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LTTE fears army thrust on Mullaittivu

By our Defence Correspondent
The LTTE is bracing for a posible militay operation aimed at gaining ground towards Mullaittivu, and has begun building a line of defenses between Oddusudan and Mullaittivu, sources in the Wanni said.

These preparations come as the northeast monsoon rains die down slowly, after creating havoc in the north for nearly two months.

The rains, which began in early December, displaced nearly 20,000 people in the Trincomalee, Mannar, Mullaittivu and Kilinochchi districts.

The monsoon was also the reason for the ceasing of military operations since December 2, when the army captured Oddusudan, only 15 kilometers from Mullaittivu.

However, the Tigers’ plans to launch a counterattack before the army resumed the advance, were dealt a heavy blow when navy gunboats last week destroyed a convoy carrying supplies to Mullaittivu.

The LTTEâs Voice of the Tigers this week admitted the death of their Batticaloa political leader, Lt. Col. Keethan, but said he died of illness, although he was clearly killed in battle, as we reported in this column (Jan. 16: Navy destroys Sea Tigersâ most powerful warship, kills Batticaloa area leader.)

Hence the LTTE has been pushed on to the defensive, and Wanni sources say that the construction of lines of barbed wire and bunkers, and the laying of minefields, is going on in earnest just beyond Oddusudan. Civilians living in these areas have already fled on the orders of the Tigers.

Matters are rather complicated for the LTTE, since there are several roads leading to Mullaittivu, and they would find it difficult to defend all of them.

The main road is straight from Oddusudan to Mullaittivu, through Kulumurippu, a village that has now been abandoned.

Another smaller road stretches along the south side of the main road, linking army-held Nedunkerni with Mullaittivu, through the villages of Tanduvan and Kodalikallu. Several dirt tracks connect the two roads, so the army advance could swing from one to the other very quickly.

Unlike the illusory Main Supply Route (MSR) that the army has been trying to carve out to Jaffna, the town of Mullaittivu is of great strategic significance in both military and political terms. Hence the LTTEâs anxiety to prevent it >from falling into army hands, or to delay that as long as possible.

Mullaittivu is the largest town presently controlled by the Tigers. Losing it would be a severe psychological blow to the entire LTTE. It is also the main town of the district. Only Kilinochchi is of comparable size.

Militarily, Mullaittivu was considered so vital that the army maintained a 1,200-man garrison there, surrounded by the Tigers and supplied only by sea, for seven years, until the LTTE overran it in July of 1996. The camp was the headquarters of an entire brigade, with artillery batteries and heavy mortars.

The town commands a vital location on the eastern seaboard, in an area which has long been used by the Tigers to bring in their arms shipments. If the army captures Mullaittivu, the main supply route of the Tigers would be cut.

The Mullaittivu coast has also long been the stronghold of the Sea Tigers. Bases such as Chalai, Chemmalai and Alampil, from which they set out to attack navy sea convoys, dot the coastline. If Mullaittivu falls to the army, Alampil and Chemmalai would have to be abandoned by the Tigers, since they would be surrounded. Only the bases north of Mullaittivu would remain, for the time being.

Perhaps most importantly, Mullaittivu sits astride a 125-kilometer long road which once linked Trincomalee to Jaffna.

In other words, there are alternative MSRâs to Jaffna, which the Tigers are well aware of. One is on the West Coast, from Mannar to Pooneryn and across the Jaffna Lagoon by ferry. The other is from Trinco to Jaffna through Mullaittivu.

At the moment, the army controls a stretch from Trinco to Kokkutuduvai, which is about 50 kilometers, through Nilaveli, Kuchchaveli, Pulmoddai, and Kokkilai.

The Tigers control the rest. The road itself is no more than a dirt track, but it is usable, especially by heavy vehicles. It is far from ideal, since any vehicle would have to go across five ferries to cross lagoons which dot the sides of the road.

But it could still be an MSR. It could still be used to feed the 550,000 people in Jaffna.

Unlike the Kandy-Jaffna road, where the army tried to drive straight up, any thrust from the forces in Oddusudan would approach the road from sideways.

If the army captured Mullaittivu, nearly half of the 70-kilometer stretch which is held by the Tigers would fall into government hands.

Although this still leaves a long stretch, it would be far easier to capture than the Kandy-Jaffna road, since it is along the coast. Amphibious landings from naval warships could be made at any point along the road, and the Tigers would find it almost impossible to defend it.

It would also be far easier for the forces to defend this road against LTTE attack, than the Kandy-Jaffna road. With the sea on the east, only the western side of the road would have to be defended. Even that would be relatively easy, since two thirds of the way from Trincomalee would be protected by government territory extending west past the Kandy-Jaffna road.

Army defenders would also be secure in the knowledge that reinforcements would be with them within hours from Mullaittivu and Trincomalee, sent up the coast by sea.

Another point in capturing Mullaittivu would be the easing of LTTE attacks on every army camp from Trincomalee to Mullaittivu. Right now, all the camps are like isolated islands, especially at night, and small groups of Tigers sneak in every week and stage attacks, usually by laying mines or ambushing patrols. All this would cease.

If the army takes Mullaittivu, the LTTE link between the north and east would be almost wiped out. Tiger cadres would need to trek through a very long area indeed to get from the north to Batticaloa. New recruits from the east would have no way to get to the north.

For the army, there is nothing to lose in going after Mullaittivu, and everything to gain. For the Tigers, it could be another nail in their coffin.

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