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Minister of Fisheries writes to the President
PA needs new thinking

19th April 1999
H. E. the President
Madam Chandrika Bandranaike Kumaratunge
Presidential Secretariat
Colombo.

Your Excellency,

I sincerely feel that this letter of mine on the present political situation would receive a very positive response from Your Excellency. I am also convinced that you will appreciate a serious and frank discussion in the true democratic tradition. We have to now think freely and without bias about the performance of our government, so far. I felt documenting my own observations would help in this matter.

Let me stress at the beginning that here are political trends that feel comfortable in arguing we have defeated the UNP in all the Provincial Councils the UNP was in control and that we could now use this electoral victory for future gains. Yet the election results would help to assess our position among the people and provide a firm basis to work out a short term plan for political and socio economic development to once again win those social forces who were with us when we were voted into power.

We as the PA started our campaign for the General Elections in August 1994 with a very broad gathering of support from almost every layer in society. The employees both in the public and the private sectors with very serious concerns about the UNP rule supported us wholeheartedly. We were very strongly and continuously backed by Media Personnel who organised themselves as the Free Media Movement with which most of us were very closely associated, politically, Singers, musicians, actors, writers, came forward to support us with their own formation the Kala Sandhanaya. There were other formations that included Community based and Non governmental organisations, advocacy groups who were on principle against the UNP rule and therefore had no hesitation in supporting us. Another important sector that we should not omit is the support base we had in the urban middle class and in the University academia. All these social layers and formations wanted a change. And they expected the PA government to guarantee a democratic society with transparency in government transactions and with our promise to provide a human face to the free economy to have a decent undisturbed life.

Therefore it could be said that our election victories in 1994 was facilitated by a very broad and articulate democratic movement which expected the PA to undo and rectify most of what the UNP had been doing over a decade and a half.

This was the line-up of forces when we were voted to power in 1994 August and the Provincial Council election results will be examined with that in background. There are few important trends among the voting population that we should take very serious note of. Before that. I wish to draw Your Excellency's attention to a more general feature relevant to the elections. In the campaign for provincial power none of the mainstream political parties including us, ever focused on real provincial issues that the people are concerned with. Including us, no one ever had development programmes for individual provinces. There are many issues that could be addressed to a fair extent with the present devolved power that include, Education, Health, Public Transport and Highways. These provincial issues and programmes for provincial development should have been the thrust of the election campaigns. Unfortunately, with all political parties ignoring this provincial aspect of the elections, the issues raised thus became national issues with the government and the UNP fighting it out between national images. And that also gave the JVP an opportunity to project itself as a remotely possible third force. At the provincial level for individual candidates it was therefore a battle for preferences sans politics.

With this campaign style and strategy it should be said the results show national trends that allows us to draw conclusions on how the people have behaved in this election and would behave in national elections. Having said that. I wish to draw Your Excellency's attention to the rejected vote that has galloped to over 334,000 (06.7 per cent) at this PC elections. This is even higher than the total votes polled by the JVP which is 248.800 (05.4 per cent). In our country the literacy rate is over 92 percent and the people had been casting their vote from 1931. In fact this is about the sixth time they voted at a proportional representation election. Even the Elections Commissioner would accept that this large bulk of rejected votes had very little to do with voter ignorance". Then why did over 334,000 voters, who carried 1,002,000 preferences decide to reject the vote? One it could be they have lost confidence in the voting system. Two they don't consider any political party worth their vote. These are two possible answers, at first glance. But if those who rejected their votes had any confidence in any single political party despite deficiencies in the voting system they would have still used their vote in a valid way. Thus, lack of confidence in all political parties clearly include the PA as well. This needs serious attention. If a fair percentage of this rejected vote swings towards the UNP, would not the entire picture change in a chaotic manner?

Fortunately those who rejected their votes, still feel the UNP is not worth a vote although they have reasons to reject us along with others. We should therefore ask ourselves whether our credibility has actually eroded. For it would be a very serious mistake to ignore the rejects as "voter ignorance".

The next is that we have lost the support base we had in the Colombo district. With the UNP Chief Ministerial aspirant Karu Jayasuriya leading the preference vote with a stunning 250,179 votes as against 162,415 votes for our ex - Chief Minister and the present nominee Susil Prem Jayantha, the Colombo district it seems has been conceded to the UNP, which has in Karu Jayasuirya, a very formidable figure for the Colombo middle class. And added to that after all these years in power at the Centre and in the Western Province we have failed to capture the minority vote which is a very significant block in Colombo. Out of the minority block, majority of the Muslim vote is with the UNP now. This is so in almost all the provinces even where the SLMC fielded its own candidates as shown below.

Another feature that is quite evident from the voting pattern in the Central Province is the shift of Plantation workers from the hold of the CWC. This challenge to the authority of the traditional CWC leadership should be considered in the context of Mr. S. Thondaman holding a Cabinet portfolio in our government.

Then it is pertinent to ask how the JVP improved or grew by about 48 per cent from where they were in 1997 March at the Local Government elections. Your Excellency would agree that it is the more "Left" inclined voter who would first react politically to changing socio economic conditions. And their articulations are still strong against the UNP amounting almost to a tradition. It was this mature layer of "left oriented" voters who elected MPs from the traditional Left within the PA in all previous elections. This PC elections clearly indicate, we have lost the majority of the traditional anti - UNP vote to the JVP and in Colombo to the MEP. Their conscience not allowing them to support the UNP they had aligned with the JVP to once again vote anti - UNP. That is the main reason why veteran "Left" politicians like Newton Seneviratne, Vajira Pelpitha, Kulasiri Kumarage, Lal Wijenaike, Raja Uswetakeiyawa among others who were ex-Provincial Councillors lost this time. And one main reason for a very significant swelling of the JVP votes.

These erosions on our own vote base needs serious thinking. Granting at everything the media and election monitors are talking about had no dent on the voting, can we be proud of the electoral achievements after 04 years and 06 months of power? At an average we have polled only (2,105,641 votes) 43.14 per cent as against the UNP that has 19,943,486 votes) 42.02 per cent. How secure is a 01.12 per cent margin and a poll's percentage well below 50 per cent for the PA?

We are in a situation where the JVP is growing around 48 per cent at an average. Where we are caught in a situation of loosing credibility and support from those social forces who were with us as reflected by the rejectedvote of over 6.5 per cent and where the Muslim vote within our own areas and plantation population are also outside our control. If this trend persists we would have to compromise with other minority vote - controllers from the Central and the Eastern Province to gain 50 per cent plus votes and to secure a majority in parliament in any election to come. In such a situation the JVP would have a bargaining power as evident in the Western Province. This situation needs very serious thinking and planning for short term development.

And we cannot hide the fact that increasing prices of essential commodities fuel and energy also added to the worsening situation. The cost of using electricity in our country where 55% of the households use electricity and where prices of all consumer products are directly affected by electricity, we are held responsible to an average price increase of over 275% since coming to power. The retail price of rice in the open market has gone up by 115%. The price of powdered milk by 75% and the cost of public transport by 140% (within a Rs. 50/- fare limit), while on the other side we cannot talk of any prices coming down or held stable. Add to this the plight of the Tea Smallholders and the Rubber plantation workers who make a very marginal living out of tapping. In the public and banking sectors there are numerous issues that could have been positively catered to ease their dissatisfaction.

The very sensitive issue of continuing with the war has not been reviewed here. It is again a major issue where neither Peace nor concluding a victorious War has been achieved.

Although the UNP has also not gained any advantage it should be honestly accepted that this is not a very satisfactory situation and therefore needs to be repaired, for the good of every one. There could be different approaches. But in order to open a discussion would suggest to.

* take immediate effective measure under Your Excellency's personal responsibility to win back the social forces who were with us and are moving away.

* give very high priority at national level to the cost of living public transport, health, food security, food crop agriculture and employment generation in rural projects.

* pave the way for a very democratic process within the PA where all policy decisions would have a consensus before they are transformed into policies of the government and

* co-ordinate all Pradeshiya Sahba, Urban Councils and Municipal Councils within each Province to work in collaboration with the Provincial Council on a closely worked out development plan with resources and power liberally vested with the local bodies as a short term strategy.

This is not in any way intended for me to shy away from any responsibility that we as a government would have to bear. Every one of us have a share of responsibility and as the political leadership of this government should discuss at length as to how we could without loss of time remedy the situation. I would therefore urge Your Excellency to respond to this matter with urgency and set time frames for a very detailed discussion to formulate a programme that would once again win back those social forces who were instrumental in defeating the UNP and create an environment of trust towards our government among the people.

It was under Your Excellency's leadership that all democratic forces rallied to defeat the UNP in 1994 and this time too it could be achieved if Your Excellency would take the initiative.

Mahinda Rajapaksa,
Vice President,
SLFP.
Minister of Fisheries & Aquatic Resources Development

A reply
Nationalism and Religion

by Analyst
I refer to Professor Abaya Aryasinghe's article under the headline "Nationalism and Religion", a comment on my write up published in 'The Sunday Island'.

May I point out that nationalism is not the same as patriotism. Patriotism is to the motherland and is also a modern concept. Under feudalism which prevailed in pre-colonial times of our history, allegiance and loyalty was to the ruler rather than to the motherland. Of course, in the course of history the ruler came to embody the values accepted by the subjects although the religion of the ruler was the religion of the subjects in an earlier period.

We know how politics is organised around ideology, the 'left' versus 'the right', between free market democracy and communism, though Fukuyama has argued that history in this sense of a clash of ideologies has reached its end with the collapse of communism.

Today, after the collapse of the empires, the Russian the British etc., nationalism has come to dominate in countries that were earlier part of such empires.

Nationalism

Most of us feel the need for an 'identity' - a sense of belonging to groups which are larger than our family but smaller than the whole world. We do not wish to be a mere part of the society in general but part of a tighter group.

People still are attached to their village, their caste. They may have attachments to their profession. Such attachments are exclusive in the sense that others are not free to voluntarily include themselves in such group.

Caste groups, ethnic or racial groups are completely exclusive and so are religious groups although one could change one's religion and adopt another.

Nationalism involves identifying the state with the people who inhabit it, on an exclusive cultural, ethnic and religious basis. International law does not recognise a nation without an exclusive territory. But national feeling in nationalism is based on race, ethnicity, language etc; rather than encompassing all those who inhabit such territory (excluding temporary foreign visitors).

So we have Sinhala Buddhists who define their own and other people's identity in exclusive closed terms. What is more significant is that to such people, the all important distinction is this cultural, religious identity. For them such identity isn't something to be acquired but born with and not to be easily cast aside.

Some nationalist types may demand assimilation to be considered as part of the nation as defined by them although racial or ethnic differences cannot be obliterated except in the long run through inter-breeding. Such identity feelings are to them, a strong emotional bond with a shared history and should be applied socially and politically.

Such identity is also not a private matter but demands public respect and recognition from every one in that society, in politics and by the state. Such identity requires to be defended against outsiders, be they Tamils, Muslims or Christians.

It is not enough that these minorities should be good citizens. The very existence of such minorities is offensive and a threat to their identity. So they would like such minorities to be assimilated and wants the state to implement such a policy as a single language, single religion, territorial dispersion of minorities etc.

Western Liberal tradition

In the Western liberal democratic tradition racism is outlawed. Cultural identity is flexible and religion is considered a private matter. This is not to deny that there is no racial prejudice against coloured people and non-Christian religions by individuals in those societies. But it is not state policy to do so.

Colour prejudice is a universal phenomenon as observed by Pearl S. Buck in her novel "The Good Earth" where she refers to men preferring fairer and white skinned women as sexual partners.

Liberal democracies prefer to define national identity in terms of occupation of a territory alone and treats cultural, religious, ethnic differences as not important.

The problem with the narrow concept of nationalism is the tension generated by an exclusive cultural and religious identity when it dominates politics and political debate not to speak of social debate.

Origin of Nationalism

When did nationalism in this strong emotional sense become important in the world in general and in Sri Lanka in particular? I quote from the book "Change and Habit - The Challenge of Our Time" by the famous historian Arnold J. Toynbee. "Though the present day nationalism has now captivated the whole human race, it is in origin, a specifically Western form of the Sumerian ideology. The non-Western peoples have been made to feel the force of it while they have been temporarily under Western domination. They have therefore taken nationalism to be a talisman that can raise the collective power of a local community to its maximum height."

The religious or spiritual impulse is thought to be universal. Human beings seek to make contact with super-human or transhuman forces whatever they may be. The religions are attempts to satisfy this inherent human impulse and people develop an emotional attachment to their particular religion which they response.

Buddhism as a religion may not value such emotion. But the existence of attachment to one's religion is a fact. Emotions are not based on reason. Head and heart may pull in different directions but there is unity in action and heart may prevail over head or vice versa.

Western philosophers like H. G. Wells have always argued that Buddhism preached compassion for all human beings and living beings too without confining it to one's race or religion. The Professor argues that King Asoka's edict is confined to his countrymen. This is not the view of the world historian Toynbee quoted earlier.

If we define national identity narrowly on the basis of religion, culture and ethnicity, groups left out will weaken the nation state as they will not have much enthusiasm for it. If there is discrimination against them, they will even rebel. This concept of nationalism or the identity of the nation state, led to the holocaust in Germany in the 1930's. We are witnessing a similar human catastrophe in Yugoslavia today.

We too had our own share of ethnic violence with periodic riots climaxing with the pogrom of 1983. Tamil ethnic nationalism has wreaked vengeance in return and continue to do so.

The nation state is being undermined by the process of globalisation. There is no doubt a serious threat to cultural and religious identity by global economic integration through trade, migrant workers, mobile capital and the free flow of information, ideas and images.

But any philosophy or religion of lasting value to mankind will not disappear. But it cannot be taken for granted. It calls for adherence to its values and principles by the followers of the religion, for a religion does not exist in a vacuum but only in the hearts and minds of people.

Experience of past suffering at the hands of South Indian invaders make us afraid of Tamil expansionism. We cannot alter history but can understand it better. We have to reach an accommodation with the Tamils. We can't live and act on folk memory however long such memory is. Much of ancient history is legend and myth.

The politics of identity have been managed in Western countries with some form of political devolution. There are no definitive solutions and no solution is without some risk of further divisiveness. But allowing for Liberal democracy and free expression of racial, religious identity with guarantees of non discrimination, in a well governed state, when there is law and order, have succeeded in managing multi-cultural divisiveness within a single state.

L E G A L W A T C H
Govt. intervenes in cricket and varsity administrations

by Nayana
Twenty-four days after the disputed Annual General Meeting of the Board of Control for Cricket in Sri Lanka (BCCSL), and a fortnight after the District Court of Colombo issued an ex parte enjoining order restraining 13 of the 17 members of the newly elected Executive Committee from functioning, the Minister of Sports intervened by appointing an ad hoc committee to run the affairs of the Board.

This belated intervention was accompanied by a letter from the Minister which was referred to the Court of Appeal by the District Judge hearing the case, as constituting a prima facie case of contempt of court.

The subsequent vacation of the enjoining order on April 26 meant that the elected Executive Committee would now function pending the final hearing and determination of the case, and the Minister's ad hoc committee will no longer be required.

As a result the legality of the Minister's move is unlikely to be questioned, but his action, as well as the legal framework within which such problems need to be resolved, is worthy of scrutiny in the interests of the future of cricket administration in this country.

Intervention by political authorities in the activities of sporting bodies tends to be controversial, although it has been resorted to from time to time in all parts of the world, mainly when a country's participation in an international event is involved.

On this occasion, eye-witness accounts indicate that the Annual General Meeting of the BCCSL was conducted more like a Sri Lankan political event. Predictably, it was followed by an election petition of a sort, and an enjoining order that resulted in the non-functioning of the Cricket Board on the eve of the World Cup. There were calls for outside intervention.

Into this impasse, somewhat belatedly, stepped the Minister. His eight member ad hoc committee comprised the four members of the Executive Committee who were not covered by the enjoining order, together with four other officials.

The Minister also suspended the operation of Clause 24 of the BCCSL Constitution and also directed that the quorum of eight required for an Executive Committee meeting under Clause 16 be reduced to four.

Clause 24 deals with the duties of the Treasurer. Two members of the ad hoc committee were to be designated to sign cheques but no temporary Treasurer was named, even though Duleep Mendis was named as Chairman of the ad hoc committee and Jayananda Warnaweera was designated as its Secretary. Cricket Board CEO Dhammika Ranatunga was to be responsible for entering into contracts and conducting administrative functions.

Under Section 33 of the Sports Law of 1973, the Minister "may make interim arrangements for continuing the functions of a National Association of Sports under suspension or whose registration has been refused or cancelled."

However, this provision was not applicable to the situation that arose in April. A perusal of the preceding section of the Sports Law makes it clear that this discretion to make interim arrangements relates to the Minister's power to "refuse registration or suspend or cancel the registration of a National Association of Sports" which is set out in Section 32.

For better or worse, the Minister is not empowered by the Sports Law to intervene in the administration of a national sports association which is subject to a court order.

The only authority which can authorize such an intervention is the court itself, and it was open to the Minister, through the Attorney-General, to move to be added as a party to the case and then seek an appropriate order from court.

This was exactly the course of action advised by the Attorney-General's Department in a letter dated April 12 which was written in reply to a query from the Secretary to the Sports Ministry a few days previously. The Attorney-General's Department letter also recommended that the interim board should consist of "suitable past cricketers who have represented the country".

This advice was apparently not acceptable to the Minister who deliberated nine days before appointing the ad hoc committee referred to above.

A further point is that there is no provision in the Sports Law or the BCCSL Constitution that allows the Minister to suspend any clause of the Board's Constitution. Apart from the powers given to the Minister under Sections 32 and 33 of the Sports Law discussed above, the BCCSL Constitution allows for ministerial intervention only for the following purposes:

He has a discretion to waive the qualifications normally required of candidates for Executive Committee posts (a power he reportedly exercised in respect of Clifford Ratwatte in the present instance), and to waive the rule requiring office-bearers to step down after two consecutive years in office. In addition, the Sports Ministry is entitled to nominate a representative to the Executive Committee.

There is another feature of the BCCSL, Constitution that merits attention. The Chief Executive of the ICC, when apprised of the problems developing at the Sri Lankan Cricket Board, is reported to have suggested the appointment of a number of Trustees to run the affairs of the Board until the dispute regarding its elected office-bearers was resolved.

Unfortunately such a move is not possible in the case of the BCCSL because its Trustees, in whom the property of the Board is vested (as required in the case of any unincorporated association), are the President, the Vice-Presidents and the Secretary - in other words its principal elected officer-bearers.

Usually trustees are the persons who provide a link of legal continuity in an association while elected officials come and go. BCCSL members may consider whether the present arrangement is a feasible one, given the recent behavioural trend at Board elections.

Universities

Now to academia: A Bill to amend the Universities Act No. 16 of 1978 is being challenged in separate petitions by senior members of the academic staff of Colombo University who allege undue interference with academic freedom, and by University Registrars and Bursars who are collectively in danger of losing their jobs under the proposed law.

The origin of the problem which the Bill is purportedly intended to address lies in allegations of financial corruption which were made against two leading Universities. Petitions were sent to Members of Parliament, and the parliamentary Committee on Public Enterprises (COPE) called in some senior university officials for a hard-hitting session which reportedly left the legislators with misgivings about the way the Universities were being administered.

The Government's response was to Gazette the Universities (Amendment) Bill which makes far-reaching changes in the manner of appointment of Vice-Chancellors, Registrars and Bursars, and also alters the composition of the University Councils by bringing in Members of Parliament. University sources claim it was drafted without any consultation with them.

Previously, the Vice-Chancellor was appointed for a three-year term by the Chancellor upon being elected by the University Court which is a large body comprising senior officials of the University as well as representatives of academic staff, administrative staff and students, and six Members of Parliament who are members of the University.

The Bill presently before Parliament provides for the President to make the appointment upon the recommendation of the Minister of Education and the University Grants Commission. The University Council will be required to submit a panel of three names, and if the Minister and the Grants Commission cannot agree on a name, a further list of three names will have to be submitted.

Under the 1978 Act, the VC is removable by the Chancellor on a vote of censure passed by a two-thirds majority by the University Court. The Bill empowers the President to remove the VC after consultation with the Minister and the Grants Commission. The VC is the chief executive and academic officer of the University and is also in charge of university discipline.

All serving Registrars and Bursars will cease to hold office upon enactment of the Bill and the University Grants Commission will have a discretion whether to re-employ them or pay them compensation. The Bill also removes the requirement that the Registrar and the Bursar should be full-time members of the University staff.

While six MPs who are members of the University already sit in the University Court as mentioned above, the Bill proposes to appoint two MPs (one from the Government and one from the opposition) to the University Council. This is a smaller body consisting only of senior officials and academic staff but is the most powerful body in the University, virtually controlling its day to day administration.

The thinking of the Government appears to be that in the light of allegations made, outside scrutiny is needed for this vital body. The fear of the Universities appears to be that their traditional autonomy will be interfered with.

The petitions against the Bill are expected to be taken up for hearing in the Supreme Court tomorrow.

An explosive incident - (Part 1)

By John Wyatt
John Wyatt gives a personal account of his involvement for four years in an enquiry concerning an explosion which from humble beginnings became excessively complicated and fraught with political intrigue.

I received a phone call from a friend of a friend who asked me whether I could tell from a series of photographs if an explosion was caused by a vehicle running over a mine or by an Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attached to the vehicle. Not having seen the photographs, this was a bit of a leading question, but who wants to turn down possible work? So I said that it might be possible, depending upon the quality and content. My caller seemed to be very keen to get my opinion. However, I was due to leave the country on a business trip in the next few days so we arranged to meet at Heathrow on my way out. You can imagine the scene - a strange man approaching at a busy airport clutching a series of sensitive photographs. I did not realize how sensitive - until later.

He was very pleasant and handed me the photographs (twenty four 12"x10' colour prints). The photographs, some of which are shown here, gave views of the scene of the explosion, damage to the vehicle and injuries to the occupants (they had all been killed, I was told on that occasion). What was my first impression? At this stage I was not told of the circumstances leading prior to, or subsequent to, the incident.

Viewing photographs in isolation is very difficult, but there was sufficient doubt as to the cause of the incident. It was not clear cut, and some aspects seemed to support the view that it could well have been an IED, I was then given some of the detail.

Circumstances of the incident

The area in which the incident occurred was remote, and had been in the hands of terrorists. It had been retaken by the government forces, but still suffered from sporadic attacks. Government forces were considering a new offensive and needed to get a better view of the terrorists' position. The site of the explosion was approx. 1 km from a vantage point to which a senior officer and his staff would go. The vantage point was vulnerable to terrorist fire, so only one vehicle went forward leaving other vehicles and staff a further 1km behind. The reconnaissance completed, the vehicle returned. It was all the return journey that it exploded, killing all the occupants save one.

Although there was a partially metalled road to the vantage point, it was in poor repair so it was usual for vehicles to go off on one side to avoid the potholes. As you can see, the ground is easily traversed on either side of the main route, and there are several good alternatives which were regularly used. On the return journey, the Land Rover took a side track rather than the metalled road, and when it was about to rejoin the metalled road, the explosion occurred. This route to the vantage point, which was permanently manned, was swept by soldiers every morning to check for mines. An area of approx. 50m either side of the metalled road was cleared.

The next relevant point I was told was rather the principal senior officer involved was extremely popular in the country, and was possibly going to the the next Chief of Staff. However, he was not liked by some very senior politicians, including the President of the time. There was also an element of political intrigue between the government (certain members) and the terrorists. This officer was of impeccable character, well known for his honest approach and dealings with his own men and the terrorist opposition. His removal could therefore be seen as a benefit to some. Hence the suspicion that this incident might not be as it appeared.

Other relevant points were that:

1. The vehicle was left unattended at the vantage point, so the placing of an IED was possible.

2. Several of the photographs were taken some time after the incident, thus allowing tampering with evidence.

3. The character of the people reflected the possibility of suicidal collusion, if they felt the cause was just. Investigations under these circumstances are therefore more difficult.

My initial comments

I was not a forensic scientist, nor have I any formal forensic training. My experience was based on over twenty years in Explosive Ordinance Disposal (EOD) and the effects of explosives. Operations in Northern Ireland, Falklands, South America, Angola and the Middle East had given me a 'hands-on' practical view of this type of incident. My last job as a fulltime serving officer was as the Senior Instructor on mine warfare, where the effects and development of mines were discussed and taught in great detail. Based upon the information I was given and the series of photographs, I was able to make the following comments.

Introduction

In August, a Land Rover with its occupants was blown up by a explosive device detonating under the rear of the vehicle.

There is some doubts as to what caused this explosion, but it would seem that there are two alternatives: a device on or below the surface of the ground or a device attached to the vehicle itself.

General Aspect

If the explosion was caused by a mine, the mine would have to have been either an anti-tank mine or something specifically made which was large enough to throw the vehicle the distance shown in the photograph below.

The laying of such a mine in isolation in the hope that a vehicle would drive over it in the position shown in the photograph is very unlikely, particularly as the route had been swept that morning. It is also relevant that the explosion took place under the rear of the vehicle. This presupposes that the front wheels missed the mine, which is difficult to imagine with a Land Rover which does not have the wheels offset and does not have a particularly long wheelbase. There was no evidence to show that the vehicle was in the process of turning, which may possibly account for it. Other possibilities are that the mine was double impulse or remotely controlled (either wire or radio). There was no evidence to support either view.

In this type of terrain, it is assumed that something on the surface would be seen relatively easily, and so could have been avoided. It would also have been seen during the sweep.

The Crater

The crater shown in the photograph above is indicative of an explosion either on or above ground. A buried device or mine would have created a more defined "V" shape with the edges rimmed with eject. This crater appears more shallow, even allowing for fall-back. The crust (former surface) appears to have been shattered, and not heaved from below.

The fissures shown in the bottom of photo 3 are also more likely caused by high pressure from above.

There is also no apparent rupture zone, though this may be because the crater has been disturbed (i.e. photo not taken immediately after the incident).

Vehicle Damage

It is in this area that photographic evidence is considerably more difficult to analyze than on the spot inspection. However, there are a couple of interesting aspects that are worthy of comment.

In the photograph at the heading of this article, and on the front cover, parts of the exhaust system can be seen. The boxes would appear to be little damaged, but one of the pipes shows a crimping effect denoting a high shock wave local to the area.

The whole appearance of the vehicle is one of a tearing and cutting effect local to the seat of the explosion, as opposed to a longer impulse pressure over a wider area, which could be apparent from the type of explosive used in mines and from a greater distance. This does not discount the use of explosive of high detonating rate, such as plastic explosive (RDX) or home made device on the surface.

Human Injuries

It is difficult to make an assessment from the injuries shown, without knowing where each body was situated in the vehicle. However there are some general comments.

The overall appearance of the human injuries (not all shown here because of their horrific nature is that of their sustaining great shock from a very fast detonating rate. This has the same effect as that or the vehicle i.e., cutting and ripping. It a is in sharp= contrast to a more distant (underground) and slower detonating rate. This would have left the bodies more interact, although damage to the metal components of the floor might also produce a cutting effect.

Deduction

The size of the device which would cause such damage would have to be at least - 4kgs TNT equivalent i.e., not an anti-personnel mine.

The crater would seem to indicate an above ground explosion, although the crater diameter is quite large (this may be due to soil type) for this type of scenario.

The circumstances of an isolated undetected mine or static surface device seems highly unlikely.

The damage to the vehicle and the human injuries indicate the use of an explosive of high detonating rate, and very close. This is symptomatic of an Under Vehicle IED (UVIED) similar to those used by the IRA in Northern Ireland, which uses Plastic Explosive such as RDX rather than cheap cast explosive or TNT used in mines.

Conclusion

There appears to be strong evidence to suggest that this explosilioon was not caused by a buried milne. It could have been caused by a device on the surface, but with the size required, obvious visual signs (to the driver and earlier sweepers) and by missing the front wheels of the vehicle this is highly unlikely.

The most likely scenario is that of an IED attached to the underside or inside the vehicle near the right rear wheel. This could be remotely detonated in a number of ways (see postscript after Part 2).

Second Stage

My brief report found its way back to the country concerned. Whoever commissioned it (I was unaware of whom it was at this stage) was obviously pleased with the results and probably the conclusion, as I was soon contacted again. Could I now make a video of my findings?! This rather threw me and was certainly not what I was expecting. However, after a few discussions with colleagues and family, I came up with a workable and inexpensive solution. I sat at a desk in my dining room with a small stand to hold the photographs. My daughter then filmed me speaking to the camera describing the report in more detail, and illustrating it with the photographs. Where necessary she zoomed in on the photographs to show detail. By the time we had added a bit of introductory music and the conclusion, we had approximately 12 minutes of video. This was dispatched, and no more was heard for a while. The next thing that happened was that I was rung up by a friend in a totally different country to say that my name was plastered all over the newspapers, and it now came to light what had instigated my appointment. The wife and friends of the senior officer killed were unhappy with the official report, encapsulated by a One Man Committee Report, which said that the incident was caused by a buried terrorist mine. They wanted a second opinion. My report, together with the video, resulted in the opening of a Presidential Commission of Inquiry,

Presidential Commission of Inquiry

Other relevant facts also came to light. The wife of the senior officer was able to point out that her husband was the subject of intrigue and manipulation. He had been reported killed on two previous occasions and there had been efforts to strip him of his command and dilute his authority. Not surprising therefore that she was suspicious of the circumstance surrounding the incident.

The Commission consistent of three serving judges from the Commonwealth, to ensure as far as possible an unbiased view of the circumstances. I was invited to appear before the Commission. However, I had a problem. Here was I taking an opposite view to the President and some members of his Government in a very sensitive and dangerous case (ten people had been killed). I was not going to go! Apart from common sense, my wife would not let me! Again I was surprised because a few weeks later I was told the whole Commission was coming to London, so that I could attend.

The major difference between this Commission and the One man Committee was that witnesses could have the benefit of Counsel and cross examination could take place. The previous Committee had been held in private with the Judge himself examining all the witnesses.

My role was as an expert witness, i.e. by answering questions put to me by both Counsels, I would assist the Commission to get a better understanding of the technical aspect. However, remembering that I had only seen photographs, I had difficulty over specialist and, when faced with evidence from people who have been to the site, I was not on strong ground.

Taking an opposite view to mine was a Senior Assistant Government Analyst, who had been called in to investigate. He arrived on site eleven days after the incident. He said he had found a crater approximately 3m in diameter and 1.3m deep and that it had a "V" shape with raised edges. He also found pieces of metal embedded in the crater and was handed some more found by an army officer. These matched the design of a typical terrorist mine. If this was true (remember that 11 days had elapsed), then I would also have to conclude that a mine had caused the explosion.

There were also discrepancies over the vehicle damage. Some of the detail had been lost in the movement of the wreckage back to one of the local army camps. I also had to admit that my intimate knowledge of vehicle parts was not good and therefore my interpretation of the photographs was weak. However, the damage was not conclusive one way or the other. The injuries to the occupants of the vehicle were not discussed.

In view of the evidence they had heard, the Commission deduced that the cause of the explosion was a land mine placed by the terrorists. The deciding factors were the finding of fragments in the crater, the size of the crater and the discrepancies over conclusive evidence of damage to the vehicle. They argued that the front wheel of the Land Rover did not set off the mine because it had either missed it or bounced over it! The Inquiry from its start to production of the final report took one moment.

I was not told of the outcome, and received no more details, so presumed that this incident was now closed. But two years later I was suddenly contacted again, to be told that the Government had now changed, and a Special Presidential Commission of Inquiry had been set up to investigate the same incident, as certain other information had materialiced that cast the previous Inquiry into doubt.

In the second part of this article I will describe the ensuing event, including my visit to the country and the scene of the incident and the involvement of other "experts". It is particularly interesting to see how supposed "facts" become only theories and that if one is not careful one loses sight of the main aim: there are so many "red herrings" that the thread is lost.

The final conclusions may surprise you.

-- Intersec

John Wyatt is a specialist in explosive effects and providing cost effective prospective solutions.

To be continued

Leader who faced crises with confidence
Yet performed the greatest service to the people

by S. J. Anthony Fernando
One of the notable attributes of the style of governance of late President Ranasinghe Premadasa is that he steadfastly avoided participating in foundation stone laying ceremonies for any programme or project whether it be big or small.

He has studied the experiences of previous regimes since independence when foundation snes and commemorative plaques of projects laid with great fanfare were found to have been swarmped by weeds. He would, as he told officials, participate in only the opening of a project or inauguration of specific programmes of work.

State officials who have had the opportunity of working with him (many of whom are still in government service) as well as the media personnel who covered his programmes would vouch that he steadfastly adhered to this principle when he was Minister and Prime Minister for twelve years under President J. R. Jayewardene and four years as the Executive President of the country.

One is reminded of this trait of President Premadasa today as we witness almost daily foundation stone laying ceremonies on state television and the newspapers.

As much as he would avoid like the plague attending foundation stone laying ceremonies, President Premadasa would go to town, so to say, on completion of a project be it a model village, rural electrification programme, water supply scheme, model townships and buildings, roads, industries, common amenitins etc. He would not only open the projects but attempt to get as much mileage as possible by getting maximum publicity for such events.

He believed that talking to people on completion of a project helps to carry the message more forcefully than at mere propaganda meetings. The elaborate arrangements that go with the openings to get the people's involvement in events connected with opening of the project made some armchair critics brand them as "Tamashas".

It is this aspect which some try to discern as a "weakness" of Premadasa. The "weakness" was to give the people of the entertainment starved villagers something to enjoy - often singers, an exhibition or a first class Sinhala drama when a project is opened. However can this cloud his performances which can be seen with the naked eye wherever one travels in the country? Are not carnivals and tamashas held today at the mere drop of a hat without any beneficial project being opened or at foundation stone laying ceremonies?

It came to a stage that opening of a completed project by President Premadasa became a frequent occurrence - often two to three in a week. At times five or six projects were opened in one tour. On that score he became the most travelled leader of the country going even to nooks and corners of the country not visited by a Prime Minister or head of state up to then.

Naturally the media reported these events and they were chock a block with the speeches and event he participated in. This coupled with his other engagements like meeting foreign guests, speeches at events where he is invited as chief guest led to the justifiable belief by many that President Premadasa was over using the media and the projects he had opened never existed whereas in fact they exist to this day. In fact some of those armchair critics now in power had seen such projects and works of Premadasa and had even marvelled at these achievements.

A glaring example is the criticism were the clock towers, at stand at prominent places in the locality where a garment factory had been opened under the 200 Garment Factory Programme. The critics said that he had only opened the clock towers. If they had gone a little further they would find the garment factory giving employment to a large number of poor village girls and boys.

Much criticism is made of his pet project of the Village Re-awakening Movement being inaugurated on his birthday and the annual commemoration of the event as mere birthday bashes. Do these critics stop to ponder how many hundreds of villages have been reawakened and the inhabitants given a better environment to live in, and how many millions of people had benefited from the infrastructure development that went with such village development.

Even when the Gam Udawa anniversary events are held the whole districts and neighbouring areas received a face lift and additional amenities. What better way to commemorate one's birthday than serving the people, one may ask.

As the people knew, his birthday was commemorated on a low key giving pride of place to the concepts of the Village Reawakening Programme?

How much would the people benefit if all politicians would do similar services on their birthdays or even to commemorate landmarks in their personal lives.

For some, specially his detractors, Premadasa seemed to enact a one man show. For some others his style of government seemed autocratic. His inborn zeal and trait to get a job of work or programme accomplished fast may have appeared is some as being autocratic. It was his nature to bother politicians and officials until a job on hand is accomplished, all this on behalf of the people. In the process of moving fast he may have trod on the corns of some, turning some of them into political enemies later.

A politician cannot please all but he would have done his job if he had worked in the interest of the greater good of the majority of the people. A pragmatic leader he felt the pulse of the people and evolved solutions suited to that particular problem without being bogged down by dogma. It was his vision to launch programmes which benefited a larger mass of people than a few selected individuals or groups. That was the motivation which led him to launch programmes like the Janasaviya Poverty Alleviation Programme, the Presidential Mobile Services Programme, provision of free mid day meal and school uniforms to children, 200 Garment Factories Programme, the village reawakening and town development programmes coupled with housing development programmes name a few.

Premadasa's four year stint as executive president showed the element in him in weathering crisis after crisis no leader faced. He had to weather the LTTE terror in the north and east and JVP terror in the rest of the country when he assumed office as President - a situation poles apart from the friendly atmosphere in which the present government took office. Then there was the impeachment when a disgruntled section of his party men teamed up with the opposition which failed with his parliamentary group rallying round him.

Yet he was able to weather all these upheavals and by 1991 helped the country overcome the holocausts of these conflicts and achieving an unprecedented economic revival of the country which brought in a record 7 per cent growth earning commendation in World Bank reports to this day. Foreign investment was at a peak resulting in several ventures giving employment to thousands and boosting exports.

Many tried to brand him as a man who instilled terror. On the contrary he was the man who freed the country from terror unleashed by the JVP when rebels numbering less than one percent held over 99 per cent of the population to ransom denying their basic human liberties. Even many present day P.A. politicians who went into hiding then found their political freedom after JVP terror ended.

Would democracy or freedoms exist today if the terrorists had their way, and the country had not been put on a fast track of economic recovery by President Premadasa? Should not many P.A. parliamentarians be thankful to him for safeguarding their freedoms and also enabling them to improve their businesses or their personal standing in life before 1994 after freedom was restored in 1990?

Had there been any instance of communal violence erupting in the country after 1990 even when several hundreds of our soldiers were killed in the North. Remember black July started after 18 soldiers were killed in the North. After the J.V.P. was eliminated there had been not a single instance of communal clashes. It is certainly not one of recent achievements as bragged by the P.A.

President Premadasa may have erred in certain areas. However whatever he did it was with the welfare of the majority of the people at heart. Whatever distortions of history his detractors may indulge in would not cloud the enormous services he had rendered to the people and the country.

What ails the UNP ? - Part 2

by Neville Jayaweera
formerly of the Ceylon Civil Service

THE WRITING ON THE WALL

It used to be said of the British, with reference to their historic inability to discern a looming threat to their nation, that they could never read the writing on the wall until they had their backs to it. However it was also the peculiar genius of the British race that finally when they had their backs to it they not only read the writing correctly, but amazingly, went on to win the day as well! The UNP has had its' back to the wall for over four years but there is yet no evidence that they have turned round to decipher the writing, never mind going on to win the war!

A RAMPAGING CHANDRIKA

I found the reaction of the UNP's apologists to the results of the PC elections quite disappointing, even farcical. Most of them took comfort in the PA's drop in support from the heady days of President Chandrika Kumaratunge's famous 62% victory of November '94 and inferred that the support for the PA will eventually sink below the UNP's. This argument rests on two fallacies. Firstly, the fall in the PA's figures does not necessarily mean that they will eventually fall below those of the UNP because the UNP's vote has also been falling. The UNP's average vote fell from 50.6 % at the ' 93 PC elections to 47.6% at the 94 Parliamentary elections and to 41.6% at the '99 PC elections. ( Please see the table below). The second fallacy is that the presidential election of '94 is hardly a plausible baseline from which to measure the PA's falling popularity. President Kumaratunge won that massive vote at what was virtually an uncontested election! It was freak phenomenon, absolutely untypical and unlikely ever to be repeated. Therefore the picture it presented of the relative strengths of the PA and the UNP was grossly distorted. President Kumaratunge's real opponent, Mr. Gamini Dissanayake had been assassinated barely a week earlier. The UNP high command, thinking of exploiting the tragedy, pressed the grieving widow Srima, much against her will, to take on a rampaging Chandrika who was fresh from her triumphs in the Southern and Western Provinces. The outcome was hardly to be wondered at. Besides the UNP did not confront Chandrika as a united force. Many powerful segments of the UNP who resented Mr. Gamini Dissanayake being parachuted back into the UNP from the wilderness actually worked against his widow, or at the hest, watched from the wings as Mr. Ranil Wickremasinghe may recall. Therefore, to adopt the presidential elections of '94 as a bench mark for measuring the PA's popularity during the following four years is neither realistic nor convincing.

ILLUMINATING TABLE

Rather than measure how far the PA has dropped in popularity the UNP should be more concerned with whether they have themselves gained in popularity relative to their own past performance. That should be the true test of their strength. For that purpose the following table which shows the UNP's performance at the three most important elections of the past five years may be more illuminating.

  '93PC % '94 Parlt% '99 PC%
WP 40.4 42.3 43.3
CP 53 53.2 38.4
NCP 52 44.8 39
UV 57 50.8 44
SAB 51 49.4 44.8
Average vote 50.6 47.6 41.6

The base year in this table is 1993 when the UNP was almost at the fag end of its 17 year rule and when its popularity was in decline. President Premadasa had been assassinated barely a month earlier and his legendary electioneering and manipulative skills were no longer available to the UNP. However it was a totally clean election with neither violence nor vote rigging to mar the results. Therefore one can assume that those figures present a true picture of the UNP's strength in the country at that time.

The second column shows the UNP's performance at the '94 parliamentary elections. With the Southern the Western Province scalps already under the PA's belt, Mrs. Kumaratunge is bearing down on the UNP. The UNP is on its' last legs and in terminal decline. This is reflected in the 3% fall in support. However at the Presidential elections a few months later, in the absence of any plausible contest, Mrs. Kumaratunge surged to a 30% lead over the UNP.( I have not shown these figures in the table above for the reasons I have already adduced ).

The third column shows the UNP's performance at the five PC elections of April '99 The party's support has fallen 6% from the parliamentary elections of '94, and amazingly, after it had been reorganised over a period of four years under the leadership of Mr. Ranil Wickremasinghe. One thing is immediately clear and that is that the UNP, in irreversible decline after '93, had fared better under President D. B. Wijetunge both in '93 and in '94 than under Mr. Wickremasinghe in '99. At the worst of times, except in '56 under Sir John Kotelawala, the UNP has always retained its' 40% - 42% irreducible vote bank. For all Mr. Wickremasinghe's heroic efforts during the past four years all that the UNP has to show is this irreducible vote bank, which it would have got in any case, with or without Mr. Wickremasinghe.

The UNP won 7 electoral divisions less in '99 than in '94. Significantly the UNP lost Biyagama, Mr. Ranil Wickremasinghe's electorate also.

We have to account for this perplexing phenomenon. Why does the UNP seem to be worse off today, relative to its' performance four years ago? The phenomenon is perplexing for several reasons.

WICKREMASINGHE'S ADVANTAGES

Firstly Mr. Ranil Wickremasinghe had several advantages over anyone else in the UNP. He had the advantage of youth, a generational riposte to Mrs. Kumaratunge not to be ignored. Also he had worked very hard at reorganising his party. One can hardly think of a party leader who has applied himself so unremittingly and so sincerely to his task as has Mr. Wickremasinghe. He has drastically overhauled the party machine, he has placed his nominees in all key places and he has had more committees looking into various problems, than one can count. There is hardly a town or village that he has not visited. However the outcome does not show a proportionate impact. Why?

Secondly the outcome is also perplexing because no opposition leader in this country has ever had such mass media backing as Mr. Wickremasinghe has had. Some TV channels and the print mass media have given him a degree of support such as no opposition leader in this country could even have dreamt of, least of all Mrs. Kumaratunge when she was in the opposition.

Thirdly, no incumbent head of government has been so systematically criticised, lampooned, abused, denigrated and even libeled as has his rival President Mrs. Kumaratunge. No, not even President Premadasa, and that is really saying something! However the outcome does not show that Mr. Wickremasinghe has been able to capitalise this massive media support to his advantage. Why?

Fourthly the outcome is also perplexing for the reason that the during the past four years the PA has not come up with any innovative policies and has been merely harvesting the fruits of the policies sowed by the UNP. What are the main ingredients on the PA's slate of policies? The market economy, privatisation of state assets, export oriented industries - principally the garment industry, tourism, foreign employment and poverty alleviation - all policies kicked off by the UNP. In fact the PA has run away with the UNP's clothes and having added a few frills here and there, are showing them off as their very own. The UNP has allowed the PA to get away with this brazen charade and the voters do not seem to have noticed. Why?

The questions I have posed above are not intended to be rhetorical. On the contrary I intend them as an underpinning for the over-riding question - why the UNP, with so much going for it, failed to perform even as efficiently as it did under President D. B. Wijetunge in '94. at the end of its' 17 year rule. I shall try to hazard an answer in part 3 of this article.

UNP's PACKAGE OF ISSUES

Meanwhile let us look at the package of issues which the UNP adopted as its' election plarform, to see whether something went drastically wrong there.

The following comprised the UNP's package of issues for the election trail.. The cost of living, the collapse of the economy, the PA's broken promises, corruption, suppression of the media, denial of fundamental rights, the Wayamba debacle, messing up the war and the alleged misdemeanours of President Kumaratunge and her party stalwarts. Actually none of these issues, not even all of them together, seem to have dented the PA seriously..

For instance, while the cost of living has risen sharply, so have real incomes. While the statistics tell us that the economy has slowed down, visible and tangible evidence from the high street and from the rural areas tell a different story. One of the surest indices of the health of an economy is the vitality of the private sector building construction industry, domestic dwellings as well as commercial buildings. Everywhere I have been in this country I have been absolutely amazed at the pace of building construction work. People are either taking extensions to existing dwellings or are putting up fancy new structures. All along the roadside new enterprises are springing up almost daily, ranging from take- away outlets, computer sales shops and way side motels to car sales outlets. Not just in towns but deep in the rural areas as well. Another test of the economy is the volume of advertising in the system. Ask any advertising company and they will tell you~ that they are making more profits today than ever before. What all this means is that a larger and larger number of people have more and more disposable incomes in their pockets. In other words there is money in the economy, not inflated paper money but real money, more equally distributed among the people than ever before. There is no point in repeating like a mantra the refrain about a collapsing economy when to every one except the proverbial ostrich the truth is the contrary. When propaganda contradicts peoples perceptions, when it flies in the face of experience, it flops. That was what happened to the UNP's main propaganda line.

Now, the truth of the matter is that most of this prosperity is really the UNP's sowing over the past decade coming into full bloom. All the PA had to do was to keep their so called socialist policies locked up and give the market policies of the UNP full reign, which they have done fairly well especially since '98. As far as the people are concerned it is entirely academic who originated the policies and who are benefiting now, as long as they themselves are doing alright. It is absolutely ironic but sadly true that today the PA is exploiting those very policies which the UNP launched, with which to beat the UNP. I think therefore that the UNP's' reliance on the cost living and the so called down turn of the economy to see them through came badly unstuck,

Let us consider the issue concerning the freedom of the media. Surely any person can see that despite several attacks on individual journalists and despite the brazen misuse of ANCL and Rupavahini and ITN, the media have much greater freedom today than ever before- freedom to criticise, caricature, lampoon and even malign, often to the point of libel. The people can see this for themselves. Then what about the issue of corruption. The people are cynical and simply laugh because they will tell you that everybody is doing it, the UNP when they were in office and now the PA and that there is nothing to chose between them and that least of all, the UNP can hardly point a finger. What about all this talk concerning ballot rigging, election violence, Wayamba etc. The people laugh even louder! They tell me that the PA has yet to learn all the tricks of the trade from the UNP!

POLITICAL CAT - WALK

So in effect, while the PA has run away with the UNP's clothes ( the market economy, export oriented industries, etc) and are disporting themselves to great effect on the political cat walk, the UNP is hard - up for a new set of policies with which to seduce the electorate away.

The UNP's greatest policy failure is in relation to the ethnic issue. One must hand it to President Kumaratunga, rightly or wrongly she has put out a comprehensive set of proposals and at least the people know where she is heading. Does any one know the UNP's policy on the ethnic issue. Does even Mr. Wickremasinghe? At one time it was asymmetrical devolution. At another time it was a revival of the old executive committee system. At another time it was power sharing at the centre. Now it is "Let's renew talks with the LTTE ", but an year ago after the Maligawa bombing, it was something else. The crass opportunism and bankruptcy underlying this shilly shallying has not gone unnoticed by the electorate. It sums up the sorry straits to which the party has been reduced.

LEADERSHIP OF THE UNP

Then, what must the UNP do in order to regain power? It is clear that there is really no great difference between the PA and the UNP in the realm of policies. The PA has shed its' historic policies (a gooey mish-mash of Bandaranaike policies - whatever that may mean - and the tattered old slogans of the LSSP, CP et al) and have taken on board all of the UNP's own historic policies, lock, stock and barrel!, the good, the bad and the ugly (private enterprise, privatisation, export oriented industrialisation, poverty alleviation etc). On the other hand, the UNP has run out of new policies except their resolve to set up three independent commissions to overview the judiciary, the public services and the police service. Excellent stuff, but Tissahamy of Udukinda and Gunadasa of Beliatta are not interested and could care less. Such issues are of interest only to a miniscule section of the electorate and even within that miniscule section the question is being asked, "How is that the UNP is seeing the need for these commissions only when they are in the opposition. Wasn't Mr. Wickremasinghe in the Cabinet for 17 years and that too with a three fourth majority in Parliament. How many times did he ask for these commissions during those 17 years"?

Therefore the principal issue between the PA and the UNP is who can best implement their common policies. on most issues now there is very little to choose between them, whether it be the market economy or the addiction to corruption or the practice of vote rigging. They are all doing it. The only variable is leadership What wares has the UNP to offer in the realm of leadership that is superior to the PA's? Let us now turn to that all important question.

concluded

Marxism and the millennium
[Yesterday May 1st marked the last May Day of the Millennium]

by Dayan Jayatilleke
Looking back from the cusp of the second and third millennia, the October Revolution of 1917 remains the 'greatest' - in the sense of the defining - event of the 20th Century. I would go so far as to argue that it is the pivotal event of the last two centuries. This is so for two reasons. Firstly the trajectory of the 19th Century bourgeois revolutions of Europe, including the defeat of their left wing and the crushing of proletarian uprisings seemed to have paved the way for the Socialist revolution of 1917 and the model of the state that was erected (the drowning in blood of the Paris Commune resulted in a 'never again' determination on the part of Russia's Bolsheviks.

Secondly, all important events of the 20th Century in considerable part, either led to (WWI), were spin offs from, or reactions to (including the rise of Nazism) Oct. 1917 and the state that resulted from it. Therefore, Eric Hobsbawm was wrong when he defined the 20th Century as a 'short' one, extending from 1914 to 1989. I would counterpose the thesis of a 'long twentieth century' extending from 1848 (or 1871 ) to date.

Seventy five years ago this January, Lenin died.

Eighty years ago this March, the Communist or the Third International (which went down in history as the legendary Comintern) was founded by Lenin in Moscow, symbolising and embodying the vision of world revolution and world wide socialism. Fifty years ago, in 1949, that vision seemed realisable with the Chinese Revolution having triumphed and the USSR having become a nuclear power. With the world's largest and the world's most populous countries within the socialist camp, it only seemed a matter of time. Ten years later, the vision was dented by the incipient split in the socialist camp, but the world revolutionary process was still ongoing with the victory of the Cuban Revolution and indeed had extended for the first time to the Western Hemisphere.

Thirty years ago the once proud socialist camp was no more, armed clashes had broken out between its two main citadels; by the end of the year, 1969, Che, Ho Chi Minh and Carlos Marighela were dead - but the world revolutionary process was still a reality, centred on the titanic struggle of the Vietnamese against the mightiest superpower on earth.

Is it possible to recapture the emotions of a mere twenty years back in the year 1979, when despite the pro-US foreign policy trajectory of China, the faith in a world revolutionary process felt fully vindicated? In that year alone, the Iranian people overthrow the Shah, the isolation of the Cuban Revolution was broken and Che seemed reborn in the Sandinista victory in Nicaragua; the horrendous Pol Pot and Hafizullah Amin aberrations were overcome by Vietnamese and Soviet forces respectively in Kampuchea and Afghanistan - and the historical moment was symbolised by Fidel assuming the Chairmanship of the newly radicalised Non Aligned Movement in Havana (in which capacity he addressed the UN General Assembly the next year and received a standing ovation).

But 10 years ago, in 1989, that vision was stood on its head, beginning with the defeat and extinction of the German Democratic Republic.

What is the scenario today, in 1999, and what might things look like a decade down the road?

If the 'negation' of the world revolutionary process and socialism took so short a period, then having been through "the suffering, the patience and the labour of the negative" (Hegel: The Phenomenology of Mind), at least from the collapse of the USSR in '91 is it not possible that the 'negation of the negation' may also take a similarly short time? Is there a case now for historical optimism?

Marxism's Prospects

Where does Marxist Socialism - as distinct from Western Social Democracy, leftism, progressivism and anti-imperialism in general - stand at the end of the century? And what are its prospects?

Marxism may be disaggregated into three aspects or dimensions: (social) scientific paradigm, ideology/doctrine, political movement. The latter two dimensions have a more or less autonomous existence. Any ideology or doctrine can survive only if it stands in some relation to an existing organised collective or if it gives rise to such a collective. In sum, ideology or doctrine requires an organisational form, a body of men and women united in common purpose, be it as precursor, accompaniment or resultant of that ideology. So it is with Marxism. Marxism as an ideology requires a Marxist political movement. So long as the Cuban Revolution remains alive and socialist, Marxism as a political faith will survive.

Whether Marxism has a future as a political movement though depends crucially on whether or not the Communist Party of Russia and its allies win the elections scheduled for Dec. 1999 and the Year 2OOO. The 20th Century is ending in one important sense in the manner in which it began, with Russia as 'the weakest link in the chain of imperialism'. If the resurgent Communist movement in Russia is unable to make a breakthrough by next year then Marxism as a political movement will not outlive the 20th Century by many years. Nor by extension will Marxism as a political ideology. The converse is also true: if Gennady Zyuganov wins, (aided by Russian reactions to NATO expansion and criminal aggression in Yugoslavia) the resultant shock to the global stock markets may well trigger the next stage of the world economic crisis, the first stage of which was the East Asian one. In such a context the social instability and impoverishment may cause an upswing in the prospects for Communist political movement(s) - and resurgence of the viability of Marxism as an ideology; though it must be added that non Marxist protest movements will probably be the primary manifestation.

Matters are somewhat different with the fate of Marxism as an intellectual trend.

The influence and fortunes of a philosophical (or social scientific school) of thought are relatively autonomous of political facts on the ground. The most dramatic example is of course Greek Philosophy and its rediscovery and revival during the Renaissance! Inasmuch as the struggle between the haves and the have-nots continues and shall continue within the iniquitous world system, there will always be critical and liberationist tendencies and discourses which may find space for this or that aspect of Marxist thought . In that specific and limited - but important - sense Marxism may witness the most surprising and unpredictable rediscoveries, reassertions and accommodations.

What is Marxism?

All said and done, what is the irreducible strength of Marxism? What is its lasting relevance? Let us answer that by means of an even bolder operation, attempting to confront an even more fundamental question: 'what is Marxism'.

Marxism is a philosophy and theory of contradiction and struggle. It is a theory that uncovers and illumines the contradictions and latent conflicts inherent in society, economy, politics and history. It is also a theory that provides methodologies and prospects for struggle. Finally it is a philosophy that provides guidance and inspiration in and for the process of struggle as central to strategies for change (i.e. for altering or obtaining outcomes).

In this sense - and not solely as a historical contribution - Marxism will always have a place in human thought within the domain reserved for political philosophy and the social sciences (including economics). It will retain its utility just as the compass the telescope and the rifle retain theirs though these are improved upon in terms of sophistication by successive, even revolutionary modifications and versions.

As a 'tool of thought' and 'weapon of criticism' then, Marxism remains unsurpassed. This does not mean that this weapon cannot and should not be supplemented by others - be it radical psychoanalysis, liberation theology, postmodernism or post-structuralism. The problem is when Marxism as a weapon of criticism and indeed as the main weapon of criticism is sought to be supplanted and not just supplemented by these and other schools of thought.

It is a problem because of the relative superiority by far of Marxism - and conversely, the relative inferiority by far of its competitors.

A great many philosophies, ideologies religions doctrines and schools of thought, some long anterior to Marxism and others 'subsequent' to it (e.g. Feminism) have focused on and decried injustice in this or that sphere of society or even in society as a whole. However none before or since have the variegated, ramified - yet internally linked - massive conceptual apparatus Marxism has, or more accurately is.

There are ancient philosophers whose insights into human behaviour, politics and history make them far superior thinkers to Marx. However when it comes to the critique of society as a whole i.e. a complex unevenly structured totality with many domains (economics, politics, ideology etc.) Marx is probably the greatest genius produced by humankind. Again let me qualify: there are other far older philosophers who afford a more essential grasp of human society - but not a more sophisticated and extensive critique of it. Marx was therefore arguably the greatest critical genius and Marxism the most superior critical philosophy and social science produced by humanity certainly in the second millennium - with no visible signs of suppression in terms of superiority/width of application as we enter the Third.

This being so, attempts to substitute 'post Marxisms' or pre Marxisms (or a combination thereof) for Marxism as the main weapon of critique of society, benefits only the status quo. The iniquitous world system (which Andre Gunder Frank argues has a continuous history of at least five millennia) can only benefit from the application of lesser weapons of criticism!

This is true for another quite important reason which I diverted to earlier: Marxism not only is a weapon of criticism, it contains within it a guiding attitudes and strategies for struggle. Marxism is not only the unsurpassed theory for understanding the world, it is also the unsurpassed philosophy for changing it in a fundamental radical sense.

Latter day Marxist thinkers, including outstanding ones like Nicos Poulantzas, Ralph Miliband and Regis Debray were quite wrong when they asserted that Marxism has no theory of politics. Marx and Engels wrote extensively on the various phases of the bourgeois revolution in Europe, specially France and Germany. Their journalistic corpus and joint correspondence covered politics in Britain, America and the colonies. Their incessant interventions within the First and (in Engels's case) Second Internationals - and the German Social Democratic Party in particular, constitute the third swathe of their political writing. All of these provided Lenin with enormous inspirations and explicit points of reference in his own Herculean political project.

Taken together, the political writings of Marx, Engels and Lenin have a relevance far beyond the confines of their times and circumstances. I would argue that they contain a politics, a set of strategies and tactics as well as a philosophy of politics for the perennial use of the dominated classes - just as Kautilya and Machiavelli contain perennial political guidelines for the privileged and ruling classes - transcending their concrete origins. Marxism-Leninism then is definable as the organic political philosophy of the working classes and oppressed peoples of the world. As a subset, the military writings of Mao and Giap on peoples war constitute the organic military philosophy of the world's oppressed. Mao and Giap are the Clausewitzes of the oppressed.

Thus Marxism is a tool-cum-weapon with multiple use - as a method of analyses and critique and a strategic orientation for struggle and change. As we leave behind the second millennium for the third it is therefore still the best theory for understanding the world while striving to change it - two indispensably interrelated tasks.

The problem for Marxism has been a schism or asymmetry that opened up rather like a huge pair of scissors roughly in the final quarter of the 20th Century. While Marxism has remained a weapon of criticism of unsurpassed calibre, the 'criticism by weapon' of the existing system has increasingly been carried out under the banner of non-Marxian, sometimes anti- Marxist, doctrines. The world system is global and Marxism has been the most universal available system of thought. However the operation of the phenomenon of uneven development has brought particularisms - national, ethnic, regional, local - to the forefront of reactions to that world system. often these particularisms are coupled with quasi universalisms or pseudo universalisms, broader than nationalism but identifiable with certain civilisations or cultures. Here one refers of course to religious or religion-based militancy.

These movements, ethno-religious/ethno-national, have found their philosophies to be faster, more effective vehicles of mobilisation than leftists found Marxism to be. True, such doctrines have greater emotive power and can do great damage to the status quo. But as much as the core mechanism of the unjust world system remain economic, Marxism remains the deepest going critique - and socialist transformation the deepest going structural change - of that system. The competing doctrines and programmes are intrinsically incapable of affecting the world system in so fundamental a sense. Thus, no doctrine - religious, ethno-nationalist, post- modernist, feminist - goes to the root of things i.e. is as radical as Marxism.

Plainly put, NATO does not mind if one is a feminist (however radical) or a post-modernist, but it does mind if one is a Communist or a nationalist! This is because the material reality of the world order is one of imperialism and capitalism - not patriarchy! And that is what counts. No political personality was more of a model for today's intellectuals than Vaclav Havel - and on April 23rd there he was at NATO's 50th anniversary summit, a literate lackey of the global power elite. Bill and Hilary Clinton, Tony and Cherie Blair, Vaclav Havel - all the pin ups of the postmodernist/feminist/deconstructionist intelligentsia and all committed to the project of global dominance and intervention, all partisans of the B-2 bomber and the navel blockade.

One of the challenges for Marxists in and of the new millennium is to close the scissors, to seek to bring in to congruence the weapon of criticism and the criticism by weapon. This is not meant as advocacy of a return to an armed struggle strategy, but if such a strategy is rendered (or deemed) inevitable by the vanguards of the oppressed, their practice should sought to be inspired, guided and equipped with the Marxist weapon of criticism i.e. Marxist theory, strategy and the humanitarian values and ethics of peoples War.

To maximise the chances of such an outcome, Marxists at the turn of the millennium - today's Marxists - have certain tasks and responsibilities.

Which brings us to one of the most interesting temperaments of the 20th Century - Ernesto Che Guevara. Already while a militant, rigorous and exacting Marxist - Leninist, Che was envisaging a Post Marxist Marxism!

"When asked whether or not we are Marxists, our position is the same as that of a physicist or a biologist when asked if he is a 'Newtonian' or if he is a 'Pasteurian'.

There are truths so evident, so much a part of peoples knowledge, that it is now useless to discuss them. one ought to be 'Marxist' with the same naturalness with which one is 'Newtonian' in physics and 'Pasteurian' in biology, considering that if facts determine new concepts, these new concepts will never divest themselves on that portion of truth possessed by the older concepts they have outdated. Such is the case for example, of Einsteinan relativity or of Planck's 'quantum' theory with respect to discoveries by Newton; they take nothing at all away from the greatness of the learned Englishman. Thanks to Newton, physics was able to advance until it had achieved new concepts of space. The learned Englishman provided the necessary stepping-stone for them.

The advances of social and political science, as in other fields, belong to a long historical process whose links are connecting, adding up, moulding and constantly perfecting themselves. In the origin of peoples, there exists a Chinese, Arab or Hindu mathematics, today, mathematics has no frontiers. In the course of history there was a Greek Pythagoras, an Italian Galilio, an English Newton, a German Gauss, a Russian Lobachevsky, an Einstein etc. thus in the field of social and political sciences, from Democritus to Marx, a long series of thinkers added their original investigations and accumulated a body of experience and of doctrines.

The merit of Marx is that he suddenly produces a qualitative change in the history of social thought. He interprets history, understands its dynamic, predicts the future, but in addition to predicting it (which would satisfy his scientific obligation), he expresses a revolutionary concept: the world must not only be interpreted, it must be transformed. Man ceases to be the slave and tool of his environment and converts himself into the architect of his own destiny. At that moment Marx puts himself in a position where he becomes the necessary target of all who have a special interest in maintaining the old - similar to Democritus before him, whose work was burned by Plato and his disciples, the ideologues of Athenian slave aristocracy." (Ideology of Cuban Revolution - 1960).

This view seems to have been one shared by two other luminous and creative minds, namely Amilcar Cabral of Guinea Bissau and Carlos Fonseca Amador (founder of the Nicaraguan Sandinistas). These were practitioners of an applied Marxism. There was however an observable distinction between their discourse and that of Che, who kept pushing the boundaries of Marxism outward from within, remaining explicitly and avowedly Marxist while being genius enough to envisage and recommend a de-ideologised and largely scientific future for Marxism which could be incorporated into social science in particular and thus into the mainstream of scientific thought.

I would argue that Marxism as 'theoretically practiced' by Che is a necessary stepping stone to Marxism as envisaged by Che. Jon Lee Anderson and Jorge Castaneda's massive biographies finally put paid to the lie that Che was claimable or assimilable by Trotskyism of nay stripe and gives conclusively proof of his explicit and repeated support for Stalin. His Marxism was thus a particularly dialectical synthesis: a rejection of the 'soft' Marxism of the de-Stalinizers, a strong support for Stalin, a sympathy yet non identification with Mao and the Chinese line, and a fiercely independent - near heretical addressing of certain problems of Marxism. An unusual combination then of hard orthodoxy (Stalin), a total rejection of dogmatism, and an 'edge of the envelope' creative Marxism. This combination of orthodoxy and extreme unorthodox is precisely what characterised the Marxism of Antonio Gramsci (and his predecessor Antonio Labriola), and of course those theologians of the Catholic Church such as Thomas Aquinas and Teilhard de Chardin who managed to produce that synthesis of continuity and change in philosophy that was necessary for the doctrine to adapt, survive fightback and move into the future.

My conclusion is that the two types of Marxism - of Che and Amilcar Cabral i.e. of creative/explicit Marxism and applied/implicit Marxism are the two legs that contemporary Marxists have to walk on, the twin theoretical practices they have to engage in, the dual modes they have to function in, if Marxism is to have in the 21st Century and the third millennium the future that Che strategically envisaged for it.

Two Targets, one Enemy

While Marxism has to be applied and developed absolutely omnidirectionally and continuously so, with no subject area seen as too remote, abstract or too irrelevant, there are two main and inescapable contradictions which today's Marxists must address themselves to. These contradictions constitute the main axes of advance for Marxism or two strategic targets that Marxism has to engage at this time.

1) At the level of politics: The struggle against the hegemonic project of the sole superpower. The US hopes to maintain and protract the historical moment of unipolar hegemony. This is manifested in its aggressive, interventionist and militaristic policy of degrading the soverignty of independent states. This policy of serial state cleansing is meant at changing the norms of the global state system, deconstructing the global political super structure and redrawing the world map. The aim is quite simply world domination.

In response the strategy should be one of a global anti-hegemonic alliance based on the defence of national independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity. This alliance would include countries, nations and peoples. It would also take many concrete forms ranging from the Belarus President's idea of an anti-NATO bloc to a worldwide movement of solidarity with Russia in the event of a Communist victory (or Communist-nationalist) victory at the elections.

2) At the level of economics: The new phase of imperialism, that of globalisation, and its strategy neoliberalism are characterised by a) an unprecedented integration of the world economy, b) a new division of labour, c) information technology as the hegemonic means of production, d) the predominance of speculative-financial capital over manufacture and consequently the dominance of that faction of capital within global and local power blocs, e) the asymmetry between the new needs of the mobility of capital and the old political superstructure of the world, i.e. the sovereign nation-state based global inter-state system which corresponded to the needs of the earlier phase of imperialism, f) a rapid increase in both pauperisation and polarisation on a world scale and g) a rapid shift in wealth towards the speculative-financial bourgeoisie in the metropolitan centres and their nationally sited facilitators, the dependent comprador bourgeoisie, in the Third World.

The response to this requires the construction of the broadest possible anti-comprador united fronts bringing together all possible classes and strata (including the middle and even the big manufacturing bourgeoisie) in a bloc against the neo-liberal model. While this front must be as inclusionary as possible the initiation must not wait for the incorporation of this or that segment of the bourgeoisie and the whole project must pivot upon a programme capable of rapidly raising the standards of living of the majority of the populace.

Two corresponding united fronts then mirroring parallel strategies: an anti-hegemonic front and an anti-comprador front. Common to both is the recognition of the main enemy and the primary aspect of the primary contradiction - imperialism. It is on the whetstone of anti-imperialism (which organically include the struggle against its national local allies), that Marxism can continue to be sharpened. This refers to Marxism as theory and as intellectual trend - and not just as political ideology and doctrine. For Marxism as theory has to be sharply demarcated from academic, or professorial (as Luxemburg called it) Marxism, with its sterile, narrow and self serving scholasticism. Conversely these twin strategic tasks are not compulsory papers that Marxists of whatever stripe must answer! Rather they are indispensable points of reference and invaluable sources of inspiration.

Which brings us in conclusion to the old question of theory and practice - or what used to be called the unity of theory and practice; a formulation that almost forgot that this unity is not a simple, mechanical unity but a dialectical one i.e. a complex contradictory unity. It is nevertheless an unity: true theoretical insights are possible if motivated, even if only in the last instance, by an attempt to change things in the direction of social progress. Qualitative change for the betterment of the downtrodden is possible only when guided, illumined and informed by an advanced theory i.e. by a system of correct ideas (as Mao put it). Theory involves and requires struggle - with its concomitant labour, pain and sacrifice. Struggle requires theory. Genuine theory translates itself into promptings to action, to concrete incarnation - which in turn comes up against the resistance of the old, the conventional and the oppressive. In short, genuine theory gestates practice, struggle. Serious struggle on the other hand prompts reflection, generalisation, conclusions. Struggle thus leads into the realm of serious conceptual thinking i.e. of theory.

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