On the Fast Track: Be Prepared

To comment on the Indo-Lanka Agreement which was signed by President Kumaratunga and Indian Prime Minister Mr. Atal Behari Vajpayee before the lists of the exports agreed upon, the timings and expectations etc. are released and the economists have pronounced their verdicts would not be fair. But between economics and politics there is only a thin dividing line and it could be that there are political agendas attached to the Indo-Lanka Agreement.

The declared objective of the Indo-Lanka Fast Track Agreement, is to reduce the huge trade deficit that exists between the countries. Since Indepedence such huge deficits did exist and it was certainly no concern of India and although we too should have been concerned, we did very little about it other than merely to refer to it on certain occasions. The Sri Lankan public was made aware of this agreement only when 'The Island' correspondent in New Delhi broke the story and we commented editorially on it. Renowned economist Dr. J. B Kelegama's article sent alarm bells ringing in the financial establishments and the holy-of-holies in politics and we are told that it did result in some degree of rethinking. Nonetheless, the agreement has been signed and we have to await fruition of the agreement in terms of the export lists.

A former Sri Lankan Ambassador and former Additional Secretary of the Foreign Ministry Mr. Nanda Godage in an article published in The Island yesterday touched upon some possible political implications. He raised the question of the secrecy in which the agreement was reached and also pointed out that the Foreign Ministry which should have played a key role in drafting the agreement had been left out in the first round when the basics of the agreement were decided on. The ministries of Finance and Industries too were kept out and only Mr. Lal Jayawardena,presidential advisor and a former Central Bank economist who had presented a paper on similar lines on Indo- Lanka trade when he headed the WIDER institution of the United Nations University had led the Sri Lankan negotiating team.

There is whispering in political and diplomatic circles that earlier President Kumaratunga's visit was not classified as a state visit by the Indian government and questions are being asked why it was upgraded suddenly. Our president was to go only on an unofficial visit only to open the Pligrims Rest center in New Delhi, it is said

Mr. Godage in his article is generous enough to speculate that this Fast Track Trade Agreement that overtakes other agreements such as SAPTA and SAFTA which SAARC countries have been struggling to get through, is a projection of the foreign policy of the BJP government. He points out that Indian Foreign Minister, Mr. Jaswant Singh had stated that India would give precedence to 'economic diplomacy'. Indeed, economic diplomacy is what even the western powers are pushing through with vigour now, their ambassadors now playing the role of salesmen to their mighty industrial establishments. India has already signed such two 'fast track' agreements with Nepal and Bhutan. This begs the question why India does not seek to reach such free trade fast track agreements with countries like China or Iran and ASEAN group which are of much greater economic potential.

All this has led to speculation in Colombo's political and diplomatic circles whether there is a hidden agenda tied to this agreement. A hypothesis put forward by some reputed bureaucrats and diplomats is that there is a political quid pro quo between India and Sri Lanka. The Chandrika Kumaratunga government, it is said, is on its penultimate lap of its term of office and has to pull a rabbit out of its hat if it is to return to power. That rabbit has to be a victory against the LTTE and the only country that could bring about that is India. Indian troops need not be physically present here but with its intelligence agencies, satellite information, surveillance of the seas, provision of vital military and hi-tech hardware could be decisive in the attempt to smoke out the terrorists leaders, it is said.

The quid-pro-quo for India is the fast track trade agreement, which it is claimed, will let India have a firm grip on Sri Lanka's economy. 1987 proved that the physical presence of Indian troops nor political agreements can bind Sri Lanka but an economic agreement that binds the Sri Lankan economy will bind the uppity Sri Lankans hand and foot, it is claimed.Some Sri Lankans may even go along with such an outcome while others will oppose.

All this is a hypothesis and such thinking is not surprising given the depths to which relations between the two countries has sunk on certain occasions. It could turn out to be an agreement with no political strings attached where India acts for the well being of her smaller neighbours.

But nothing will be lost if we adopt the Boy Scouts motto: Be Prepared