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Ex post facto

Now that the dust has settled over the five provincial council elections that were completed last week, the inevitable spate of analyses of the outcome has begun to emerge. The state media, predictably, has hailed a great victory and the Observer, now under a new editor, has opined that the victory is not merely a vindication of the four and a half year rule of the People's Alliance but a signal that the majority of the people do not take the exposures on acts of governmental commission and omission seriously.

Whether the vast majority of the people will agree with this interpretation or not is debatable. The bottom line, as far as we can see, is that the government has lost some ground as many of its own leaders have publicly admitted; but the UNP is nowhere near home and dry. As Deputy Minister Anura Priyadharshana Yapa said in a Rupavahini discussion after the results were declared, the fact is that the PA had won four provinces from the UNP despite being at the fag end of their terms when public dissatisfaction is unavoidable.

There is no doubt that the UNP expected to do better than it did. Happily, last week's election was not a replay of the Wayamba war which Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake is on public record saying was the worst election the country has ever known. The government took a lot of flak over what happened there but is determined to hold on to the spoils regardless of public opinion. It can well be said that a court must decide whether the election can or cannot stand. As politicians like all human beings naturally hope for the best, the government will welcome as much time as possible between the actual event and the final judicial determination.

If politicians thought of the country rather than their own advantage, we would have seen another NWP election as well as the forthcoming Southern Provincial Council election on April 6 with the five others. But that was not to be. It is unlikely that a verdict on the legality of the NWPC election will be possible before the SPC election is worked off in May or June. And it is also not likely that President Kumaratunga will show her hand on whether she wishes to prematurely face the electorate instead of serving her full term till 2000. While analysts are agreed that the presidential election will precede the parliamentary election that is also scheduled for next year, opinion on whether Mrs. Kumaratunga will call early national elections or not remains divided.

Perhaps she herself is not yet decided and it is very likely that a decision will not precede the SPC election for which nominations have already been called and a polling day in late May or early June is likely. The president is confident about her own charisma. With five years of national leadership used to good advantage to sharpen her tactical skills, she will pragmatically decide on the best timing for herself and the People's Alliance. Meanwhile there has been no dearth of trumpet blowing, some of it stupid, on the great victory. Friday's Daily News for example, made a big song and dance about the stock market reacting spectacularly to the election result with foreign investors returning in numbers to the Colombo bourse. If the editorialist checked the day's market out before writing the hosanna published yesterday, he would have found that foreign sales were double the purchases a day after the resurgence!

The factors that will be taken into account before a decision on whether premature national elections will be desirable or not will include the economic downturn that we are on right now. Mrs. Kumaratunga can depend on her leftist allies clinging tenaciously to her sari pota despite the angry noises made after the Wayamba election. Remember the LSSP's brave statement that the people whom the president herself had identified as the worst culprits being rewarded with ministerial positions? Recall Mr. Ashraff's fury at what had been done to SLMC candidates in the war for preferences? All that is old hat now. One thing this election has clearly shown is that the PA is intact. Be it the Muslim Congress or Mr. Thondaman's CWC, no switching of horses seem likely on these results.

The JVP whose performance last week has been applauded all round will not lack suitors. Rupavahini Chairman Dew Gunasekera recalled over television that Rohana Wijeweera had polled approximately what the JVP did last week when he ran for president in 1982. But that election covered the whole country and not just five provinces. So there is no doubt that the JVP's vote bank has grown. It is already on record saying it will not help either the UNP or the PA to form the WPC administration. The big question is whether it will force another election in the Western Province.

Mr. Karu Jayasuriya has added to his stature not only by polling the highest number of preferences by far on April 6 but also by quitting the Colombo Mayoralty as promised before the election. He has acquired a reputation of being a man of his word and a new look politician. Efforts already begun to present him as a challenger to Mr. Ranil Wickremesinghe will no doubt be redoubled. Lots will happen in Lankan politics these coming months.

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