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